Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.

Other poll news:

• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.

• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.

Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:

• The recommendations made in the post-election review conducted by Steve Bracks, John Faulkner and Bob Carr were mostly scotched, wih largely cosmetic exceptions. Most importantly, a plan to have a component of the National Conference be directly elected by the rank-and-filed has been referred to an implementation committee which the Left complains is unlikely to seriously progress it. Most of the 400 conference delegates are at present chosen by the state branches, which are responsible to state conferences which consist of 50 per cent union and 50 per cent constituency party representatives. NSW general secretary and Right faction figure Sam Dastyari had proposed the direct election of an extra 150 delegates – one from each of the 150 federal electorates – but the Left favoured a model in which half would be directly elected by party members and the other half directly appointed by trade unions (a presentation of the Right’s proposals is available from The Age). The resulting strengthening of the unions’ arm was widely criticised, although the Right was accused of using this as a pretext to scotch reforms which, in the view of a Right source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald, “would have diminished the faction’s influence by diluting the factional balance among delegates”. Alternatively, VexNews presumably speaks for the Right in complaining that the postal voting proposed for election of Conference delegates would confer an advantage on the Left, while Graham Richardson in The Australian expresses alarm at the near-success of Left policy measures that would have “finished” Julia Gillard, and cautions against “the practical effects of electing conference delegates directly by the rank and file”.

• Also rejected were proposals to give the elected national president and vice-presidents voting rights on the 20-member national executive; for state and territory presidents and vice-presidents to be elected by the rank-and-file; for the party’s national appeals tribunal to be given greater independence of the national executive; and for national executive and state administrative committee interventions into preselections to occur “only as a last resort”. It will be left to state branches to decide whether to implement a proposal to have 20 per cent of the preselection vote in some seats to be determined by primaries open to those willing to register as Labor supporters. A Left’s-eye-view of the fate of the Bracks-Faulkner-Carr recommendations has been obtained by Andrew Crook of Crikey.

A solitary preselection nugget:

• The Weekend Courier Community newspaper reports the Liberals have again endorsed Rockingham real estate agent Donna Gordin as their candidate for the southern Perth seat of Brand, held for Labor by Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3 per cent.

Last but not least, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its report on the funding of political parties and election campaigns, the conduct of which was part of the minority government agreements reached between Labor, the Greens and the independents after the 2010 election. It reiterates a number of measures which featured both in the government’s reform attempts in the previous term, which were thwarted in the Senate by the Coalition and Steve Fielding, and in the terms of the minority government agreement:

• The threshold for public disclosure of donations to political parties and third parties to be cut from $11,900 and $1000, reversing a radical change made in 2006 by the Howard government, with different state branches of the same party to be treated as the same entity to prevent multiple undisclosed donations;

• Disclosures of donations to be reported six-monthly rather than yearly, with the new report further suggesting donations over $100,000 be disclosed within two weeks;

• Public funding of parties and candidates who poll over 4 per cent of the vote to be limited to reimbursement of proved spending;

• Foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50 to be banned, and harsher penalties imposed for various offences.

The new report also recommends that:

• Money from fund-raising events be treated as donations and disclosed accordingly;

• Administrative penalties rather than rarely pursued criminal prosecutions apply for “straightforward” offences;

• Options be explored to cap spending by third parties for a period before an election;

• Registered political parties receive public funding to cope with the administrative burden of the changes (which I would be seizing on right now were I a tabloid hack).

What the report doesn’t recommend is donation and expenditure caps such as those which have been introduced at state level in New South Wales and Queensland, or the Greens-backed proposal for a ban on donations from tobacco companies (which the Greens successfully lobbied for in NSW). The terms of reference also did not require consideration of the “truth-in-advertising” requirement provided for by the minority government agreement. A dissenting report from the Coalition members again disapproved of higher disclosure thresholds on the unconvincing grounds that it would “significantly impact the ability of individuals to give donations to political parties without the potential for intimidation and harassment”. It also called for a dedicated electoral fraud squad in the Australian Electoral Commission, to deal with an issue the AEC itself does not recognise as a serious problem.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,657 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 34
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  1. I read Taylor’s article on the internal machinations of Abbott’s office. Nothing really surprising. My take out was that whilever the Libs TPP and PV is sky high Abbott is safe. And also, don’t underestimate the man. Interesting quotye from his daughter, though. Also, there seems to be general goodwill in the party room for Abbott to succeed, according to Taylor. So, I am not sure that the alleged divisions are that prominent – yet. The problem I have always seen for the Libs and Abbott’s tactics, and this is adverted to by Taylor, is the long term damage Abbott’s popularism is doing to the Liberal brand. But then again, Howard got away with it for a long time.

  2. Mealy mouthed Chris Kenny has Mr Mogadon on his show. He’s put it to Robb that the latest growth figures would tend to underwrite Swan’s determination to deliver a surplus in 1012/3.
    As expected Robb is bringing out the tired old points of waste, etc.

  4. My bigpond mail has been down since last night. The tech assist number is engaged. I am surprised there have been no announcements at B igpond or the wider media

  5. Andrew:

    I thought Taylor stated that the only thing keeping Abbott safe as LOTO is the high PV, because of his decreasing satisfaction ratings?

    In any case, the reported choice of Abbott’s confidants says it all: Howard, Pyne, Brandis and Barnaby. I get Howard (the coalition are all about a return to 2006), but can’t see why he would take advice from the other three.

  6. Oakeshott Country
    I just rang Telstra. There is a very long queue so I hung up. I tried to log on to my BigPond home page bet their system was down.
    Oops!!

  10. @Bushfire #148. You’re right this is ugly. Is she actually advocating for Sky?

    [But in a measure of how completely botched, corrupted and messed up the process to award the Australia Network has been, federal cabinet found itself backed into such a corner on Monday that it made a ”policy decision” that the service should be a ”permanent feature” of the ABC.]

    Isn’t she saying here that if the Cabinet considered this properly in the first place they could have justified deciding ‘no tender – give it to the national broadcaster’? News Ltd would have complained loud and long if they did that but what’s new!

    I think she’s wondering (knows most likely but not saying) how the ball was dropped – Did nobody notice the contentious possibilities, what actually went to Cabinet, were they swayed by the the responsible minister having a strong view and they just let it go or did they not want to give News another stick to beat them with and hope for the best?

    All in all, you and I and the rest are going to end up paying Sky a considerable amount of money for the costs of their tender effort.

  12. [With Brandis and Pyne as advisers, I would have thought Abbott would be a big supporter od gay marriage.]

    Why? Both Pyne and Brandis are on record saying they oppose amendments to the Marriage Act.

  14. BK

    Heard on radio that the Telstra database has been accessed by others thus the site has been closed down for a time while they try to sort it.

  17. I wouldn’t pay Sky a blasted cent. The reason given stopping the tender process was leaks which compromised it. IIRC, Sky aired the content of the leaks. If you shoot yourself in the foot, no-one’s going to buy you a new shoe.

  20. Morning all.

    Some pretty important news here on the economic front. EU leaders (except UK) have agreed on a more binding fiscal union. This is important in terms of finding a more permanent cure to the structural problems facing the Euro. It still seems hard to believe places like Greece will be able to do what is needed, but at least for the core 17 countries this should see the Euro survive.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/eu-pushes-ahead-with-fiscal-union-uk-isolated-20111210-1ooam.html

  21. morning bludgers

    Youngest daughter has been having lower back pain for a couple of months. Been having physio etc, but yesterday afternoon she suffered severe muscle spasms. She was unable to move. The paramedics had to be called to get her to hospital. They were wonderful and so were the staff at the hospital. After medication to relax her muscles and some tests, she is now home resting.

  22. We got away from all things Telstra a couple of years ago and threw our lot in with Westnet. I have not been able to fault them – especially their help desk which I have found to be both prompt and efficient.

  24. confessions 166

    I agree that Labor should tighten political donation rules too. Surely the Greens and Indies will support it? Some in Labor may worry about what they might lose. But they must remember that their opponents will lose far more, and overall Labor will be better off.

  25. Mrs BK just discovered that the pet tortoise we have had for 30 years has busted out of his pool enclosure over the last 24 hours. No doubt he has found his way down to the creek or dam to sow his wild oats.
    Hormones in Spring/Summer are powerful things.

  28. [When Julia Gillard became Prime Minister, her office turned to dealing with what quickly became known internally as the “s… iceberg”.

    It earned this crude moniker because as her office looked into the myriad things left undone or half-done by the previous occupant, the more they found.

    Part due to sticky in-tray syndrome and part due to Kevin Rudd’s predilection for doing a million things at once, the enormity of the malodorous iceberg took many months to properly survey.]

    Andrew Probyn’s column from yesterday.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/andrewprobyn/post/202/comment/1

  29. Socrates

    Thanks. It has been quite disconcerting. Especially yesterday when she was stuck standing in the doorway unable to move in excrutiating pain. Hopefully, it will be sorted with a bit of time.

  30. Good morning, Bludgers!

    BB: As usual, excellent.

    Victoria: Hope all will be well.

    BK: Nothing worse than a randy old tortoise, I always say.

  35. victoria

    A bit of gratuitous advice if I may. I spent years paying for physio massage and chiropracty for a bad back. I am 5’9″ tall which means I had to bend a lot and my back was always “going out”.

    Tried accupuncture and it really worked for me I now go to the accupuncturist maybe once in twelve months. Just a suggestion and it may be worth a try.

    Back pain is hard to live with.

  37. [All in all, you and I and the rest are going to end up paying Sky a considerable amount of money for the costs of their tender effort.]

    Worth every penny.

    Rudd screwed up big time by including them in his tenderers. The government has to cut its losses.

    There is no way known, after the recent revelations from the UK, that you could invite Sky to take over a national broadcasting role.

    The government would look like fools. The nation would look parochial. And the lessons of history would not have been learned.

    All that, and why would you give your enemy the keys to your armoury?

    Rudd got himself into a lot of problems trying to appear to be bi-partisan. His spruiking for Downer (God Save Cyprus!) and his appointment of Costello both had zero effect on their nastiness and antagonism to the government. Nelson wasn’t a nasty type to start with, so he’s kept quiet in return for a pleasant life. But two out of three is two too many.

    If Rudd is guilty of anything it’s his naiveity about the hatred his political enemies direct towards him. Chris Mitchell used to be a friend! Then he went and published a vicious story, a Kirribilli tattle-tale, about Rudd on the phone to George Bush. That should have given Rudd a clear signal that News thought – and thinks – he is a prize mug.

    No wonder the Caucus decided to get rid of him. The Party was probably worried that he’d make Howard Governor-General some day.

    I always had misgivings about Rudd, but I buried them with his success against Howard. There was something there, however, always in the back of my mind. Something along the lines of “a brilliant man with no political skills” – poor rhetoric, a poor manager of his own office, and a poor observer of changes in the political wind.

    On the last, the two examples I give are the Oceanic Viking schemozzle – he should have arrested those pirates the day they set foot on Xmas Island – and his failure to continue to prosthelytize the virtues of the CPRS. It was once – in a rare moment of bi-partisanship under Howard – ticked off at 80% approval, and after that disintegrated through lack of attention. It was a typical bureaucrat’s way of dealing with something: “80% tick… what can possibly go wrong?”

    Politics is tribal. You don’t buy off your enemies with glittering prizes. They take the money and favours and just come back nastier. Once you hate, you continue to hate. Cordiality should be confined to the modicum of decency that working relationships require… no more than that. Rudd thought he could charm Costello? Downer? Turnbull? Mitchell? Murdoch himself? They saw Rudd coming from a mile off.

    Now that he’s gone, and I’m over the shock, I’m really glad of it. One by one his crackpot policies and initiatives are being dismantled. Sure I supported him, because I had to. Even convinced myself that he was on the ball, but he wasn’t.

    There was a lot of unwarranted nastiness directed towards Rudd, but a lot of it he positively asked for. It was as if he was making things deliberately hard for himself so he could impress everyone with how cleverly he won through in the end. In short, Rudd had to go.

    The Australia TV mess is a mess of his making that, once again, Gillard has to clean up and take the opprobrium for. Taylor, a Murdoch refugee herself, must know how poisonous the atmosphere is a News. She’d know also why a Labor government could never seriously contemplate giving Murdoch the time of day, much less a powerful broadcasting podium. So in that way, no, she’s not directly barracking for Sky. She’d be mad if she was.

    To me, her article was, though, a fairly cheap shot at the government, a chance to prove her “balance” credentials. Her last paragraph was uncalled for:

    [Strip all those things away and this sorry saga just paints a picture of the way this government does business. And it’s not a pretty one.]

    The way this government does business is to save the nation from the GFC, build the NBN, enhance health, tax carbon at last in an effective manner, develop policies through a proper Cabinet process (not the leader’s chronic flatulence of the brain), run a clean ship in general and do it all for the good of the nation.

    But like all relatively civilized operations there are still bodily functions to take care of, still the garbage to be put out and still slightly unsavoury things to be done to maintain the household. You don’t make babies by keeping your knickers on, and you get rid of waste by keeping them down and doing a poo, sometimes a smelly one. Every now and again a cockroach has to be swatted. You can catch a Huntsman and take him outside like a responsible lover of the environment, but a Funnel Web in the sink gets the death penalty. And we all pick our noses when we think no-one’s watching.

    One of the unpleasant things we do is sending soldiers – all volunteers – to die in Afghanistan. Another is to decide who wins and who loses when spending cuts are made. Another is to reverse a blatantly stupid decision to award a political enemy and known, malignant, rogue organization a prize broadcasting gig funded by taxpayers’ money.

    Taylor should have known this was just taking out the garbage, unpleasant and unsavoury but it had to be done. Asking rhetorical questions about “Why?” was thus just a cheap shot. Using this as an example of “how this government does business” was unfair and uncalled for, especially from a supposedly politically savvy operator like Taylor.

    Gillard does not work for Rudd. Rudd works for Gillard. She is not obliged to honour the last-minute supply orders he placed simply to embarrass her. If the supplier doesn’t do the right thing and decline to supply under these circumstances, then you cancel the order anyway and see what he does in retribution.

    Currying favour with Murdoch has never worked for Labor. This is Gillard’s recognition of that reality. A savvy journo type like Taylor should have known that, probably does know it, but in the atmosphere of exquisite court etiquette that “senior” journalists seem to use when dealing with each other, she failed to actually do her job and write about it.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/tv-drama-upstaged-by-political-soap-opera-20111209-1ondg.html#ixzz1g4vdw3vs

  39. Morning all – does Lenore Taylor tweet cos BB’s piece this morning needs to be sent to her. I hope she isn’t angling for a return to Murdochia or a permanent spot on SkyNews.

    Maybe she was told to write one negative article about Labor and one about the Oppn (the abbott piece)

  42. [All that, and why would you give your enemy the keys to your armoury?]

    BB:

    Andrew Probyn had this to say about Rudd’s handling of the Aust Network contract:

    [Putting it ever so bluntly, Mr Rudd’s enemies suspected the former prime minister was using the leverage he had as portfolio minister for the Australia Network to curry favour with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation which, through its 39 per cent of BSkyB, has a part-share in Sky News Australia, the other bidder.

    If Mr Rudd was seeking to rebuild his leadership through a popular revolt on her office by ensnaring powerful influence outside caucus, Ms Gillard’s backers would have none of it.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/andrewprobyn/post/202/comment/1

  44. [In fact, turning the Opposition Leader’s office into a campaigning machine was one of Abbott’s first innovations. His

    predecessors Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson hardly ever did election-style press calls and had no ”advance” staff dedicated to organising them. Abbott has always had at least four.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-doubts-aired-at-crash-through-tactics-20111209-1onme.html#ixzz1g52iufvq

    According to this we are paying for a 4 year Liberal Party campaign (2009-2014) which is an enormous donation to the Liberal Party and should be shown on the Register of Donations or whatever.

    No other LOTO has enjoyed such largesse. Why aren’t we making waves about it.

    Check how many times Abbott has flown around the joint in the 4-6 weeks. He was in WA for CHOAG and back there last week – why so soon? I’m not happy, Joan!

  45. mtbw

    Thanks.

    My daughter had a virus back in August which caused liver inflammation. Her back became very sore. Ever since then she has had lower back pain. She has had xrays etc and everything appears okay. She has done some physio and was required to do some daily exercises and stretches. This week however, her symptons had worsened and culminated in severe spasms. I occasionally see a woman who does muscle manipulation and she is amazing. You only need to be treated for 10 minutes and you are right for months on end. When my daughter’s symptons settle down, that is her next port of call.

  46. BH

    Abbott and his cronies would be easily dealt with by the govt at the next election, if the relationship the party has with Rudd is sorted out properly before then.
    There is an elephant in the room, and until that is dealt with, Abbott and his motley crew have a good chance

  47. @BH #194

    I was thinking about all this flying about Mr Abbott (and helpers) are doing earlier. Are we paying for all his little ‘visits/pressers’ in far flung locations.

    Some visable information would be ‘nice’. The Dept of Finance has this information.

    I might have a dig around later to see what is publicly available.

  49. BK

    I knew tortoises were slow movers but I didn’t know they take 30 years to sexual maturity!!

    Telstra: my email service has been out since about 4pm yesterday, but thank goodness I still have BigPond broadband (and therefore PB to keep me up to date).

    Brandis, Pyne and Barnaby as Tone’s closest advisors – WTF?

  50. vic,

    I read that sun expose.

    I found it rather underwhelming. If that’s all they’ve got to throw at him, Slipper will survive and thrive.

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