GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.
You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.
La Stupenda will be delighted
I’m gonna repost this because I posted it after William’s “New thread” notification:
Generally speaking, the top echelon of a cabinet is:
Leader
2IC
Followed by who is in charge of:
Economy/Finances
Foreign Affairs
Defence
The Law (ie AG)
Health and Education also are strongly relevant to most modern cabinets too.
It should be noted that in Parliamentary government, these are usually stepping stones to the leadership.
[Arbib to Assistant Treasurer, ]
Oh, great. Just what we need.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
Shorten to Workplace Relations, Arbib to Assistant Treasurer, Roxon to Attorney-General. bit.ly/rwomWg #auspol
2 minutes ago]
BTW: U R a deadset legend GWV!
Good night all.
Posted at end of previous thread.
A very bad poll. Difficult to explain โ putting aside the Ruddstoration I think it is possible that two issues are currently hurting the Government with what used to be called the blue collar vote. Firstly the Conference decision on gay marriage (while perfectly reasonable) is unlikely to garner many extra votes from those who support it (I know a number of gay strong Liberal voters who will not change their vote on this issue) but it is extremely likely to lose some socially conservative voters who should be voting for Labor. Secondly the Government is getting murdered in the tabloid press, the shock jocks and even the MSM generally as each additional boat arrives.
IQ just went up
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
Shorten to Workplace Relations, Arbib to Assistant Treasurer, Roxon to Attorney-General. http://bit.ly/rwomWg #auspol]
Interesting.
Why do u lot believe polls
Ok. Now 1000 people, ar e phoned
If by accident 700 are li real voters rusted on s possible
Then 300 are labor
Bingo that’s your poll
Sorry but willism u will, never convince me other wise
A bit up, a bit down, yada yada.
Arbib
Your joking
[Arbib to Assistant Treasurer,]
Crappy but it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s the kind of role powerbrokers are built for. Influential and well paid but not in the public’s eye. And yes, Rudd would be making similar appointments, as would any Coalition leader.
And, this exists in every parliamentary democracy… or even executive democracy. Really, anywhere with political parties…
Puff what s your take on it look to the right of your screen
And see the variations makes no sence at all
I can see the merit in promoting Shorten and Nicola, but Arbib? You’ve got to be kidding – I’m afraid that one smacks of Julia rewarding one of her principal backers.
Yes, Foreign Affairs, really the third highest position.
Diogs is wRONg again, worth repeating ๐ ๐
[ Arbib to Assistant Treasurer,
Oh, great. Just what we need. ]
Just what I thought too! ๐
O well I suppose he can answer
Senate questions about money,
Mtbw dtt gee they will have a field day with you all tomorrow. Enjoy
Yes, it smells like the Ruddites are being punished: Carr getting the boot altogether, Bowen being tied to Immigration etc.
[Yes, Foreign Affairs, really the third highest position.]
Centre, I didn’t think it was worth even discussing ๐
settle petals
the yo yo effect
i think the silly season is in full swing
[Why do u lot believe polls]
Because they are by far the best indication of what is happening.
Why would you not believe them, Mysay?
[settle petals]
gus, who you callin’ a petal? BTW, I’m permanently unsettled
Look only we may understand, things like that,
The general
Public would have no idea
But i suppose they will be told
[Yes, Foreign Affairs, really the third highest position.]
Except that Rudd really doesn’t have that much power in this administration anymore.
[my say
Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
Why do u lot believe polls
Ok. Now 1000 people, ar e phoned
If by accident 700 are li real voters rusted on s possible
Then 300 are labor
Bingo thatโs your poll
Sorry but willism u will, never convince me other wise]
My say:
How do I put this? You clearly havent a clue about random selection and statistics of chance.
Thats the whole point about sample sizes and margins of error, its all about the likelihood of picking 700 liberals out of 1000. Unless the pollster was standing outside Menzies House with a clipboard that aint gonna happen by random polling methods (well, perhaps once in a million years but certainly not 35 times in 5 months!)
[Because they are by far the best indication of what is happening.]
steve, what’s “happening”, where?
My Say: You tend to believe the polls that suit your narrative – ie. That Julia is streets ahead of Abbott. ๐
On my list of cabinet positions, I would add that labour and industrial relations are important in Australia’s system and would probably warrant a seat in the “upper echelon” too.
Does Arbib have the ability, or based on his performance, does he deserve to be Assistant Treasurer ahead of someone else?
I doubt it!
The culture must change.
[The general
Public would have no idea]
The General Public are the majority of voters in this country.
Steve its who u ask on the day
Thsts just sensible
If yo are gold calling u dount know before u call who these people vote for
Its the luck or the draw,
Think about it
Garrett really threatened to quit altogether?
Would Labor really have feared a byelection in Kingsford Smith?
Putting Arbib into Assistant Treasurer is probably a good move. Lots of donkey work in that job and almost no capacity for independent action or getting the government into trouble.
[Arbib? Youโve got to be kidding โ Iโm afraid that one smacks of Julia rewarding one of her principal backers.]
That’s probably the worst thing she could have done!
Rudd gave him a dream run through to the ministry and look what Arbib did to thank him!
Arbib probably now thinks that no matter what he does, it will always turn up roses for him!
I know what I would have done to him. he’d have a permanent squeaky voice afterwards! ๐
“When Ms Gillard told Mr Garrett and Mr McClelland she wanted them to resign from cabinet to pave the way for new blood, Mr Garrett threatened to resign from parliament. Mr McClelland also refused to step aside. The pair were backed by other NSW ministers.”
TLM
The article linked says Bowen refused a change, wanting to stay in Immi to “finish the job”, and I assume the Ruddites would be punished. It is live or die that close to the throne.
My say,
I am not quite sure of your meaning, what is on the right of the screen, where?
[almost no capacity for independent action or getting the government into trouble. ]
Or benefiting it either. That would suit Arbib just fine, I reckon.
What a stand-out Sports Minister he hasn’t been!
[Would Labor really have feared a byelection in Kingsford Smith?]
Labor would almost certainly lose a byelection in Kingsford Smith held now. (IMO).
General public don’t know names
If u went out in to in to pitt st, tomorrow and ask who the gov, sports minister is
I bet they wouldn’t know there was one,
The just hear the rot, and no substance
And that’s not labors fault
[Its the luck or the draw,
Think about it]
Not true Mysay check out the last poll before the next Federal election and you will find they are pretty well spot on. The Coalition go up a bit when boats arrive Labor goes up a bit when interest rates go down and overall the public get it pretty right.
Previous polls, recently conducted puff
[Except that Rudd really doesnโt have that much power in this administration anymore.]
Rubbish. He has had plenty of power and influence as FM. Just because the PM went over his head on a few policy decisions (which the PM has the power to do and PMs regularly do – including one who was notorious for doing it, one Kevin Rudd) doesn’t mean he is powerless.
Arbib
What a joke, Labor is going to the NSW dogs.
Its a trend alright.
Arbib to asst treasurer moves him into a portfolio where he actually has to produce stuff.
If u average them out its 44
Just went and got my calculator,44.5
Really not sure this is a smart reshuffle by Julia, the MSM will perceive her as rewarding those who got her into the top job and firming up her power base against any threat from Rudd & his supporters.
Andrew Leigh misses out.
A shame.
[Labor would almost certainly lose a byelection in Kingsford Smith held now. (IMO).]
To an independent but I doubt a Liberal.
Arbib’s never achieved anything noteworthy in terms of policy – the man’s only where he is because of his political headkicking skills.
It’s a blow to Labor Party reform that such a dinosaur like him gets promoted.
53/49
Ess tomorrow my prediction
Mod lib will u be back then also
I was not fooled by your graciousness in nz