Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).
Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.
The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).
ModLib
a little thing called the Constitution gets in the way of the kind of ‘useful’ spending on education you suggest (having just come back from spending the day teaching in a lovely modern school, courtesy of the Federal government, I’d disagree the BER was a waste).
The Federal government can only fund specialist school buildings and provide direct funds to schools. It cannot direct how the money it provides schools be spent. It cannot provide money to directly employ anything other than ‘specialist’ teachers. It is extremely limited in the way it can use funding to support schools.
That’s because education is a state responsibility.
[Billions for hospitals
Billions for health]
Tone as health minister ripped over $1 billion out of the health system sending it into crisis.
Tone as health minister spoke directly against the giardia cervical cancer vaccine on the grounds it would lead young girls to promiscuity.
[Billions to raise the minimum wage.]
Tone spoke in glowing terms of Work Choices.
“Sack those workers you have always wanted to sack but couldn’t, because now we have given you the power”. Sack the old the infirm those approaching their long serive anniversary date, sack them all, god will know his own.
And when the workers complained verily about the beast called Work Choices, how it took away their earnings, their dignity, their rights and their respect.
Tone doth say unto them
A bad boss is better than no boss.
[Raise the bloody dole, Help the pensioners]
In all his years in the Howie government Tone never once spoke in support of pensioners and the Paxtons.
The poor will always be with us, doth sayeth the Tone.
[Make the bogans feel the centre of the univers again]
Now you are singing, the tax on alcopops will be abolished, pleasing the bogans and increasing the birth rate.
The restrictions on tobacco will go, people will be able to smoke winnie blues in the car with the kids again.
As Tone says, his parents smoked in the car when he was a kid and it never did him any harm.
Did it? eh eh eh.
[ruawake
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
rummel
There is no money for the Libs to spend.]
We Libs make money so that you ALP guys can waste it when you get in, thats how it works in Australia…
[kezza2
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink
Joe6Pack
Seriously, did you have any problems taking a photo?
And, while I have the knife and fork at the ready.
I’ll be like Havisham – waiting for the end of 2013 with the condiments.
Cos that was the bet, as far as I was concerned, Labor federally.]
I am sure your comments were ” if you ever vote labor I will eat my pajamas”
And Federally at the moment I have said I will never vote for the libs. while wanker abbot is the leader.
Castle people should be able to live their lives… within the boundary of the law… without the government wiping their bums and telling them what they can and can’t do.
Government is there for when we need them… they are our servants not the other way round.
Labor will learn this shortly
[rummel
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink
Oh dear… now GeeWizz and rummel are in disagreement.
A first for a long time. If the libs keep the expensive crock of shite that is direct action they are dead set mad.]
You guys are a laugh a minute.
Have you forgotten why the Libs went with DAP?
Huh?
Let me put you back on track.
It’s precisely because it is so easy to UNDO.
Apparently the DAP will solve all problems
the socially disadvantaged with their hands out
the schools with their hands out
the doctors with their hands out
the dentists with their hands out
the miners with their hands out
the never-ending Liberal/NP whingers problems
the Howard battlers (Menzies’ forgotten families) with their hands out
the small businesses with their hands out
the big businesses with their hands out.
the unemployed with their hands out
when will it ever end?
Good luck with the selling – selling out the country!
Oh, but wait, here’s a way to get AUSTERITY in favour
Let’s have another WAR.
I’ll bet me boots on that.
@Mod Lib showing true colors.
Labor spend it due to Lib not spend it.
The last 12 + years of lack of investment in Telecommunications is one of those.
[local radio people on a fm. station were saying how great it was that Costello was appointed by Can do, ]
Costello has no audit experience, why was he appointed?
Gotta love the delusionals here claiming Abbott will boost spending on health and education. Decades of real world experience have shown that tories instinct and nature is to slash spending in both.
Mod lib
[We libs don’t use that term Rummel!]
My mistake mod lib. I get used to that term listening to team labor talk about there old base like that.
@GeeWizz/55
Thats most wrong comment you made yet.
Labor tells people what to do – but not Coalition?
LOL
Mod Lib
It is funny to read some Libs spending the proceeds of the Carbon Tax while at the same time arguing it should not be implemented. Bit like Robb spending the MRRT funds.
j6P
okay, we’re a draw!
Kids are out tonight, but I promise I’ll start tucking into the PJs when a pic is ripe for the taking.
Hey. you didn’t answer my query. Did you have any problems taking a photo of your vote?
Only asking, because I wasn’t sure if it was legal or not – and didn’t want you to get into trouble!
[“We Libs make money so that you ALP guys can waste it when you get in, thats how it works in Australia…”]
YEP. The thing that makes me the most angry about the Greens isn’t their kook policies it’s that they ATTACK hard working Australians who pay taxes… they hate these people with a passion…. THEN they want their money to do their kook policies.
The Greens hate high paid Australians, but they sure love our money! Don’t bite the hand that feeds ya fella’s or you might just find we aren’t around anymore to fill up your doggy bowl with doggy treats
Aww come on ML, and I thought your were an intelligent conservative hack!
I suppose you go along with the view that when the economy is doing well (under the conservatives) that is due to “good management” but under the progressives “good luck”!
I would not want to think of you as some kind of GW as despite being misguided, I never took you as being thick.
Tell me your comment was a joke!
To all those saying Abbott took x out of y, I almost agree. However it’s a magical thing self interest and spending billions within Labor core areas when labor can’t spend a cent because they have smoked it all on a clear gas will be priceless. Oh and very good for education, health, ect.
Its a bit like Lib broadband. Spend $6 billion subsidising the private sector and end up with -$6 billion. Or spend $36 billion and make a profit.
Geewiz
[YEP. The thing that makes me the most angry about the Greens isn’t their kook policies it’s that they ATTACK hard working Australians who pay taxes… they hate these people with a passion…. THEN they want their money to do their kook policies.]
I see we are back to agreeing again 🙂
ruawake…. projected profit… projected profit.
NBN could be the next One.Tel or Dingo Blue
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
Reachtel have done a survey that confirms the swing against O’Farrell.
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/barry-ofarrell-one-year-on-in-new-south-wales%5D
GG:
Am I reading the correct results?
That poll you linked to has the same primary votes as the actual election doesn’t it?
I don’t know Barry, but I suspect he wouldn’t mind an identical 2011 result next time he goes to the polls…
rummel
5% reduction is Liberal Party policy, did you miss it?
Rummie
The thing is that the Libs are putting up taxpayers funds, Labor are putting up bond investors funds. You realise the difference?
Boerwar
[Mate, mate, the rural socialist wing is probably sparking up the cattle prods as we speak]
Yes they most likely are.
I thought the vote for the Greens was about 15% last time around federally – on top of that the Labor vote was in the 30s but most voted for the progressive side – just.
To say that the Greens “hate ……..hard working Australians” and spend “our” money” is just another Young Liberal rant. Or better, the rant of the Young Liberal mentality.
I feel sorry for the thoughtful conservative hacks here who carry have to carry the moronic, hate-filled, contributions of the few.
Bit like having to put up with Wilson Tuckey I suppose and writing him off as some kind of mad uncle – as Abbott did I think.
[people should be able to live their lives… within the boundary of the law… without the government wiping their bums and telling them what they can and can’t do.]
In the 70’s a labor government brought in a law making rape in marriage a crime, the Tones of that era spoke vehemently against that law, saying it would lead to a break down of family and civilisation as we know it.
So I can understand where you are coming from GW when you talk about government interfering in peoples lives.
[Tell me your comment was a joke!]
Perhaps a little norty, I admit!
It is a fact that the Liberal party has been better at balancing the budget/generating surplusses than the ALP over the last 40 years of Federal governments.
(and before anyone asks me for the millionth time, that is how far back the Australian Parliamentary Library figures go, but if you have access to insider info, please do your own calculations and let us all know).
Ruewake
[rummel
5% reduction is Liberal Party policy, did you miss it?]
So was not having a carbon tax a labor policy. We all know how long that lasted.
I see all three of our resident Tories are here tonight furiously working away at that Magic Pudding.
[“Labor tells people what to do – but not Coalition?”]
Labor tells people more what to do in their lives than the Coalition… though most of it is a cover for upping taxes.
Ciggies Tax, Alcopop Tax(kids getting mum and dad to buy hard spirits now), Carbon Tax for the rich, pensioners forced to get $300 set-top boxes rather than being able to buy themselves a new digital TV(Sams warehouse selling them for $78 bucks now), Luxury Car Tax, etc etc.
Labor want to be in every facet of your life telling you what you can and can’t do, people are getting sick of it.
Joe6Pack
[At 5.30 am this morning the local radio people on a fm. station were saying how great it was that Costello was appointed by Can do, and how he was a great treasurer and he fixed the black hole left by Keating .]
You know, I feel sorry for you.
You decided to vote Labor because of Abbott’s obvious lie about his truck licence (which told you if he could lie about that then he could lie about anything!).
But I bet you haven’t been able to make headway with your truckie mates/friends/families or your own, for that matter.
And now, listening to the pro-Coalition saturation coverage that is our msm, you are beginning to realise what Labor is up against.
To be Labor is to be strong and to advocate strongly for those who don’t have a voice.
Good luck with that, in your industry, J6P.
[The thing is that the Libs are putting up taxpayers funds, Labor are putting up bond investors funds. You realise the difference?]
I do….. Just because the money spend on a clear gas by labor is not comming out of the government coffers it is still going to come out of the same house hold wallet. The company’s are not going to out of the goodness of there heart not going to pass the cost incurred. Best of all in regards to the tax gillard will get the blaim and the greens will take the high ground again. Labor can not win on the tax.
[pensioners forced to get $300 set-top boxes rather than being able to buy themselves a new digital TV]
They were forced to? I can’t recall anything that stopped anyone from purchasing whatever they wanted to using their own money. Bit of overreach there.
rummie
I was commenting on the NBN.
It is really insightful to see 3 Liberal position put tonight, all contradictory. Is this the Abbott dilemma?
It is very funny seeing the Libtards trying to guess what Liberal policy is. A hoot.
These are good times to be a liberal, you can’t blame us for being exuberant can you?
[You know, I feel sorry for you.
You decided to vote Labor because of Abbott’s obvious lie about his truck licence (which told you if he could lie about that then he could lie about anything!).]
I said i won,t vote for the libs while Abbott is the leader. A little diference
rummel 81
Rummel, are you OK ? You seem to have come down with a serious case of Terrorgraph bloggerati spellingitis. “comming, house hold , blaim , can not”. Most unRummelish.
Of course Abbott’s Direct Action is a load of nonsense and most punters believe it’ll disappear if he wins next election and they don’t care. However “liar liar” doesn’t get a guernsey when it’s a promise to do something that you then don’t do – there’s a score of those after every election. The backflips that hurt and bring on the liar/untrustworthy stigma are promises that you won’t do something controversial, or saying nothing about a major policy, which you then go ahead and do, eg Work Choices, Carbon Tax, Qld Asset Sales.
I hear CanDo is hiring some former Enron dudes to help him run the show. They weren’t big on process as I recall, either. But they sure got stuff done.
And Cossie’s going to need someone to help swing that hammock for him, too. What about Bernie Madoff? I’m sure the Yanks would love to see him disapear somewhere where his talents will be put to good use.
[od Lib
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink
These are good times to be a liberal, you can’t blame us for being exuberant can you?]
No, and no one should unless they want a commie 1 state party
Mod Lib
[These are good times to be a liberal, you can’t blame us for being exuberant can you?]
Exuberant , yes but stupid no. 🙂
[It is a fact that the Liberal party has been better at balancing the budget/generating surplusses than the ALP over the last 40 years of Federal governments.]
Mod Lib – you may not want to hear it but Whitlam ran the first ever surplus budget. You may also not want to hear that Peter Reith admitted this morning on SkyAgenda that Australia was really in recession in 2006-07. Now let me think who was running the economy then! Ah yes, the mob that economists say were running structural deficits from 2003. Costello was a great spinner of deceit about the economy and his prowess.
[Labor want to be in every facet of your life telling you what you can and can’t do, people are getting sick of it.]
see #75, I know what you mean.
@GeeWizz/79
Why should Hospitals be filled up with drunks and Smokies?
My Dad drinks alot since his accident – I’ve seen him in pissed off mode.
Such a stupid comment to make about those so called “taxes”.
Coalition weren’t around to make a better solution -they just whinged and complain.
J6P
[I said i won,t vote for the libs while Abbott is the leader. A little diference]
Oh, I see, you haven’t told your family/friends about your Labor vote.
Fair enough.
ML
Won’t try to refute your comments re the frequency of conservative versus progressive deficit spending, but without reference to the time frame of the budgetary considerations, this type of “evidence” in one dimensional.
If the Great Depression taught as anything in economics, the contraction of aggregate demand is not a good outcome of “balancing the books”.
I suspect countries like Greece, Spain and Ireland are learning this lesson all over again.
To use a crude analogy, it is one thing to make a ditch digger live within his means by either paying less or making him work more/longer, but it is another to take the shovel away from him altogether so he can even dig the ditch – lest it be with his hands.
So, it is with economies in simplistic way.
I thought a doco on FC a week or too ago, made this point eloquently as far as Ireland is currently concerned.
Even the great Walmart – about a year ago was it? – in the US conceded that $5 an hour as a basic hourly rate in the US was the road to ruin in that economy.
[“They were forced to? I can’t recall anything that stopped anyone from purchasing whatever they wanted to using their own money. Bit of overreach there.”]
But why did they have to get a set-top box.
As I said there are Digital TV’s selling for $78 at Sams Warehouse with 2 Year Warranty’s.
Hooking a set-top box to your Nanna’s 1986 TV set with the dial tuner at $350 bucks a pop is a huge waste of taxpayer money and makes the entire thing complicated for ol’ Nanna Betsy. A Digital TV set with one remote control should have been standard and would have saved time setting up and demostrating it’s use.
I bought a Digital TV for my folks after they had issues dealing with their TV-Set top Box-Combo, never had an issue since.
[ Government is there for when we need them… they are our servants not the other way round.
Labor will learn this shortly ]
Bloody slow learners though GW, eh. In and out of government for the past 110 years and they haven’t learnt yet! 😉
[But why did they have to get a set-top box.]
They didn’t. They accessed a Govt program to give them access to digital TV. The same program that the Howard Govt endorsed.
[85
Mod Lib
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink
These are good times to be a liberal, you can’t blame us for being exuberant can you?]
I’m really enjoying this stint in opersistion.