Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition

Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).

Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.

The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 30
1 2 3 4 … 30

  3. [If I was advising the Coalition (which I am not by the way)]

    [I don’t know Barry]

    Mod,

    It’s OK. Nobody thought you were a big-shot insider.

  4. [ It is very funny seeing the Libtards trying to guess what Liberal policy is. A hoot. ]

    Indeed, BW,

    Maybe it’s because the carrier pigeons from Central HQ haven’t yet lobbed?

  6. wizzer

    Here we go again.
    [The Greens hate high paid Australians]
    The Greens demographic is of elite inner suburb professionals. Ya know, people on higher than average incomes.

    Sigh. Your strike rate is 0 out of 4 so far.

    Miners who pay generous dividends – 0
    Miners who pay high hourly rates – 0
    Hundreds of competitors to the big 4 banks – 0
    Greens hate people on high incomes – 0

    Why do you bother?

  7. [Mick77
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
    Of course Abbott’s Direct Action is a load of nonsense and most punters believe it’ll disappear if he wins next election and they don’t care.]
    Sounds like something YOU don’t care about. Then it’s okay if that promise is broken.
    Sound quite hypocritical, but don’t let that bother your conscience.

    [However “liar liar” doesn’t get a guernsey when it’s a promise to do something that you then don’t do – there’s a score of those after every election.]
    Yeah, where?
    [The backflips that hurt and bring on the liar/untrustworthy stigma are promises that you won’t do something controversial, or saying nothing about a major policy, which you then go ahead and do, eg Work Choices, Carbon Tax, Qld Asset Sales.]
    Phew, that was lucky, wasn’t it. WorkChoices and CarbonTax cancel each other out federally. Oh, but wait, there was a State non-promise – Qld Asset Sales – AND somehow that magically makes your backflip hurt, and federally too.

    Makes it a big, fat, lying untrustworthy piece of shite federally. Are you for f**king real!

    Or is that just you trying it on, to see how the lie would go in the electorate?

    You know, Liar Liar fits Abbott to a tee.
    I wouldn’t use it as a Liberal slogan.

  8. Loved the way that David Murray, a strong supporter of the Liberal Party, blamed the GFC for the poor performance of the Future Fund but Joe Hockey and his mates continue to tell us that the GFC didn’t happen here.

  9. It’s funny how libs put up a better fight against labors real enemy for future re election. The libs put down one nation while labor role over for a tummy rub from the greens.

  10. Wizzer. Wizzer. Are you there?

    Hmm. Seems every time I refute wizzer’s claims with facts, he/she/it then runs away to work out what his/her/its next lot of old bollocks will be.

  12. [Mod,

    It’s OK. Nobody thought you were a big-shot insider.]

    You mayn’t but others here always seem to think I am a plant from Lib HQ!

  14. [It is very funny seeing the Libtards trying to guess what Liberal policy is. A hoot.]

    Hmmm… define a Tory policy. Let’s see:

    A contradiction in terms?
    A colourles, tasteless, weightless gas?
    Something that the Three Stooges can all agree on – and this is very important – at the same time?
    An fragrant fresh Abbott brain fart?
    Anything that appeals to Annabelle Crabbe and makes it into her Tony Diary?
    Something the Tories get via email from Clive, Twiggy or Gina?
    An idea BA Santamaria thought was a goer 50 years ago?
    Anything Rupert Murdoch says is a good idea?
    Everything that happens to be the exact reverse of whatever Labor says and does?
    Anything the Reserve bank hates?
    Anything that keeps Senator Mary Joe Fisher out of the shops and up on her feet dancing?
    Anything Joe H can’t fit into his mouth?
    Something that gives Sinodinos cold sweats at night?
    One of the few things Pynie won’t cock lis leg upon on the floor of the House?

  15. [BH
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 8:40 pm | Permalink
    Loved the way that David Murray, a strong supporter of the Liberal Party, blamed the GFC for the poor performance of the Future Fund but Joe Hockey and his mates continue to tell us that the GFC didn’t happen here.]
    Ya gotta have the media on your side.
    In Australia, that means Rupert.

    The other non-Rupert reporters can’t even say what they think in case Fairfax gets the axe and they’re out of a job and there’s nowhere else to go.

    Look at the way Laura Tingle has rolled over.
    Once a fearless reporter, now a sycophant for her job.

    I read today, on Penbo’s Punch shite, that Murdoch only controls 38% of the media, yet has 75% of the circulation. WTF?

    You have to start to despair when not even the moderator/editor of the blog refuses to correct blatant disinformation. You’re out of a job if you don’t conform.

    It’s all totally f****d!
    And if I was Laura Tingle, I’d resign.
    Integrity would be my reason.

    But then again I’m used to living on next to nothing.

  16. [Wizzer. Wizzer. Are you there?

    Hmm. Seems every time I refute wizzer’s claims with facts, he/she/it then runs away to work out what his/her/its next lot of old bollocks will be.]

    He’s gone to spend some quality time with his wife.

  18. [Mick77
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink
    Kezza2 @107
    What the hell are you on about?]
    I’m not surprised you have no idea.
    I was replying to one of your nonsensical posts!
    😆

  19. Kezza – I’m with you Laura T. A definite change since Stutchbury took over AFR as editor altho I guess they are all so sure that Abbott is going to win so none of them are going to worry about being balanced at all. Their loss if some of no longer bother to read their articles. I thank those here who do and can precis what is written – it certainly saves my time.

  20. smithe,

    Spot on. Dead set. Hits the mark. The mental image of Pynie cocking a leg on the floor of the House or anywhere near furniture is a bit disturbing, though.

  21. Kezza2
    [I’m not surprised you have no idea.]
    Well maybe some understand your rant but now I’ve seen your next post where you declare
    [But then again I’m used to living on next to nothing.]
    it starts to make sense. Deprivation syndrome.

  22. [The libs put down one nation]
    BULLSHIT. After One Nation’s big show rattus rattus declared that the task was to win back their votes.Come on down dog whistling as the Coal’s their fave hobby.Beat them by becoming them.

  24. BTW, nice demolition job on the wizzer Dan.

    They have a strange view of the world, these Tories. But most especially Wizz.

    It’s breathtaking in it’s stupidity and almost like cargo-cultish so far as mining and mining companies are concerned. It’s a real revlation that anyone could continue to hold such views so far from Mt Hagen.

    Must be His Highland Home, I guess.

  25. mick77

    [I was replying to one of your nonsensical posts!
    The one about DAP @ 6.23pm]
    but, since you were unable to enlighten anybody about Abbott’s redundant DAP, I did it for you.

    That you were incapable of doing so is your problem.

  30. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
    NBN. One area I agree with.

    Well, kiss goodbye to it if your bunch gets up.]

    Too late to stop it now.

  31. BH
    [I thank those here who do and can precis what is written – it certainly saves my time]
    Me too.

    There’s so much info out there now.
    And I really appreciate the links provided by BK et al in the morning.

    And, as the day progresses, when I’m in and out, linking to all the other positive and/or negative sites. It’s all good. It all helps to promote a rounded opinion. A lot of it makes me sit and think and come up with my own opinion.

    The people who annoy me most are those who just sit and regurgitate the same old.

  35. Good. So the Libs here are all adamant that Direct Action is a crock of whatsit and that Abbott is lying when he says he supports it.

    So they’re also admitting that their man has no balls.

    He is – according to his supporters – so weak that he cannot put forward a decent argument to convince people that it’s better to spend money in areas other than climate change action.

    And yet – according to his supporters – the vast majority of voters know that he’s going to do this and yet are voting for him anyway.

    So – QED and evidently – Abbott wouldn’t lose any votes by admitting DA is a crock of whatsit and he has no intention of acting on climate change.

    So either he’s simply lying because he can’t help himself – and his supporters recognise that – or he is a total wimp.

    Either way, his supporters here demonstrate very clearly that you can only vote for Abbott if you don’t believe a word that he says, and thus can project your own ideas onto him.

    Clearly taking Abbott at face value is too ludicrous a prospect for them.

  37. [Dan Gulberry
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
    smithe

    Demolishing wizzer really isn’t hard to do.

    Dare I say, The Truth Hurts.]
    Good post, as usual 😀

    Dan, I have to thank you for posting the link to the mathematical genii who saved the Allies during WWII on the Daily Derp.

    The thing is I have a keen interest in code.
    Actually, forget it on here, I’ll post on your site.

    But, it’d be good if you posted the link again, here.
    For BW, if noone else!

  38. I was thinking of what major infrastructure projects were completed between 1996 to 2007 so I could find the cost-benefits analysis that surely would have been done and for the life of me I can’t think of any, I’m sure Howard did SOMETHING in that time, he did after all, manage to spend 300 billion dollars in 4 to 5 years.
    The reason why is because I’ve got people whinging that they’re not going to get the NBN within three years but amazingly enough these are the same people that were demanding a cost-benefits analysis be done. Freckling Amazingly hypocritical.

  39. Zoomster, it looks like the Tories have their very own little Liars Paradox to contend with.

    Good luck with that fellas.

  41. Smaug

    Surely you haven’t forgotten the Alice to Darwin Railway.
    Look here for cost benefit analysis:
    What! can’t find it.

    But, hey, it sure satisfied every LNP voter in the country.

  42. [I’m sure Howard did SOMETHING in that time, he did after all, manage to spend 300 billion dollars in 4 to 5 years.]

    He did build the Alice to Darwin railway from 2001.

    Don’t know about a costs/benefits analysis, though. There should have been one, I guess.

    The damn thing had only been on the drawing boards for about 80 years.

    As for the rest….can you spell PORK.

  43. zoom

    snap

    I reckon it must have had something to do with solving the dingo ate my baby episode.
    Always satisfies the LNP bloodlust.

  44. smithe

    confirming that the Liberal vote is built on:

    1. people who think Turnbull will be back as leader;

    OR

    2. people who don’t think Abbott means a word he says and don’t think his past performance is any guide to his future behaviour.

    Exactly what Group 2 think the Liberals are likely to deliver in government appears to be based on their own wishful thinking, rather than having even a skerrick of evidence behind it.

    If the commentators here are any true guide to Liberal supporters’ thinking, then come the election, Gillard won’t just win, she’ll win in a landslide.

    (I’m not expecting that those commentating here will become less deluded but am assuming that they’re the extreme rusted ons. I don’t think the general populace is as capable of the extreme mental gymnastics we’re seeing here tonight).

  45. [I’ve got people whinging that they’re not going to get the NBN within three years but amazingly enough these are the same people that were demanding a cost-benefits analysis be done. Freckling Amazingly hypocritical.]

    Well, if only The Rodent had used 1/6th of that $300 billion on an NBN, these concerned citizens could have had their State of the Art broadband as part of his 5-year PORK Fest. The full cost of the thing would have been fully covered and it would have been at least 1/2 completed by now.

    His pork wasn’t even useful pork. It was just Pork pork.

    The porking plunker.

  47. And, Smaug

    Don’t ever disagree with a long-time ALP candidate.
    You’ll never win.

    And, you’ll never get back on the right side, either.

Comments Page 3 of 30
1 2 3 4 … 30

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *