Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,584 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. madcyril;

    Last night I went to our local TAFE branch’s music concert, where the music students put on their annual concert to showcase their [ahem] ‘talent’.

    One ‘band’ had a groupie ‘dancer’ hanging off to one side, dancing like crap and looking like a total pillock. The bloke sat next to me at the bar, upon seeing my horror at this groupie leaned over and asked me if I knew who Beck? from the Happy Mondays was. I said no, but instantly thought of you, because the link from your screen name goes to a Happy Mondays song

  2. Dee,
    I want to seem them demolished, front and centre, in slo-mo, on loop, for everyone to see, over and over. Nothing but the best for the three stooges.

  3. [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    Nick Sherry for Andrew Leigh. Give him a small portfolio to start off with #fantasyreshuffle #auspol]

  4. My Say
    [My oh made the observation that really its never changed
    Over the years, re the media,
    But i am not sure re the abc,]
    Yes, they have been biased but I think they have become very cocky & blatant.
    Especially so in publishing articles they know either have no factual basis or the facts have been skewed to support the narrative. There is no fear of a ruined career for misconduct because there is no accountability.
    Then the advent of the celebrity journo.

  5. Thank you doyley

    May be its just me tonight
    Last week I felt fine, very optimistic, still feel that way just impatient.
    Still have to make baby Georges christmas quilt ,finish my last year quilt
    George need s some tiny little overall s the cushions I made for the girls need buttons,

    I would like to make myself a dress fir christmas day,
    And i am siiting here being s misery guts,

  6. my say:

    Don’t feel despondent or impatient. We’re in the governing zone now, which is always boring, hence journos turn their attention to other things like Ruddstoration.

    Leave the coalition to carry on with their stunts like playing dress-ups in bomb suits or hard hats and kissing fish. Let’s see where things are this time next year.

  7. Clarification: it’s not that it’s boring, just that it doesn’t sell papers/viewers/listeners and therefore isn’t bothered with by the press gallery.

  8. Dee is tne celeb , juno , the last hurah,

    May be they see the writing on the wall ,why do we need them twitter get in first
    face book
    Once u had to wait for the morning paper, now that’s has been news
    I doubt the young one s would realize this yet
    Junos, talking and interviewing themselves may be a symptom of worry about their future


  9. Finns, we need to “posterise” your BSONs – it would be great if collectively we can “fill in the gaps” so to speak, with respects to comparison numbers. For example, where you might say “lowest” or “highest” it would be great to have a couple of numbers from the higher/lower segments as comparisons, and as a way to represent as charts/images, etc. Would be an awesome graphic when finished 🙂

    The one I built using Poss’s numbers has those numbers as calculations behind each graphic – it means when the data is updated, I can produce the poster within a few minutes of updating some figures into the backend.

  10. Dee he is lovely
    put o.n 500 grams
    Now on normal formula, and trying to get him to 4 hourly feeds was 2 hourly now 3
    Daughter goes to oediatric clinic 3 times a week pediatrician fortnighly
    The oxygen levels checked,
    He is a good colour, and all his levels are good sucking well
    So the little heart is good , but may need the stunt done again in the new

  11. madcyril:

    Wireless is shitty atm. Have bookmarked and will watch when it’s working a bit better. But from your description sounds just like this guy last night!

  12. Outsider
    I like ricadonna, any one else tried that, I am naught y because its not tas, or aust wi
    But gosh its nice, sweet though

  13. Thanks connie, yes cheered up now,
    Connie, thank you for helping me out a few weeks ago,
    Dee how is your floor boards

    O and how was the wedding

  14. My Say
    That is good news about bubs. Bet he gets nursed a lot by nana. 🙂
    My daughter had her wedding on the 25 November.
    Without bias 😉 she was absolutely gorgeous. Aside from her sister, she was the most beautiful bride I had ever seen.
    When she walked into the venue everyones jaws dropped.

  15. Dee that bought tears to my eyes , what a glorious picture u painted,
    I do wish our eldest could find a soul mate, I worry about he being lonely, says she is happy though

  16. Leroy @ 4573
    Hmmm this OPI stuff leaves me feeling a little conflicted.

    My joke about the Office of Police Integrity used to be “Have they found any yet?”

    It seems that with the big stuff they were pretty good but lower down the chain, with less high profile complaints, they were woeful, with the most incurious investigators I have ever encountered. Incapable of following a bleeding elephant through snow.

  17. My Say
    [I do wish our eldest could find a soul mate, I worry about he being lonely, says she is happy though]
    Give it time My Say!
    Don’t fret.
    This was my eldest daughters wedding.
    Our grandsons are from the youngest.

    Mediawatch reports some strange behaviour by the Australian in regard to the Overland affair and it’s angst with the Office of Police Integrity. Chris Mitchell apparently berated the ABC for giving any airtime to former OPI Director Micheal Strong.

    …That morning, ABC Radio 774’s morning host Jon Faine interviewed Michael Strong again. He was even more outspoken about The Australian than he’s been before, denouncing their “campaign to discredit this organisation” with “sensationalist, unbalanced articles”…

    …””Faine should know better than to give this rogue such a platform.”— Crikey, 8 December, 2011″… (Strong)

    So the Editor-in-Chief of our only national broadsheet thinks that the ABC should not be giving air time to the outgoing Director of the Office of Police Integrity, a former County Court judge, because he is “this rogue” and his organisation, in Mr Mitchell’s opinion, is “corrupt”.

    Those whom Mr Mitchell disapproves of, it seems, don’t even have the right to express their views on the ABC.

    And lest you think that Chris Mitchell was speaking in anger, and soon thought the better of his outburst, his bizarre remarks were repeated twice in today’s Australian – in this story by Chip Le Grand, and in the Cut and Paste column.

    So the Editor in Chief of the Australian is publicly telling the ABC what to do? Why am I not shocked?

  19. So, with an interest rate cut, and rates much lower than when Howard lost office (and his seat- unnecessary added fact but i just like saying it), and Abbott has the gall to talk about the govt putting UPWARD pressure on rates?

    Black is white with Abbott.

    And the MSM say yes Mr Abbott, whatever you say Mr Abbott

  20. bemused

    If a tax is imposed on imported goods, then steps have to be taken to make sure that it isn’t avoided.

    At present, customs randomly opens parcels to make sure the contents match the description and there isn’t anything else in the package.

    That’s a fairly straightforward exercise, but one which costs money.

    To impose a tax on imported goods, Customs need to now take several more steps beyond opening the parcel and checking what’s in there.

    They would now also have to make some assessment as to whether the goods enclosed were correctly valued – that is, that the buyer and seller hadn’t come to an arrangement to undervalue the goods in order to avoid paying the tax.

    They would also need some method of tracking parcels going to the same buyer – very easy to avoid the tax otherwise, by splitting a purchase into several small purchases (e.g. buying enough ‘parts’ separately then putting them together to make an item of taxable worth).

    As is often the case, it’s the steps you have to take to ensure that a tax isn’t being avoided which cost the money.

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