Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition

Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).

Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.

The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [How the hell can the Vic government be going UP when it’s doing such a bloody terrible job?]

    Especially with the Mayor in Melbourne, its Gary’s gig.

  2. At the end of the day, not much change really.

    Labor still needs to get the missing 8% or so of voters back who call themselves “Labor voters” but sleep with the enemy.

    I don’t see them coming back yet, but once we pass the July 1 period, and as we head into the end to the year, there might be some pick up.

    Shame about the doom-sayers here – nominally Labor supporters.

    In reality, if Labor can’t get across the line with JG then there is nobody else who can do it.

    I much prefer to see Labor on its feet say in August/September 2013 with JG as PM, rather than a Smith/Shorten/Rudd or anybody else.

    With JG a Labor victory can be had. With anyone else, we might as pack up the tent now and batten down for a very miserable time with Abbott.

  3. When direct action is dumped by Abbott health and education will be the big winners. Billions of dollars at the next election into tangible assests not a clear gas where no matter how many billions team lime labor spend it wont change the weather by one drop of rain. Plus a sprinkle of vote buying with the bogans that labor so now dispise and Labor will be gone, reduced to a tofu roast for two (bob brown and shy)

  4. Rox

    1. Change of leader. Daniel Andrews wasn’t a very high profile figure before the election (a sign that he was a more than competent Health Minister!).

    2. Lack of profile. When you’re no longer the government, you’re not in the news. Also, of course, you can’t hang your hat on ‘achievements.’

    3. Connected with 2 – new government has a pulpit to trash past government from. All of a suddent they’re the ones with access to the media, and thus the ability to point fingers and say “Labor bad.”

  5. [When direct action is dumped by Abbott health and education will be the big winners. ]

    So rummie you reckon Tony’s excellent direct action is just a sham?

  6. [AdamBandt Really? What PM wears & what Tony Abbott thinks about it = news? Wldn’t happen if the PM was a bloke. Let’s get out of the dark ages, pls.
    6 minutes ago]

  7. rummel

    I repeat: if you are relying on your leader to break his promise on Direct Action, how can you believe he will deliver on anything else?

    Or, indeed, that he has any intention to.

    So it’s clear: the Liberals support appears to come from two different groups —

    1. Those who don’t believe Abbott will be the leader come the election and pin their hopes on Turnbull;

    2. Those who don’t believe a word Abbott is saying now but have put their trust in him delivering on a raft of items he’s never mentioned or shown any commitment to.

    Neither group seems to be terribly in touch with reality.

  8. The direct action plan won’t be dumped it will be an effective way to porkbarrel while cutting emissions at the same time… much better than a big tax shuffling money around

  9. [d
    It won’t last. I failed mental arithmatic in grade 3. It set me up for life.]

    But that would mean you can’t add up and no-one would know whether you were overchargi…. oh, I get it.

  10. Oh dear… now GeeWizz and rummel are in disagreement.

    BTW, further to my last post: it also shows that even Liberal voters wouldn’t vote for Abbott if they actually believed what he was saying.

  11. Note that right now a longish item on 7.30 about how home insurance is skyrocketing due to bad weather. Not just in flood areas. Everyone’s paying their share.

    Climate Change Is Bunk!

  12. Ruawake

    [So rummie you reckon Tony’s excellent direct action is just a sham?]

    Have since it was announced. It will be dumped quicker then the time taken counting the positive votes for Kevin rudd in a caucus vote.

  13. [The direct action plan won’t be dumped it will be an effective way to porkbarrel while cutting emissions at the same time…]

    At a cost to the taxpayers of $62 a tonne, great Idea wizzy.

  14. William i’m reading that the results will be close.

    Should have put money down on Libs winning 75+ seats it was paying out something ridiculous like $32 from memory

  15. Joe6Pack

    Seriously, did you have any problems taking a photo?

    And, while I have the knife and fork at the ready.
    I’ll be like Havisham – waiting for the end of 2013 with the condiments.

    Cos that was the bet, as far as I was concerned, Labor federally.

  16. rummel
    [It will be dumped quicker then the time taken counting the positive votes for Kevin rudd in a caucus vote.]
    On that I am in complete agreement !

  17. My home and contents insurance has increased by $20 per month in the past year. Who cares about a CT. Maybe we all should given the costs we are already paying.

  18. “It will be dumped quicker then the time taken counting the positive votes for Kevin rudd in a caucus vote”.

    But, that would make Abbott and the Libs liars.

  19. Greensborough Growler

    [But, that would make Abbott and the Libs liars.]
    Yes and we all know that would make his government illegitimate and have no mandate. 😉

  20. [Oh dear… now GeeWizz and rummel are in disagreement.]

    A first for a long time. If the libs keep the expensive crock of shite that is direct action they are dead set mad. Why spend half the money digging the ground and pork barrel with the other half when you can drive a full 100% billion dollar wedge into the heart of labor at the next election.

    Billions for a clear gas……
    Billions for hospitals
    Billions for health
    Billions to raise the minimum wage.
    Raise the bloody dole
    Help the pensioners
    Make the bogans feel the centre of the univers again

  21. Abbot’s “Direct Action” policy – whatever that means, has as much credibility as he claiming to be “honest”. Serial lying is in the genes of conservative politicians.

    Was it Tony Delroy, months ago, on his Night Life program basically poo-pooed this idea as not to be “taken seriously by anyone”? Nobody on his program contradicted him.

    How quickly the conservatives forget the “lying rodent” epithet put on Howard by one of his own!

    The conservatives were just too thick to get the irony of the name “Honest John” for Howard.

    The baying jackals regarding the PM, but not for a self-confessed and serial public liar in Abbott is amazing.

    Strange times we live in.

  22. rummel
    [Billions for a clear gas……]
    Pray tell what the feck the gas being “clearless” has to do with it. Hydrogen cyanide gas is also clear.

  23. [rummel
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink
    When direct action is dumped by Abbott health and education will be the big winners. ]

    Completely agree. If I was advising the Coalition (which I am not by the way) I would suggest a large spend on practical things in the education sphere (to highlight the difference between useful spending and wasteful spending…so that people remember the “school halls” thoughts they had last year, without having to actually mention it.

  24. GG

    Six days before the next election.

    “there will be no carbon tax in the government I lead spending billions on a clear gas. There will be no direct action in the government I lead. There will be a billion dollars extra for health in the government I lead. There will be a billion dollars extra for education in the Government I lead. There will be………….. .

  25. At 5.30 am this morning the local radio people on a fm. station were saying how great it was that Costello was appointed by Can do, and how he was a great treasurer and he fixed the black hole left by Keating .
    Station as a cross media alliance with southern cross ten.

    G Reinhardt.
    Really if this keeps up labor may as well just tell them all to PO and see what happens.
    i’m not a rusted on as most here know but when this stuff is getting sprouted on coastal regional channels , I get pissed off .
    I know its bs but for 95% people cruising into work at that time or allready working that is probably the only political info they will hear all day, and over time it will sink in.
    They all love cando here at he moment and he really does a very clear mandate to do whatever he wants , but blatant crap like this is what the feds have to put up with.
    its. not just the hadleys /joneses in the big cities.

  26. I see the denialist do nothings are lining up. True to form. Still, a bit of a surprise that they are prepared to out themselves…

  27. rummel

    There is absolutely no evidence that Abbott would do any of those things. None. Not even a hint.

    It isn’t because he’s playing his cards close to his chest, or being coy, or playing some deep electoral game – it’s because he doesn’t have a scintilla of interest in doing anything about any of them.

    He ripped money out of health and hospitals.

    He’s opposed any rises suggested to the minimum wage (and wholeheartedly supported WorkChoices).

    As for raising the dole or pensions…never ever, in his entire political life, has he made any suggestion he might even think of doing either.

    As I said, the only way anyone can justify voting for the Liberals is if they’re delusional.

  28. Rummel,

    The Libs with a small increase in the company tax for the richest companies will mean that you can get cheap solar hotwater and solar power for your house.

    Everyone loves some pork come election time. There are cost savings to be made by scrapping the huge climate change department setup for Gillard so there is your money for hospitals.

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