Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 thoughts on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. vic

    good Q

    Nothing at all

    but it certainly has opened a lot of previously closed doors

    i suppose one could point to the iraq stuff thru to the arb spring

    even perrhaps the notw stuff

    further the ows and anony peeps

    of course pre wiki we were well served by our information overlords

    👿

  2. gusface

    I had high hopes for wikileaks. Still waiting for the Iraq WMD and the banking collapse that caused the GFC to come out. You would think that these would have been the first things to be exposed. I am very cynical about Assange

  3. [actually u epitomise the wiful ignorance

    play the man not the ball]
    So you criticise me for playing the man and do it yourself. Good one.

  4. I originally had time for Assange but now consider him a prize wanker. Still wouldn’t want to see him go to an American jail for that.

  5. [Assange is getting exactly what he is entitled to, from all accounts.]
    Personally I prefer that people get what they deserve AFTER a fair trial first. Assange hasn’t had one yet. The whole shift in standards of due processs that has paralled the “war on terror” has been regrettable for anyoen concerned about civil liberties. Assange may not be a saint or a martyr, but he is just as entitled to his liberty as say, Cameron Thompson or Mary Jo Fisher.

    Those who aren’t concerned about civil liberties should be. They are the basis of western democracy, not the media circus we identify it with now. We are losing them.

    That being said, I feel far more sorry for Private Bradley Manning than Assange. He has been imprisoned, confined and treated not much better than some former Guantanamo inmates, for exposing that the US defence forces hides killers of civilians within its ranks. Neither Manning nor the killers he exposed have been tried until now, but only Manning has been in prison. The moral decay of the US defence forces is (to me) stark.

  6. [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Horsey, SHY said this morning that she supports the “Regional Solution”. Please tell us what that is. ]
    Anything but Malaysia?

  7. Socrates,

    The only person denying Assange a fair trial is Julian himself with his endless appeals against the process.

  8. GD,

    SHY is your latter day equivalent of Alice through the Looking Glass. Everything she says is the opposite of what it should be.

  9. Victoria makes a good point for about this time last year there was talk that in the new year (2011) Wilki was going t6o dump the dirt on a major American Bank. I don’t recall that ever happening

  10. GG

    True, Assange is doing everythign he can to face Swedish courts. My point though was that some here seem to have writen him off as guilty/deserving no sympathy when there has been no trial. When similar attitudes were expresed towards Craig Thompson there were howls of outrage.

  11. gus,

    My point is that socrates is whingeing about Assange not having had a trial yet and it is actually Assange that is causing the delay.

  12. [he was naughty, got caught and whinged about it

    deep bushfire deep]

    You make my point, Gus. Thanks.

    Assange is not deep at all, neither is his predicament. There is no need to get “deep” when figuring out what he’s all about.

    He’s a prat who got caught. Indeed he hung himself out to get caught, bragged about how powerful he was, taunted governments and Prime Ministers for not falling down in front of him.

    In short, he wanted the attention of “those in high places”, and now he’s attracted it.

    He was quite happy to take the adulation and the fawning from his fans. He was more than keen to get written up in the papers as some kind of saint. He took the Walkley, and didn’t forget to kick a few heads in the process. But when it comes to paying the piper, it seems he forgot to dot his i’s and cross his t’s.

    Assange is not a deep person – unless you’re referring to the deep doo-doo he is in now, or the deep holes that some of his victims are in, hiding from retribution after he blew their cover. Some probably deserved it. Some didn’t. Assange didn’t care, or didn’t care enough to bother thinking his actions through. He went out to make enemies and he thought he’d be protected. Foolishly.

    He could have done his leaking much more anonymously than he did, perhaps even totally anonymously. He could have eschewed the Glamour Pages, and moved well away from the limelight.

    But Assange wanted to be a hero. He couldn’t help himself. He thought he could take on governments – some, like ours, that had never done him any harm – and get away with it without a scratch.

    He is finding out now that he is an ordinary citizen, with all the consular rights and entitlements of an ordinary citizen, scrupulously applied to him, just as any citizen would at least hope to experience (although I bet “being Julian Assange” gave somewhat of an edge to the scrupulosity, even from the Gillard government he slagged off so breezily).

    If you want “special” treatment, then you help yourself by playing nice – or at least not nasty – with those who can give it to you. Otherwise you get the chapter-and-verse, regulation version. It’s common sense. Nothing deep at all.

    Assange strikes me as someone who’d be a shameless narcissist in whatever profession he chose. It’s all about him. The leaks bit is incidental. He had some computer skills, a Mum who adored him and molly-coddled to his every wish, and the rest is history. If he’d employed an agent, Harry M. Miller perhaps, he might have done better than by employing a lawyer.

    You don’t need to be “deep” to be a self-serving dickhead, and a fool to boot.

    Maybe next time he’ll be a bit more discreet.

  13. [ Assange is getting exactly what he is entitled to, from all accounts.

    Personally I prefer that people get what they deserve AFTER a fair trial first.]

    You misunderstood me, Soc. What I meant was he was getting everything consular assistance-wize that he deserves. It’s just that he wants the Premium Care, interventions at high levels, special treatment. He doesn’t deserve that.

    There’d have to be a helluva lot more egregious and blatant miscarriage of justice than umpteen British justices, in several courts, through multiple appeals, with the best barristers on your side arguing your case for you – and all for free – for him to qualify as a “special” case.

    I suppose you could argue that the entire British judicial system is crooked and doing only the government’s bidding, and that the Swedish one will be similarly corrupt, but it’s a long bow to draw at this stage of the proceedings.

  14. Socrates,

    My observtion is that the howls of outrage are mostly coming from those declaring him innocent before the trial.

  15. BB
    [You misunderstood me, Soc. What I meant was he was getting everything consular assistance-wize that he deserves. It’s just that he wants the Premium Care, interventions at high levels, special treatment. He doesn’t deserve that. ]
    Agreed. I just want due process, no more no less. I would not support any government intervention unless justifying circumstances were proven, not merely alleged.

  16. BB – I think Assange is someone that does not understand how and why things work as they did.

    He strikes me as someone that has the attitude of our dare people have conversations and they not bring on the front page of the newspaper.

    I think brat is a good way of putting it. I agree he is a shallow person but then again people that act all pure and expect pure behavior are normally shallow

  17. If Assange was fair dinkum, the lies of WMD and the corrupt practices of the Goldman Sachs and others would have bern exposed a few years ago. Still waiting

  18. [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Horsey, SHY said this morning that she supports the “Regional Solution”. Please tell us what that is. ]

    Open door refugee policy for Ballarat and Wagga Wagga?

  19. [sspencer_63 Stephen Spencer
    Sarah Hanson Young’s answer to stopping boats appears to be that we offer everyone who makes it to Indonesia a free flight …]

    This is indeed what she proposed during an election campaign The Nation panel last year.

  20. [Essential Report

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (+1) L/NP 54 (-1)
    Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+1) L/NP 47 (-1) {LIB 45 (+1) NAT 3 (0)} GRN 9 (-1)]

    I am sorry, but this goes against what the media is saying. The Coalition is returning back to 60-40 territory and the ALP should give up hope.

    [My observtion is that the howls of outrage are mostly coming from those declaring him innocent before the trial.]

    Is he not innocent until proven otherwise?

  21. victoria:

    Hard to know. This morning she said the Greens want a regional solution. Pity her party has pledged to vote against the very amendments the govt proposed which would make it possible.

  22. I posted 2 comments on Maley’s article in the SMH this morning, one agreeing with what someone else said, the second my masterpiece I though, was I found JWH extraordinary only for the fact he was only the second prime minister to get “turfed ” out of his seat in Australian history and perhaps when Journalists lifted their standard of reporting ‘maybe journos like Maley might get a Christmas card next year,
    Guess which one was published, sorry no prizes for this one

  23. Socrates – I’m not writing him off as guilty of the charges in Sweden but let the case proceed and get a decision.

    My beef with him is that he has released only info which reflects one side of the political divide. Why? I can’t take him seriously until he explains it properly. Also think it is ridiculous for him to have been award a Walkley. Was that to enable him to say he is a recognised journalist which could then protect him a little?

  24. Socrates I am not sure the ethics of the US defence forces is much different than it was 50 years ago, most other defence forces in the world could be similarly criticised. However that does not excuse a member of the organisation allegedly providing an unauthorised organisation with classified information he was charged with protecting. Manning made a pledge and allegedly broke that pledge. I have little sympathy for him if the allegations are proved.

  25. Soc

    [Personally I prefer that people get what they deserve AFTER a fair trial first. Assange hasn’t had one yet.]

    The rule of law seems not to matter on here.

  26. Essential results suggest government still behind but not grossly. If Nielsen was not a rogue, it was probably a reaction to the confected outrage over the Labor conference and then the ministry shuffle, neither of which was harmful to Labor.

    I’m with Andrew Elder. The government is on course with policy achievements and has positioned its ministry to take advantage of that, and to contrast it with Abbott’s lot. It should be a very different picture by mid-2012.

    Thanks for the primary figures, Mithrandir. If 35 is where it’s at, I’d expect it to be much closer to the magic 4 PJK talks about by the same timeframe.

  27. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    oh Dear, the Dear Leader has died. I am going to miss the TV Newsreader
    29 seconds ago

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