Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Peg
    so leave bemused out of it.

    It was a bit difficult to discuss, considering bemused raised the issues and then you agreed.

    However, let’s take bemused out of the equation.
    Oh wait,

    you say:
    [Being loyal to KR, he will push back against the Gillard supporters who trash KR, as is his right.]
    Well obviously you are referring to bemused – sorry, your call that bemused is mentioned – and you’re saying the only reason he trashes Gillard supporters is because they trash KR. And then you reckon that’s OK? Alright your actual works: “as is his right”

    Sorry, you’re just in the same paddock as bemused. That you think it is right to trash the leader.

    hey, I never liked Rudd. I didn’t come on here and trash him. To tell you the truth I was aghast at his appointment. I wasn’t overly enamoured with Mark Latham either. However, I didn’t go on a public forum and trash either of them at the time. I supported them.

    And, quite frankly, I don’t think you can honestly go and campaign for a leader you don’t believe in – and still live with yourself.

  2. Sossman , i see your $162 bill with a $159.41 bill , with 2 A/c’s , dish washer , fans , 400watt x 2 lights in shed etc etc.

  3. [Leroy
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink
    In South Australia

    Uploaded by ten on Mar 30, 2012
    A dog of a day for gaffe prone Liberal MP Michael Pengilly, who called police rather than answer Ten News questions over his Parliamentary insult. His leader Isobel Redmond declaring she now has very little confidence in him, after the latest in a string of comments directed at women.]

    Too funny Leroy, just too funny.

    You’ve gotta wonder whether this Pengilly chap is the full two-bob. First there’s this fixation with dog insults (especially regarding women); Then this too-precious by half- reliance on the Coppers and poor Jamie Briggs to whisk him away from those awful Meeja types hanging about outside, intent on an interview.

    The few oldesters interviewed near his office did say they thought he’s a “good MP” whatever that means, but they look like the sort who probably think that Howie is still PM.

    His own leader, Redmond, clearly doesn’t think much of his skill set, that’s for sure.

    Every Dog may have his day, but I’d say poor Pengles has definitely had his. Come pre-selection time next year, my bet is that he’ll be let out of the House to run free and lick his neuticles* to his heart’s content.

    * A prosthetic implant for de-sexed pets, I’m informed.

  4. [3713 Doyley
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink
    zoomster @3699,

    When Abbott was the National Press Club recently he also identified savings from the computers in schools rollout.

    Even at that time the scheme had finished on time and within budget but he was not questioned so we can add the non existent savings from that to the BER.]


    He’s gonna take the kids’ comuters back and sell the second-hand on ebay and demolish all the BER buildings and sell the spoil. Oughta be worth at least something as backfill.

  5. kezza2 @3637

    I will never talk down our PM, just as I never talked down Kevin Rudd while he was PM – but you do your utmost to trash JG – and I can’t believe you’d convince anyone to vote Labor when your heart isn’t in it.

    I have commented on the performance of both KR & JG at times when something they did merited comment. It has not all been one sided and has included praise and concern about both.

    The event which has caused enormous damage to both has also attracted my attention and I am unforgiving of those behind it.

    zoomster @ 3638


    What a surprise! Most of the big things being legislated by the Gillard Govt were initiated under Rudd.

    That’s because Gillard – like Rudd – has been legislating Australian Labor party policy.

    It’s a bit concerning when a member of said party doesn’t recognise that.

    We appear to be in complete agreement. I don’t know what your point was.

    zoomster @ 3639

    In that case, you would be glad to do so with me; bemused has frequently said on this site that he admires the work I do within the party.

    And I will continue to do so. I think you do great work in so many respects.

    Pegasus @ 3640

    My perception of bemused is that he engages constructively with Labor’s shortcomings and cares deeply about the party he supports.

    Yes, I take my cue from a former leader who once said: “The Labor Party is not a mutual admiration society.” It is typical of a party of ideas.

    There has been much public discussion of the need for reform within the ALP and I support such reform. In particular, the relationship between the ALP and unions was defined in the 19th Century and has not changed in any fundamental way. I believe that relationship needs to be re-though for the 21st Century and beyond.

    kezza2 @ 3643

    Have you had an intelligence bypass? Not to mention an ironic one as well!

    And what a surprise Gillard has had to put to bed those Rudd (& Gillard) govt initiatives because Rudd couldn’t do it.

    No, but it seems you have.
    Rudd was stymied by a hostile Senate.
    Julia Gillard has a more favourable Senate and so is able to proceed with that agenda. When that is all put to bed I expect she will move on to new issues to address. i.e. new initiatives, not hangovers from the Rudd Govt.

  6. kezza2 @ 3668

    If you’re saying you support bemused’s opinion that Gillard isn’t Labor’s legitimate leader, then so be it. I can not agree.

    Either point out where I have said that or apologise.

    Put up or shut up! 😡

  7. kezza2 @ 3680

    bemused doesn’t discuss policy, his main game is to trash JG.
    I don’t agree with that – hence my leadership question to you.

    I would appreciate it if you would stop lying about me. Better still, an apology would be in order.

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