Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition

Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).

Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.

The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. @1396. Townsville was once the reddest place in 0z, especially through to the 50s. Virtual socialist municipality under Tom Aikens. Moles’ biography, A Majority of One, should be compulsory reading for Laborites.

  2. [Must say the new Australia-orientated Life-On-Earth type show, Australia: The Time Traveller’s Guide, is getting to be an excellent and enchanting series.]

    + 1, BB. We’re hoping the DVD is blueray so we can send it to family & friends OS.

  3. Are there any blue-ray recorders around at a reasonable price?

    I take it blue-ray players will play “normal” CDs.

    I’m having a no-google night.

  4. Just goes to show how confident Abbott is that he won’t be picked up on anything by the media. Claiming both fatherhood & everything that’s fine about the Medicare safety net without the slightest concern that his duplicity during the 2004 campaign will be quoted against him. With the nerve to warn about people with high medical costs being dudded. I know about that because I was one of the ones he dudded. Was simply scared of him before that, despised him since.

  5. Truffie
    Your brother was talking about Japanese cultural attitudes to pubic hair. That you ” never saw one ” doesn’t surprise me at all.

  6. [@ghostwhovotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 43 (-4) L/NP 57 (+4) #auspol]
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-7) L/NP 47 (+3) #auspol]
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 45 (-1) Abbott 48 (+1) #auspol]
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred Treasurer: Swan 43 Hockey 45 #auspol]

  7. Frugality is the New Black.

    Further to what was osted here earlier today,


    [THRIFT is the new normal. Pummelled by insecurity over Europe’s near meltdown and falling house prices, Australians are paying down their mortgages at record rates.

    In just four years, we have gone from being a nation intent on using rocketing home values as an ATM equity cash machine to fuel our consumer spending, to one of hoarders.

    Between 1992 and 2006 housing loan growth expanded at a dizzying annual rate of 15.2 per cent as Australia’s home owners took advantage of lower interest rates to trade up, renovate, buy a fridge and borrow more. At the time, that new house in Paddington or Prahran looked so attractive, never mind its record price.

    But now, spooked by the global financial crisis and subsequent meltdown, we are rapidly paying down our mortgages, almost doubling our minimum monthly loan repayments since 2008.

    We’re cautious about taking on new debt – annual housing credit growth has halved to 8.3 per cent – and instead of buying that new flat-screen TV, we’re stashing the spare cash in the bank.

    In the last four years, households have taken $50 billion out of equity markets and deposited an extra $210 billion in the bank.

    But our newfound frugality is so pronounced, it’s causing headaches all round. Builders, retailers, property professionals, bankers and the hardware and whitegoods sectors are bearing the brunt of high-minded consumers determined to reform their profligate ways.

    ”This is the sort of activity you see in recessions,” says BIS Shrapnel veteran Robert Mellor about home owners’ lack of enthusiasm for forking-out on additions or alterations.]


    After talking down the economy for years now it looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for the Myers, Bavid Jones’ and Harvey Normans of the world. Now they really do have something to whinge about.

    And its nothing to do with the Carbon price,NBN or online retail or whatever. People have listened to their tale of woe and it has trned around and bitten them on the bum.

    Big time. Nice one boys.

    This on retail sales from the same Age article:

    [Those conditions are mirrored in retailing. ”The centre I’m in has got no customers to speak of,” said Harvey Norman founder Gerry Harvey in between bites of his sandwich while touring a Melbourne shopping centre this week.

    ”They’re all having a dreadful time. That’s pretty much symptomatic of what’s happening in most centres in Australia.”

    Sales were at levels usually associated with 10 to 11 per cent unemployment rates.

    ”You have this very unusual circumstance of having 5 per cent-plus unemployment and very weak retail sales,” he said.

    The pain is being felt across the board, as large retailers struggling with sluggish consumer sentiment are accused by analysts of being too slow to react to the threat of online shopping eating into their revenue and margins.

    A week ago, retailer David Jones announced a 20 per cent dive in profit in first-half results, just days after rival Myer reported a similar result.]

    No sympathy here Gerry, you tosser.

  8. Sounds like an outsider poll to me with Nielsen.

    Too big of non-improvement – compared with other polls.

    And surely the entire AU is not that stupid.

  9. [@ghostwhovotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-7) L/NP 47 (+3) #auspol]

    Dummy spit.

    The scared little turnips are blaming the Government becuse they’ve panicked themselves.


    Its some sort of national nervous breakdown.

  10. And surely the entire AU is not that stupid.

    “Judge not, that ye be not judged.”

    Well, Matthew didn’t have much of an audience.

  11. smithe:
    I think Abbott truly believes that all of his talking down of the economy, of the constant message that we are all doing it so tough, will just fade away if he gets to win govt. All of a sudden Australia will be transported back in time to 2005/06 and we will all feel confident and shiny and happy again. Only then will we go back out and spend money with Gerry Harvey and Myer. While Labor is in govt we won’t spend. In Abbott’s head he will be the saviour of the economy.

  12. Two year olds act like this. Not adults.

    Next they’ll threaten to hold their breaths until they die.

    Then you’ll be sorry. Yes you will.

  13. @smithe/1423

    -7 loss from the ALP yet only +3 to LNP, who lost what, and where did it go.


    “Treat everyone on the Road as idiots” – My Dad.

  14. [Its some sort of national nervous breakdown.]
    I must admit it has us scratching our heads here as well. Although I am wedded to Labor my OH is more likely to be critical and he has no idea where this comes from.

    Of course after the Qld election all we have heard is that Labor is doooooooooooooooooooooomed and that Julia Gillard may as well pack up and leave the Lodge now because she is toast. (Note that she is the dry, crusty old type of toast, not the buttered, honey or peanut butter covered toast – the media really want us to get that).

  15. Nielsen never fails to disappoint. Labor won the 2007 election with 57 2PP, so I guess its the Coalition’s turn now 😉

  16. The whole country needs a good dose of phenergan.


    And maybe some quiet respite care in a nice darkened room, away from bright lights, raving wingnuts and commotion for while.

    Shanahan is already having his little rest.

    The rest of the Country should join him, IMHO.

  17. [There is an election next Saturday? Why wasn’t I told?]

    Didn’t you hear? The GG dissolved parliament because Alan Jones asked for it. 😛

  18. The only thing that makes sense for the drop in Labor’s primary vote is that people didn’t like missing out on the NBN in the first 3 year rollout plan.

  19. We’ve been in Wingnut detention for too long.

    Just like a bunch of uninvited boat arrivals, we’ve been locked-up behind the razor wire of our own supposed reality with no contact with the wider reality of the outside world an fed a constant stream of wingnut propaganda lies and bullshit. For years.

    And just as with the detainees in the camps, the inevitable has happened.

    We’ve gone stir crazy. We’ve turned to self-harm and started slashing away at our own bodies.

    It’s fascinating to watch.

    The Government wanted to know what the effect of increasing media concentration would be, thus the convergance review. They cluld have saved their money and waited.

    We sure know now.

    The entire country losing it’s marbles.

  20. [I don’t understand people.]

    You don’t have to, Fiz. At least not to work out why the government is ‘unpopular’. In all the mainstream media there is not one ‘voice’ that’s friendly to Labor. There is not one pro-Labor mainstream media outlet. There are certainly no outlets that are anti-Coalition.

    On the other hand, there are many many pro-Coalition ‘voices’. There are many pro-Coalition media outlets. There are many outlets that are anti-Labor.

    You could go to any country in the free world and you won’t find a more one-sided media than Australia’s. Simply because it’s literally not possible for any country’s media to BE more unbalanced.

    Only in such a surreal media landscape could a moron like Abbott lead a party that’s ahead in the polls. Only in this surreal landscape could a rabble with no policies (apart from discredited stinkers), no economic idea and only slogans to offer, be “competitive”.

  21. As of this AM, William is only 2 hours behind the East.

    The BBC is only ten hours behind now and nine when their summer time kicks in. Good for sport buffs.

  22. Devastating result for Labor. LOL – the primary vote is in free fall.

    Nice to know that Cuppa thinks media balance is superior in North Korea than Australia.

  23. Grey One,

    You’re right. My prob is that the Beeb, as relayed on NewsRadio, swaps between GMT and the affected UK time.


    I suggest the following have contributed:
    1. The Qld walloping has given the rest of the country “license to kick” so they will
    2. They have realised that Rudd is NOT coming back
    3 Economic gloom and fear
    4. House values and super are falling and they feel poorer
    5. Abbott a little less negative

  25. No 1443

    It’s not puzzling at all. Gillard is so hapless she started using “moving forward” again on Meet the Press. Then she went on about “who do you trust” when she’s already perceived as a serial condescending liar by the public.

    The only shred of positive news for the government is that people are happy to rob the miners in order to cut company tax. Whoopdie doo.

  26. I think I’ll dig out and re-read my old copy of Arthur Koestler’s Darkness at Noon, seems apt somehow.

    A country at the peak of it’s triumph, the envy of the world on just about any metric you could mention and it just suddenly curls up into a little ball and tanties itself into catatonia.

    Yep. Sounds about right.

  27. Ahh @Generic Person – always ready to piss labor off.

    Abbott Approval is down btw.

    Seems also Carbon Pricing is the culpret.

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