GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.
You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.
meanwhile, over in the real economy (courtersy of The Kouk blog):
[Bond Yields Hit Record Lows
The yield on a 10 year Australian government bond is trading at a record low around 3.73% this morning. There are several factors which go determine bond yields, but the most notable are inflation and risk.
Inflation matters because an investor would be unlikely to want to lend money to the government for 10 years (that is, buy a 10 year bond), if the return (annual interest rate) is eaten away by inflation. The higher the expected rate of inflation, the higher the yield needed to attract investors to buy and hold that bond.
The current record low yield on Australian bonds suggests investors are expecting inflation to be very low over an extended period of time. The near 20 year lows for board commodity pricesplus the massive amount of spare capacity in the global economy suggests this to be a well founded backdrop to the current record low yields.
A dominant issue at play now and in fact in recent years is the pricing of risk into bond yields. Again, think of an investor buying a 10 year bond. The greater the risk of default by the government, the higher the premium (interest rate) required by an investor to make that trade. With Greece clearly a high risk of default, it is no surprise that some of its bond yields hit 100%. What return would you insist on if you thought it likely the entity wouldn’t pay you back? With risk of an Italian default rising, it is also no surprise its yields have skyrocketed.
With the risk of a US or German default on bonds very low (it seems), yields in those countries are around 1.85% – also near record lows. They are big enough to keep printing money to pay back investors – or at least that is the common perception at the moment.
For Australia, which is one of only 8 countries (at last count) that has AAA and stable ratings from all three major credit ratings agencies, sovereign risk is assessed to be one of the lowest in the world. The risk of the Australian government defaulting on a bond is as close to zero as you can get – hence the record low yields.
On balance, it seems likely that Australian bond yields can fall further. Some in the market are still spooked by inflation for some unknown reason and there is some hopelessly ill-informed chatter about sovereign risk in Australia. When these misunderstanding fade further into the back blocks with updated data on falling inflation and the return to Budget surplus in 2012-13, we should see yields continuing to meet new record lows.
Posted by Stephen Koukoulas at 15:22 ]
[What a pathetic article from Maley in the SMH.
Or maybe, like so many of my countrymen, I’m grumpy because the level of debate this year has been so appallingly base.
Of course you and your ilk have had nothing to do with the dumbing down of discourse on important issues and policies!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-importance-of-being-an-earnest-but-not-an-ordinary-politician-20111218-1p0o5.html#ixzz1gvMIlStZ ]
Good to have you here, BK. Yes, if only she’d changed the wording in that sentence to “…the level of political coverage and reporting had been so appallingly base.” she’d have been at least in respectable territory, close to John Menidue’s views.
But as mentioned above, she lost me when she had Howard at the top of her list of Great Prime Ministers. Longevity of office does not equal greatness, as we saw 80 years earlier with S M Bruce. Both of them deservedly dumped.
Last night, I posted:
[“No one is born hating another person for the color of their skin, religion, or background. Hatred and intolerance have to be learned. Even in the grimmest times I have seen glimmers of humanity which assured me that man’s goodness is a flame that can never be extinguished.” –Nelson Mandela]
confessions responded soon after with:
[If only the world’s ills could be reduced to a cafe slogan.
Such is the mindset of today’s Greens Party and their blogosphere shills.]
and
[Today is not a day for politics.]
“Fiasco” is one of those words that Journos love, and overuse to buggary. It’s use is a sign of amateurism. The election campaign equivalent is “Caravanserai” which gets trotted out every election by some dingbat or other, almost inevitably in the wrong context completely.
When I see a journo use those words I know not to take anything else they say too seriously as they have just illustrated their stupidity and shallowness.
horse peg
its all about u
there there
gusface,
😆 PB is all about the whinging and whining of the Labortariat.
BB
I cant recall where it was reported, but asylum seekers were interviewed earlier in the year, and they made it very clear that the Impending Malaysia policy was being reported widely in these circles. People were not engaging people smugglers on the off chance they would be sent back to Malaysia. it is ridiculous to believe that our policy positions is not known by asylum seekers.
[And yet for all her alleged ordinariness, Gillard has failed this year to come across as personable or, to use a dreadful American word, relatable. ]
Ah yes, dreadful! Well why use it then Jacqueline Maley?
Could it be that it offers another layer of innuendo to layer on to a Prime Minister that most of you seem to desperately despise?
Another layer to go with the numerable layers that have been meticulously layered on and more so by the female of the species msm who one would think would be more tolerant and understanding of the difficulties Australia’s first female PM must have to overcome to gain acceptance in the general community.
No, that difficulty of acceptance just makes it all the more easy to slag off like some low life playground bully with very little between the ears.
u obviously are in PR
Thanks to everyone for all the article links & analysis – just reading through them all
Opinion piece written by Michael Pearce, SC, a former president of Liberty Victoria. He is one of 74 signatories to an open letter to Kevin Rudd published today about the plight of Julian Assange.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/assanges-treatment-says-a-lot-about-us-20111218-1p0o2.html
[But we need to stop to reflect on Assange’s fate and what it says about us and our country.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/an-open-letter-to-foreign-minister-kevin-rudd-20111218-1p0zf.html
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fraser-urges-protection-of-assange-20111218-1p0v4.html
The death toll in the Philippines has risen to over 600.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-19/philippines-am/3737498
[No, that difficulty of acceptance just makes it all the more easy to slag off like some low life playground bully with very little between the ears.]
scorps
interesting
the same sentiment was expressed to me recently
ie
when the msmis employing such gutter journalism, maybe its time to meet them at their level
If they are employing no discernible standard to their musings and INTENTIONALLY trying to destabilise and scare the australian people?
Why shouldnt those exacts tactics be used agin em?
Hi george
A public thanks for the “tasty” PhotoShop work you did on the SA Chapter’s welcome to scorpio. Puff and I think it is best kept private, though.
[confessions
Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 8:53 am | Permalink
Bushfire Bill gets a mention in Andrew Elder’s latest post.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/12/reshuffle.html ]
Thanks for that Elder ref, fess. Always worth a read. I loved this summary
[The press gallery was embarrassed by its failure to pick Slipper taking the Speakership this year, and Gillard taking the Prime Ministership last year. Insider status means nothing, press gallery doyen(ne) status nothing, nothing at all]
Hillbilly Skeleton also has a nice turn of phrase on Greens in the comments .
[Hi george
A public thanks for the “tasty” PhotoShop work you did on the SA Chapter’s welcome to scorpio. Puff and I think it is best kept private, though.]
Glad you liked it BK – and I assumed the “private” part, hence why I only emailed to you 🙂
Mumble today on the proposed Constitutional amendment to include reference to indigenous Australians, and the likelihood of it succeeding.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/referendum/
george
It’s just that I saw a number of Bludgers last night were keen to see it.
They won’t.
[PB is all about the whinging and whining of the Labortariat.]
And Horsey is all about the whinging and whining of the Labortariat’s whinging and whining on PB
so Horsey, here’s Mr. Pot and meet Mrs. Kettle 😛
ps: your analytical and commentary skills have not improved. 😥
[Hillbilly Skeleton also has a nice turn of phrase on Greens in the comments .]
😆 Hilarious.
SHY was shown on Sky just now blathering away about a “regional solution”. Complete hypocrisy given her own party vowed to vote against the Govt’s amendments to the Migration Act, which would’ve enabled a regional approach.
The Greens continue to demonstrate that all they want to do is snipe from the sidelines rather than work to achieve anything meaningful.
Horsey, SHY said this morning that she supports the “Regional Solution”. Please tell us what that is.
[But we need to stop to reflect on Assange’s fate and what it says about us and our country.]
Yes, I’m reflecting on it.
* Assange selectively leaked only anti-Labor memos.
* He was been slagging Gillard off ever since, including in self-serving diatribes on Lateline a few months ago, and at the Walkley Awards the other day.
* He is on the record as praising Rupert Murdoch (!) as a champion of truth and freedom.
* His own organization has disowned him for being a pompous, biased git who’s gone off the reservation.
* He is on rape charges, properly issued in a civilized country with a recognizable legal code.
* He is receiving appropriate consular assistance to the letter of the law.
* The man can’t resist drawing attention to himself, big-noting himself, turning himself into a heroic martyr, using and abusing others, and mocking anyone who doesn’t think he’s God’s gift to humanity in the process.
* He is a one-man episode of Banged Up Abroad, or perhaps World’s Dumbest Crooks might be more appropriate.
And he wants the government he has slandered so often to single him out for special, lenient treatment?
Should have thought of that when he shot his big mouth off, methinks. He shat in his own nest, as well as many others’, now he’s going to eat some.
He knew the consequences, he should take his chances, just like the rest of us would have to do.
[ps: your analytical and commentary skills have not improved.]
Cutting and pasting what other people say rather than forming one’s own views does not represent analysis. In today’s msm however, it would easily pass for ‘commentary’.
bb – quite right – and that is why i would never sign a petition in support of this person
And Horsey, dont you dare “cut and run”
[george
It’s just that I saw a number of Bludgers last night were keen to see it.
They won’t.]
One even sent an e-cheque for $1,000,000 – I said “no way, I have a reputation to uphold”… yeah you can stop laughing now….
[bb – quite right – and that is why i would never sign a petition in support of this person]
Likewise.
http://www.acma.gov.au/WEB/STANDARD/pc=PC_410263
[19 December 2011
ABC breached for lack of impartiality
The ABC Adelaide local radio station 5AN breached the impartiality requirements of the ABC code of practice in an interview with the South Australian State politician Kevin Foley on 5 April 2011. The interview took place during the program Breakfast.
The ACMA found that the presenters displayed fixed prejudgment on the topics discussed, asked loaded questions and used disparaging language. ]
just one of many many cases of THEIR ABC
BB – good to read your post yesterday about Bob and his new lease on life.
I’ve given our old boy a lecture this morning and told him if Bob and Scringler’s old fella can do it, then so can he. I think he listened 🙂
BTw – also good to see that Leroy is making sure others read your excellent dissections of our lowly talented MSM. Thanks Leroy
[Cutting and pasting what other people say rather than forming one’s own views does not represent analysis. In today’s msm however, it would easily pass for ‘commentary’.]
fess, that’s why like to use indents, font styles, bullets and underlining 😉
George,
We know about your reputation.
We are just haggling about the price.
you can rake over the assange coals all u want
he achieved his and others objective(s)
[bb – quite right – and that is why i would never sign a petition in support of this person]
It’s Interpersonal Relationships #101: you don’t bite the hand you might one day need to feed you, and then make it worse by biting it again and again.
Assange is getting exactly what he is entitled to, from all accounts. He has set out to cause trouble and now he is whingeing about it. A classic dummy-spit.
His status of Sainthood is only self-conferred, thus it does not entitle him to sit at the right hand of God, consular assistance-wize.
[george
It’s just that I saw a number of Bludgers last night were keen to see it.
They won’t.]
wikileaks moves in mysterious ways BK 👿
BB at 6800.
No joke about Chris Smith at all – the deaths would be grist to his mill but I don’t accept anyone feels politically contented by the deaths. If that allegation could be sustained it could be pointed at all manner of people in the political/journalistic spectrum.
I agree that Abbott/Morrison lack sincereity but so do plenty of others.
The suggested effectiveness/ineffectiveness of the solution is surmise only. The notion that the government should be allowed to govern without question is an anathema.
The HC repudiated Malaysia as a lawful process. The proposed amendments seemed to have as a draftsperson someone writing anti-terror legislation with procedural fairness expunged not by implication but in words. Why should anyone support such amendments, why is the expunging of procedural fairness necessary? And why Malaysia, a nation unloved and untrusted under Keating – has it changed, I doubt it as demonstrated by the haughty performance of the prime minister at APEC when questioned about the proposals and the failure to adopt the Convention.
The way ahead is in the hands of the team comprising the AG, Solicitor General and the Home Affairs Minister. A genuine talent pool at last. None of those would be content with the status quo.
[BTw – also good to see that Leroy is making sure others read your excellent dissections of our lowly talented MSM. Thanks Leroy]
He is? Thanks, Leroy.
I only wish some of the scribes would read them, and much else that makes it here by way of pointed comments.
[and that is why i would never sign a petition in support of this person]
Me either. Anyone would think Assange had been left high and dry by the Aust govt and was rotting in some godforsaken jail in a tin-pot nation somewhere. Seriously, the worshipping of this man on the part of some people is really quite astonishing.
[bb – quite right – and that is why i would never sign a petition in support of this person]
ditto, but last time I posted against the bloke I got a bit of abuse here. Glad to see others feel the same way about him.
[George, We know about your reputation.
We are just haggling about the price.]
GG, i have made George an offer he cant refuse. Or the Horsey head. His choice.
Interesting take by Nick McCallum on the AS tragedy this morning on 3AW. You can’t blame either the government or the opposition just the people smugglers and those boarding the boats. He also thinks we need a ‘genuine’ regional processing centre. He doesn’t believe either the government or the opposition have the answers.
Of course the usual suspects got on, from both sides it must be said, sprouting their cause.
Bushfire Bill:
You made it into an Andrew Elder post.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/12/reshuffle.html
Bushfire et al
so quick to judge
so long to learn
🙁
Laocoön has just returned from Christmas shopping at that high temple of consumerism, Westfield Bondi (gift purchases:nil), and it was sort of busy, but not really so. Now perhaps most of the population is more organised than I (highly likely), but then I saw this from Billabong.
Combining a political imperative of budget surplus, a slowish domestic economy, potentially weaker China, then interest rates may take up more of the change in 2012 (ie lower)
[Shares in surf and skate wear company Billabong have crashed more than 34 per cent after the company warned that its sales growth had significantly deteriorated in the months to December, forcing it to issue a blistering profit downgrade…
Its warning comes as rival Quiksilver said at an earnings briefing last week that trading conditions were proving increasingly tough with the key market of Australia showing recession-like conditions.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/billabong-wiped-out-on-profit-warning-20111219-1p1eo.html#ixzz1gwKQ1YAX
[Assange is getting exactly what he is entitled to, from all accounts. ]
This is just so ignorant in so many way…
The normalcy bias around here is so ingrained that we are willing to shit on ourselves to maintain it.
[Bushfire et al
so quick to judge
so long to learn]
Don’t tell us your problems gus.
[The normalcy bias around here is so ingrained that we are willing to shit on ourselves to maintain it.]
And you’re not biased? P-lease.
gary
ha
actually u epitomise the wiful ignorance
play the man not the ball
oh well, wiki was waste, i mean what did it achieve
😀
Awwwww. Cute.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/12400734/new-babies-for-monkey-mia-dolphin-family/
[It’s Interpersonal Relationships #101: you don’t bite the hand you might one day need to feed you, and then make it worse by biting it again and again.]
interesting analogy
[Assange is getting exactly what he is entitled to, from all accounts. He has set out to cause trouble and now he is whingeing about it. A classic dummy-spit]
another one.
[His status of Sainthood is only self-conferred, thus it does not entitle him to sit at the right hand of God, consular assistance-wize.]
triple play
:0
summary
he was naughty, got caught and whinged about it
deep bushfire deep
gusface
What has Assange achieved?