Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition

Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).

Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.

The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Geriatric Person,

    Your party rides along on the coat-tails of the greatest sheltered-workshop media advantage known in the free world. You’d be nothing without it, as you know.

  2. Oh feck, and the buzzards arrive.

    Right on cue.

    Shouldn’t you be off running a neighbourhood watch or Stand Your Ground meeting in Florida GP?

  3. Gotta love The Scottish Script: gives you the ability to view comments which you have, by default, chosen to be not shown.

    Not popular with Teh Management which would rather that uz should analyse all dishes of the repast before us.

  4. [“Devastating result for Labor. LOL – the primary vote is in free fall.

    Nice to know that Cuppa thinks media balance is superior in North Korea than Australia.”]

    I put it down to the QLD wipeout and Gillards comments “it wasn’t me!” which sounded more like “we aren’t listening!”

  5. I know its GP, but not much happening tonight:

    [Gillard is so hapless she started using “moving forward” again on Meet the Press.]

    The new premier of Queensland also mentioned “move forward”. I guess the ‘ing’ makes it different.

    [Then she went on about “who do you trust” when she’s already perceived as a serial condescending liar by the public.]

    Q: Which former prime minister was once referred to by one of his own as a ‘lying rodent’?

  6. [“If I could actually think of a reason for such a big fall I’d believe it, but I can’t.”]

    It’s the trend Gary… it’s the trend

  7. smithe,

    Oh feck, and the buzzards arrive.

    The buzzards only get what the jackals leave. They should have the decency to wait for the msm to get stuck in first, as they surely will.

    Treat them as a plaything, as they truly are.

  8. No 1452

    Cuppa you’ve been reading from the same song sheet for years, sorry if I don’t believe it. It’s the government’s job to put out its message. Rudd’s problem was that he micromanaged the media to the point that he bit him in the backside and people had a gutfull. Gillard’s problem is that she has no idea how to traverse the media landscape whatsoever, which is certainly not aided by media advisers that continue to give her the worst advice and the most vacuous speeches of any recent PM since McMahon.

    Blaming Rupert Murdoch, the ABC or whoever else is just a convenient deflection. It stops you from having to critically evaluate the terrible showing of Rudd/Gillard Labor in the last three years.

  9. rishane:
    If we have been reduced to masses of people switching their vote due to the ‘vibe’, then I think we really are screwed.

    However I suspect there is quite a lot of political fatigue involved. Normally after an election voters get a period of respite where they don’t have politics being shoved down their throats, but Abbott has played a very different game which has been aided and abetted by a willing media. Voters hate politics and politicians right now.

    It’s quite crafty really , because Abbott and Credlin know that if the Coalition win the next election that Labor will not be given the same largesse as Abbott has gotten. If the ALP go into opposition they won’t be getting their heads on TV every night. This has been a once in a lifetime opportunity for Abbott who would probably have been shunted by now if Labor had won a majority, even if it was by only one or two seats.

    The public are just sick and tired of politics. Abbott has basically been holding a gun to our collective heads saying if we don’t elect him then this current febrile state will go on and on and on and on interminably. So voters shove Labor under the bus so they can get some peace and quiet.

  10. @GP/1460

    Silly man – silly man – giving the media is away -is like giving free insults to the Australian people.

  11. Gary, Smithe

    I expect that you will never understand it. That is the problem. You and your mates who kicked Kevvie just do not get it. You want everyone in the Labor movement to be in your own image (which based on this blog) is a RW bovver boy. Problem is that they are not and your Machiavellian tricks have turned the voters right off

    I imagine that of the 7% lost to Labor, some will go Green but 3-4% will go to the KAP – Morally conservative Rural socialists. The REALLY scary thing is that the preferences are not falling Labor’s way. Now this MIGHT be a way forward. Get the preferences

  12. [It was also Campbell start with the Can Do Can Do attitude.]

    The Can Can?

    Show us a bit of leg then, Clive.

    Sorry, but I’ve gotta lift this funk somehow.

  13. Actually, I’m not sure that ‘sheltered workshop’ does justice to the media situation keeping the Liberals afloat. It’s like they’re on media life-support. Take that away, like pulling a raft out from under a pile of smelly garbage afloat on the sea, and down it would all go. Leaving only some froth and poisoned marine life in its wake.

  14. Thank God I’ve ended my Age subscription. I don’t have to read about this Neilsen shit anymore. or Grattan or Carney, or any of it.

  15. [I expect that you will never understand it. That is the problem. You and your mates who kicked Kevvie just do not get it. You want everyone in the Labor movement to be in your own image (which based on this blog) is a RW bovver boy. Problem is that they are not and your Machiavellian tricks have turned the voters right off]
    Anytime you want to show me where I’ve kicked Kevin be my guest. I’m not in the Labor movement and never have been. Unlike like you I’m no factional hack.

  16. [ daretotread
    Posted Sunday, April 1, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink
    Gary, Smithe

    I expect that you will never understand it…….]

    The only thing I’ll never understand is patronising defeatist pissants like you.

    And I’m SL not RW you Galactic idiot.

    If you’re going to have a go, at least get your facts (and factions) right.

  17. [Thank God I’ve ended my Age subscription. I don’t have to read about this Neilsen shit anymore. or Grattan or Carney, or any of it.]

    Just wait until the malign influence of major shareholder, Rinehart, becomes more overt at that once-august publication. And if you think that’s bad, the resources billionaires are likely planning an Australian version of Fox News – just in case the current imbalance is not conducive enough to a one-party media (and, they must be hoping, eventual one-party state).

  18. [It’s the government’s job to put out its message]

    Ho ho, that’s real easy to say from the perspective of a “party” that’s got media outlets in every capital city (and most of the regions) putting ITS message out. Bushfire Bill reported that NBNCo bought ads on a “talkback” station in Sydney, specifying live reads by the jock. The jock mocked and did the reads so disrespectfully that NBNCo were forced to pull the ads. As Bill said, you can’t even PAY these shills to put a different message out for thirty lousy seconds.

  19. cuppa,
    I missed that about the nbn adverts. Scum.

    Don’t panic people, let’s see if it is an outlier.

  20. It is all very baffling, politically speaking.

    Troublesome enough in real life land. If crystal is.

    Am sort of just recovering from the sheer experience of bidding on EBay.

    I have waited 21 days for a pair of Waterford Crystal Millenium flutes. In huge apprehension and finally delight and huge tears.

    I won them, for the merest amount. The seller must be a novice.

    None of that is the point.

    The same flutes were a present to me on my birthday. From a dear friend. Some three years ago.

    I had only used them once, placed them then on my lovely old dresser, before Doug picked them up, along with my Kosta Boda and shattered them on the tiled floor.

    I reiterate.

    How happy I am to be here.

  21. Wow! Facebook. Revelation in sharing. For good or bad. In this case, good.

    My nephew’s partner Simon, just messaged from London that they happen to be on a street where Judi Dench is doing film of some sort.

    Olympics, spose.

  22. I can definetly attest to the efficacy of Jaycars 2000mAh SB-1737 batteries as far as my solar lanterns are concerned.

    Massively superior to the original battery.

  23. Couple of points anyone who still believes Julia lied re carbon tax is ether a moron or a liar themselves; I can’t believe we are still doing it here – it is so transparently an Abbott fabrication – I have a goldfish who sees thru the lie forgets and works it out again each three seconds.

    People seem to forget the electricity price rises (particularly the state govt ones unrelated to the carbon price) are meant to change behaviour. So whatever the circumstance if you don’t like the price rise stop whinging and blaming the goverment and get up and turn the ac off.

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