Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  2. I’m gonna repost this because I posted it after William’s “New thread” notification:

    Generally speaking, the top echelon of a cabinet is:

    Leader
    2IC

    Followed by who is in charge of:

    Economy/Finances
    Foreign Affairs
    Defence
    The Law (ie AG)

    Health and Education also are strongly relevant to most modern cabinets too.

    It should be noted that in Parliamentary government, these are usually stepping stones to the leadership.

  4. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    Shorten to Workplace Relations, Arbib to Assistant Treasurer, Roxon to Attorney-General. bit.ly/rwomWg #auspol
    2 minutes ago]

    BTW: U R a deadset legend GWV!

    Good night all.

  5. Posted at end of previous thread.

    A very bad poll. Difficult to explain – putting aside the Ruddstoration I think it is possible that two issues are currently hurting the Government with what used to be called the blue collar vote. Firstly the Conference decision on gay marriage (while perfectly reasonable) is unlikely to garner many extra votes from those who support it (I know a number of gay strong Liberal voters who will not change their vote on this issue) but it is extremely likely to lose some socially conservative voters who should be voting for Labor. Secondly the Government is getting murdered in the tabloid press, the shock jocks and even the MSM generally as each additional boat arrives.

  8. Why do u lot believe polls

    Ok. Now 1000 people, ar e phoned
    If by accident 700 are li real voters rusted on s possible
    Then 300 are labor

    Bingo that’s your poll
    Sorry but willism u will, never convince me other wise

  11. [Arbib to Assistant Treasurer,]

    Crappy but it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s the kind of role powerbrokers are built for. Influential and well paid but not in the public’s eye. And yes, Rudd would be making similar appointments, as would any Coalition leader.

    And, this exists in every parliamentary democracy… or even executive democracy. Really, anywhere with political parties…

  13. I can see the merit in promoting Shorten and Nicola, but Arbib? You’ve got to be kidding – I’m afraid that one smacks of Julia rewarding one of her principal backers.

  17. Yes, it smells like the Ruddites are being punished: Carr getting the boot altogether, Bowen being tied to Immigration etc.

  20. [Why do u lot believe polls]

    Because they are by far the best indication of what is happening.

    Why would you not believe them, Mysay?

  23. [Yes, Foreign Affairs, really the third highest position.]

    Except that Rudd really doesn’t have that much power in this administration anymore.

  24. [my say
    Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
    Why do u lot believe polls

    Ok. Now 1000 people, ar e phoned
    If by accident 700 are li real voters rusted on s possible
    Then 300 are labor

    Bingo that’s your poll
    Sorry but willism u will, never convince me other wise]

    My say:

    How do I put this? You clearly havent a clue about random selection and statistics of chance.

    Thats the whole point about sample sizes and margins of error, its all about the likelihood of picking 700 liberals out of 1000. Unless the pollster was standing outside Menzies House with a clipboard that aint gonna happen by random polling methods (well, perhaps once in a million years but certainly not 35 times in 5 months!)

  27. On my list of cabinet positions, I would add that labour and industrial relations are important in Australia’s system and would probably warrant a seat in the “upper echelon” too.

  28. Does Arbib have the ability, or based on his performance, does he deserve to be Assistant Treasurer ahead of someone else?

    I doubt it!

    The culture must change.

  30. Steve its who u ask on the day
    Thsts just sensible
    If yo are gold calling u dount know before u call who these people vote for

    Its the luck or the draw,

    Think about it

  32. Putting Arbib into Assistant Treasurer is probably a good move. Lots of donkey work in that job and almost no capacity for independent action or getting the government into trouble.

  33. [Arbib? You’ve got to be kidding – I’m afraid that one smacks of Julia rewarding one of her principal backers.]

    That’s probably the worst thing she could have done!

    Rudd gave him a dream run through to the ministry and look what Arbib did to thank him!

    Arbib probably now thinks that no matter what he does, it will always turn up roses for him!

    I know what I would have done to him. he’d have a permanent squeaky voice afterwards! 😉

  34. “When Ms Gillard told Mr Garrett and Mr McClelland she wanted them to resign from cabinet to pave the way for new blood, Mr Garrett threatened to resign from parliament. Mr McClelland also refused to step aside. The pair were backed by other NSW ministers.”

  35. TLM
    The article linked says Bowen refused a change, wanting to stay in Immi to “finish the job”, and I assume the Ruddites would be punished. It is live or die that close to the throne.

  37. [almost no capacity for independent action or getting the government into trouble. ]

    Or benefiting it either. That would suit Arbib just fine, I reckon.

    What a stand-out Sports Minister he hasn’t been!

  38. [Would Labor really have feared a byelection in Kingsford Smith?]

    Labor would almost certainly lose a byelection in Kingsford Smith held now. (IMO).

  39. General public don’t know names
    If u went out in to in to pitt st, tomorrow and ask who the gov, sports minister is
    I bet they wouldn’t know there was one,

    The just hear the rot, and no substance
    And that’s not labors fault

  40. [Its the luck or the draw,

    Think about it]

    Not true Mysay check out the last poll before the next Federal election and you will find they are pretty well spot on. The Coalition go up a bit when boats arrive Labor goes up a bit when interest rates go down and overall the public get it pretty right.

  42. [Except that Rudd really doesn’t have that much power in this administration anymore.]

    Rubbish. He has had plenty of power and influence as FM. Just because the PM went over his head on a few policy decisions (which the PM has the power to do and PMs regularly do – including one who was notorious for doing it, one Kevin Rudd) doesn’t mean he is powerless.

  46. Really not sure this is a smart reshuffle by Julia, the MSM will perceive her as rewarding those who got her into the top job and firming up her power base against any threat from Rudd & his supporters.

  49. Arbib’s never achieved anything noteworthy in terms of policy – the man’s only where he is because of his political headkicking skills.
    It’s a blow to Labor Party reform that such a dinosaur like him gets promoted.

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