Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.

UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.

UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.

In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 153 of 156
1 … 152 153 154 … 156

  7. guytaur

    [The Greens are thinking long term you are thinking short term is the answer to that.]

    More spin.

    As I said, quite happy to panic when it gets to 33%.

    So 27% to go.

  8. zoomster

    Carbon Pricing is long term thinking.
    So is the Greens position on food security.
    So therefore you agree with Minchin that long term thinking is spin then?
    I do not think you mean that.

  9. The Finnigans

    [Oh dear, everyone is talking about The BISONs and Tony Abbott is talking about the BOATs]
    The BBC trumped them with BISONs in BOATs !!
    [Poland sent seven bison – one male and six females – to Bornholm by ferry last week. “They look very well,” project manager Tommy Hansen told the BBC.]
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18355211

  13. confessions @ 7464

    victoria:

    MTBW is living in the past.

    What a dopey comment. MTBW knows more about ALP campaigning, policies, tactics etc than you will ever know. Same goes for your echo, victoria.

  15. [Another point that I welcomed was that Laura mentioned the ‘short memories’ of the msm. Virtually said that most were wet behind the ears and knew no history beyond their own year or two.
    That’s why we all get so frustrated in interviews, I think. “Why didn’t he ask…?”]

    lizzie – That was a really good comment from Tingle. I’m amazed at the lack of research the young journos do. It’s as if nothing ever happened before Nov 24, 2007.

    Chris Kenny tweeted the other daywtte that the OO had a fabulous VIP being highlighted in the OO this weekend. If it’s Rebekkah Brooks then I’m laughing at the joke.

  16. [What a dopey comment. MTBW knows more about ALP campaigning, policies, tactics etc than you will ever know. Same goes for your echo, victoria.]

    well, you are still living in the past, move on from 1975

  20. guytaur

    when it comes to climate change, there is sound evidence that it is happening and that it is a direct threat.

    I’ve asked you to provide evidence that greater foreign ownership threatens food security. You haven’t been able to do that.

    As I’m evidence driven in my policy making, I want to see evidence that something’s a problem before action is taken.

    Our foreign land ownership numbers have not changed. No one has demonstrated a (proveable) threat to our food security, either now or in the future.

    Thus all we are left with is scare mongering, with no evidential base.

    When parties base policies on scare mongering, rather than evidence, then their motives should be questioned.

  22. [Wonder if JG will wear her angry face on Qanda Monday night?]

    victoria – those rabid Canberrra journos won’t be asking the same tired old questions in the same old disrespectful tone 🙂

  23. zoomster

    You are deliberately ignoring the point. Thus you show you have no regard except for your narrow political interest. Climate change is the problem and the impact it is going to have.
    Calling people who look at this and look to the long term national interest racist is wrong.
    Greens are not like the Nationals and you should have realised that by now.

  24. victoria @ 7492

    DG

    You may not be familiar with what happened in the AFL this week. game between Gold Coast and Collingwood. GC player who is Nigerian background was being taunted by Collingwood supporter. It was a Collingwood player who identified the supporter, and this person has had his membership revoked and writtenn a letter of apology to the GC player.

    Thanks for posting that. I wasn’t aware as I studiously ignore AFL but that is just great and is a model to be emulated.

  27. [I will accept that you are not nudging into anti-catholic bigotry.]

    In fact, I can make a good argument that antiGrouper activism is proRC, given the number of RCs who simply ignore the church’s stance on “moral” issues (posted by BK this morning 82% of Catholics say birth control is morally acceptable) and that ready Internet access to information meant more people could cross-check “information”: that Oz was the only nation/ state in the world where failure to sent RC children to RC schools was a mortal (or even a venial) sin; that Papal Infallibility and Catholic Action were Vatican responses to loss of its Papal states to a Unified Italy in 1860 etc; that during the church’s 1st millennium, priests could marry (the ban reached England c AD1100- forget the actual date; Wales was the last to have to toe the line on that idiocy.)

    This is the second time the Vatican has been caught pursuing untenable policies during an Information Revolution: with printing presses common throughout Europe, it sold indulgences and alienated Luther and Calvin; then tried to halt Protestantism through the appalling Inquisition and outright war through militant Catholic states (eg Spain) – which seriously diminished most such states (esp Spain). Not, in retrospect, anything like truly Christian, or even vaguely intelligent policies.

    BTW, love it that Spanish might’s last hurrah was against a red-headed part-Welsh (Tudor was a Welsh House – ‘ranga’ red hair is a Viking legacy) woman who was not about to lie down and die when facing overpowering odds!

  28. Something that some of the more aggressive posters might reflect upon:

    “The fundamental cause of trouble in the world is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
    ― Bertrand Russell, Mortals and Others 1: American Essays 1931-35

  29. guytaur

    and I could say exactly the same about you.

    However, I have provided evidence which suggests that foreign ownership is not in any way a real or immediate threat, and certainly not one which deserves to be anywhere towards the top of any party’s agenda.

    You haven’t provided a scrap.

    Instead, you’re just blindly defending your party’s position without question.

    I come here to PB to have my arguments tested. It’s better I stuff up here than in a radio interview heard by thousands of people, or in a media release. If I can’t support my party’s position here, based on the information I have, I know I need to go away and do more research, or refine my argument.

    I don’t blindly accept anything.

    If you want your arguments in defence of your party to be taken seriously, you need to do the same.

  33. Tried to get a letter on BISONS in the Adelaide Advertiser, but it was squeezed out by boat people and economic gloomsters.

  35. bemused – politics and the way it is played has changed since your, MTBW and my early days.

    Gallop had some suggestions and comments about it this morning. The voters are ahead of the pollies and the journos at the moment. We cannot do everything the way it was done years ago. New era, new thinking and new methods of reaching people have to be taken into account as well has the pollies turning up to the ‘ening of an envelope’, doorknocking, and speaking at public meetings.

    Miss out on the new media and you can forget the younger voters.

  36. The case against Carbon pricing gets weaker every month. Abbott & co will ultimately lose this debate, even if he wins the election.

    […once South Korea starts trading in 2015, 27 of 34 OECD members will have a national carbon price. The exceptions include the US, Canada and Japan. It comes as the US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a scheme covering power plants in nine states, this week reported its emissions fell by 23 per cent over three years.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/australia-not-alone-on-carbon-pricing-combet-20120608-201qn.html#ixzz1xG3bZCKz

  37. zoomster

    You are ignoring the IPCC conclusions. I guess you also ignore Defence Department reviews of possible national security threats too.

    I do not do chapter and verse on those assessments. Precisely because I am not going onto radio and speaking such things. If I did then yes I would have those assessments ready to refer to. Though most media only want broad brush outline for laymen to understand.
    You want to go to that detail because you are going on radio then go and look up a Greens spokespersons comment on the record.
    Do not attack me because I am not a spokesperson and have made plain I am not a spokesperson.

  41. muttleymcgee @ 7529

    What a ridiculous question. You clearly don’t understand the situation that the electorate, rightly or wrongly, loathes Gillard. On the other hand Rudd is much more popular than either Gillard or Abbott. If this were not he case there would be no issue arising.

    The Gospel according to St Bemused.

    Why thank you for canonising me, but it is merely stating what the polls say and not agreeing in any way with that outcome. I would certainly rate Gillard a long way above Abbott.

    What a shame we all don’t have his perception, intelligence, humility, modesty and good looks.

    Thank you again, but in all modesty I must protest that I posses those attributes in moderation. In in this context all I display is an ability to read what the polls say.

    Time to set up recording the AllBlacks sorting Ireland and the Wallabies struggling with Wales. Is it true that Deans is to get a knighthood for services to NZ Rugby?

    Is that on free to air?

  42. Speaking of the Victorian Legislative Council, how do others feel about the proposal to rename it to the Victorian State Senate, with MLC’s becoming ‘State Senators’?

  44. There is a PB lunch on saturday 16 June at 12.30 in Norwood Adelaide. Any PBer who is not already down as attending and would like to join us, please get in contact with me through William so that I can add you to the booking.

  46. [However, I have provided evidence which suggests that foreign ownership is not in any way a real or immediate threat, and certainly not one which deserves to be anywhere towards the top of any party’s agenda.]

    Zoomster – direct from Emmo this morning. Barnaby Joyce and Christine Milne are playing this up for their own political game. As long as the Govt. keeps on controlling it like this we have nothing to fear.

    [Proportion of Oz farms foreign owned = 1%. Area 0f farmland foreign owned = 6.0%, an increase of 0.1% since 1984.]

  49. zoomster

    I’ve been trying to follow your discussion with guytaur on food security. Do you have any source of info that I can follow up pls?

  50. [Thanks WWP for the praise. Context is important though and people reading you post of my comment should refer back to the context in which it was posted.]

    ^.<

Comments Page 153 of 156
1 … 152 153 154 … 156

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *