Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 112 of 116
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  2. Rossmore @ 5538

    There is surely hope for us all if even Bemused is now, furtively, tentatively, tangenitally acknowledgeing the possibility of the PMoA’s legitimacy.

    I have never said otherwise.
    But that does not change the fact that I think the events of June 2010 were a bad mistake.

  4. I reckon we should all have a New Season resolution for the first day of winter:

    Lets be nice to each other

    what do you think?

  5. [I’m calling that for what it is bullshit.]

    The last vestige for a bully is to scream and shout about everyone else lying.

  7. comfessions

    Apart from everything else, he is as stubborn as a mule. Anyhow, I will leave it at that. It is a waste of energy

  8. Victoria and Bemused. You can both bang on about each other endlessly but I’d really prefer you devoted your bile and anger to the Tories.

  12. sprocket_ @ 5547

    no, you never are the instigator of these insults.

    Yep! Nothing preceded that. There is no history…

  13. Dolphie, you knows I never says the magic word ‘xcept in private, ‘cos if I did it wouldn’t be majik any mores.

    As to being miserable, am NOT. It’s been a goodish week, and the newly fed, oiled, and groomed BISONs are looking farking magnificent.

  14. [Thats a great line, Mike Kelly should be front and centre more often.]

    Sometimes you’re a prick.

    But that is pure gold.

  15. [You mean I have the temerity to fight fire with fire? Get used to it.]

    Hilarious. It was only the other day you were screaming at Kezza2 and whingeing at William about kezza’s swearing.

    Yet since then we’ve seen Bushfire Bill, ShowsOn, bluegreen, and other male commenters use the OMG f-word with no complaint from you.

    This is why the women on this site such as myself freely declare you to be the misogynist, sexist bully you come across as.

  17. Bemused: ” But that does not change the fact that I think the events of June 2010 were a bad mistake.”

    I acknowledge there is a still a lot of bitterness about June 10, but perhaps we all need to move on. Whatever our differences in the past we are surely all united in the need to ensure an ALP victory at the next election.

  19. Puffy @ 5540

    I might not agree with all Bemused ideas, but I have never seen him have a go at someone by referring their kids.

    Puffy… you don’t always agree with me??? Quelle horreur!!!

    I regard you as a serious poster (one of relatively few) who I always pay heed to whether we agree or not.

    It s about sharing opinions and not a mutual admiration society.

  21. [I reckon we should all have a New Season resolution for the first day of winter:

    Lets be nice to each other

    what do you think?]

    Why? its Labor winter of discontent and there being discontented.

    Labor will not rest easy as one until they return to the warm embrace of the opposition benches which they know so well that some could call it motherly. Labor always do better when in opposition.

  23. Lighten up guys!

    Read this:

    david ewart ‏@davidbewart

    I’m Tony Abbott. I’m scared of humour and free speech. Humourous free speech is my worst nightmare.’

    😀

  24. Bemused:

    [But that does not change the fact that I think the events of June 2010 were a bad mistake.]

    So did I, but for different reasons – specifically the likely waste of a magnificent two-term PM – but I am still not without hope.

    ML:

    [I reckon we should all have a New Season resolution for the first day of winter:

    Lets be nice to each other]

    Good idea – at the very least let’s cut the ad homs and get our teeth into the policies – instead of tearing into each other. No doubt that would please you, ML
    😀

  26. victoria @ 5560

    bemused

    I have said my piece, and despite being younger than you, I am not going to engage further

    I have never held your youth and inexperience against you 😉

  30. Just a personal observation. I have been on a LOT of message boards over the years and seen many flame wars. Too many to mention. There was a lot of fun had on the old alt. boards in the old days. Getting distracted but basically the level of abuse on this board is pretty bad. Even by old messageboard standards.

    People like bemused do this board not favour at all, and before him people like frank. They seem to have no concept of civil discourse.

    What I say here will have no effect on future events on this forum, as those wanting to behave the way they have will continue that behaviour ad infinitum. I say it only for the personal satisfaction of saying it is now ‘off my chest’.

  31. Victoria

    I have not been following the discussion but it is a little hypocritical to rudely abuse Bemused for being abusive Huh!!!!!!!

    You were pretty offensive yourself. Do not know nor care who started it but if you do not like abuse do not abuse others. Simple really.

  32. Sometimes I think William should have a speakers role. Complete with salary and Deputy Speaker and Office. At times it certainly reaches Parliamentary Question Time level of debate.

  33. Rossmore @ 5567

    Bemused: ” But that does not change the fact that I think the events of June 2010 were a bad mistake.”

    I acknowledge there is a still a lot of bitterness about June 10, but perhaps we all need to move on. Whatever our differences in the past we are surely all united in the need to ensure an ALP victory at the next election.

    Indeed. There is no reason why we cannot hold differing opinions and still get along fine.

    Of course I expect the same to apply when the leadership changes in a couple of months 😉

  34. Mod Lib @ 5568

    I see everyone is ganging up on bemused tonight.

    There is always someone being bullied here…

    Yep… that’s the culture.

    Not that it bothers me. I have seen off worse bullies than this pack.

  36. Guytaur:

    [Sometimes I think William should have a speakers role. Complete with salary and Deputy Speaker and Office. At times it certainly reaches Parliamentary Question Time level of debate.]

    So who is the current challenger for the Pynetum Trophy?

  40. fiona @ 5574

    So did I, but for different reasons – specifically the likely waste of a magnificent two-term PM – but I am still not without hope.

    I agree with that in a way.
    Julia Gillard was not yet ready. Damn shame what that did to both her and Rudd.
    We now move forward and make the best of the hand we have been dealt.

  42. [I see everyone is ganging up on bemused tonight.

    There is always someone being bullied here…]

    Mod, coming from my Fav #ElDicko, that is pretty stupid

  43. [Our all singing and running glittered turd is still going to lead us to victory over Labor and Gillard.]

    In case you’re wondering about the definition of phyrric victory…

  46. deflationite @ 5580

    People like bemused do this board not favour at all, and before him people like frank. They seem to have no concept of civil discourse.

    Hey, lumping me in with Frank is really going too far.

    Ever wondered why we have never exchanged cross words? Simple really, you have never abused me so I have never abused you. Can’t say that about some others here. I suggest you have a look at the history and put things in context.

  47. [Yet since then we’ve seen Bushfire Bill, ShowsOn, bluegreen, and other male commenters use the OMG f-word with no complaint from you.]

    It is true. I have used the F word. I do feel bad when I do it. But I dont do it at people, just their comments (oh and Tony Abbott).

  48. Bemused problem
    Is he cannot stop thinking of kevin,

    Kevin is in most of his posts, if his posts .
    I woukd think bemused mentiones kevin more than the ms m

    The post above his name is not mentioned but implyied,

    Its truly remarkable
    To be a one man band,

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  49. Bemused
    [Not that it bothers me. I have seen off worse bullies than this pack.]
    Never let bullies grind you down!

  50. Bemused

    “Of course I expect the same to apply when the leadership changes in a couple of months”

    Spoken like a true Machiavellian, but not a true believer…

Comments are closed.

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