GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
bk
solly, dont know how that would be
🙁
btw
the address is
138 Point Cartwright Road, Buddina Qld 4575
don’t think wiliam is around, or he would of done over Morgan
So u can discuss romance till your hearts content
btw
george did this last night
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/6476463631/sizes/m/in/photostream/
cracker of a representation
even if the colours could do with some work
😉
I don’t think of William as “a round”; more like a bit of carbon that has been under a lot of pressure for yonks.
gusface,
The pdf is miles better.
Gus
Traffic cameras
http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Traffic-cameras-by-location.aspx
but they wouldn’t show his office if there was one nearby, though.
BW, if you are about:
[RAWAGEDE, Indonesia (AFP. 9/12) – The Dutch government formally apologised on Friday to the families of victims of a 1947 massacre on Indonesia’s Java island, on the 64th anniversary of the executions by its colonial army. Dutch troops swooped into a village in the town of Rawagede during Indonesia’s fight for independence and executed men and boys as their families and neighbours looked on.
Dutch officials say 150 people were killed, but a support group and the local community say the death toll was 431. In this context and on behalf of the Dutch government, I apologise for the tragedy that took place in Rawagede on the 9th of December, 1947,’ the Netherlands ambassador to Indonesia Tjeerd de Zwaan said. ]
Another report also mentioned 20,000 Euros compensation for each family
Smaug @ 4397
[My first election was also ’83 and I also made the mistake of voting Fraser, my excuse was a combination of political disinterest (at 18 my interests were directed at girls and grog) and as a young soldier I was advised (unofficially of course) that my best interests would always lie with the Liberals. Even a cursory assessment of Peacock and Howard disabused me of that notion and I have never found any reason to vote Liberal since.]
What???? Political indoctrination in the military?
Yep, was subjected to the same myself, but it had exactly the opposite effect.
I used to leave a copy of Mao’s ‘Little Red Book’ on my bedside locker for inspections. 😀
I was expecting a comment from the management but was never rewarded with one. 🙁
I really hope this sort of thing is not going on in the military.
I think things have improved a lot since my days.
Suffice to say, my first vote was in 1969 for Dr Jim Cairns.
My Say: as always Morgan’s headline number is based on respondent allocated preferences. The last election method produces a better number for Labor.
The survey covered 1900 respondents over the past 2 weeks.
On primary votes, the Coalition was up 1, Labor was unchanged, and the Greens were down 2.
The Morgan “last election” method 2PP number seems to be consistently the best polling outcome for Labor, so a move back to 53/47 (from 51.5/48.5 two weeks ago) is a bit disheartening.
Still, if by Christmas, the polls were to settle on an average of 53/47, I guess I would be pretty happy with that as a base for improvement in 2012. But the Government still has a lot of hard work to do, and whether we like it or not, the msm narrative is that Labor just can’t get its message across, and the polls back that conclusion up.
The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has reported, with dissenting reports from Bronwyn Bishop and Lee Rhiannon. How apt. 😆
rua,
Did they have one page each with one huge word on it, ‘NO’?
Outsider
Could we perhaps allow for Moe
What ever that is
Surely the reason we cannot get our message out is because its not being told
Not because labor is sitting by and doing nothing
Hopefully next year the abc will find its self again
And who knows, may not as many papers .
There’s no way Harry should be rewarded with a Ministry. He has had his day in the sun. He’s retiring at the next election, so why bother?
There is so much talent on the backbench, and quite a few on the frontbench who should be turfed.
Dreyfus QC for Attorney-General
Shorten Minister for Finance
Combet Minister for Industrial Relations
Laura Tingle in today’s Fin Review suggested Penny Wong wants to be Attorney General
feeney
And what happens to Penny Wong?
So, come the 25th, there’ll be pressies for various government members?
What’ll be in the stockings for coalition members: a bottle of bitters for each?
Sadly I think the last poll might have been the MOE poll!
Of course Labor has done much over the past 12 months to be proud of. But if its sits back waiting for the msm to change its tune, then I fear nothing much will change, whatever the achievements might be. I don’t have the asnwers, but whatever Labor’s media strategy might be, it isn’t working at the moment.
I also suspect the ongoing Rudd/Gillard tension will continue to sap the energy of the Government and detract from its achievements. Short of Kevin Rudd retiring to the backbench and saying nothing in oublic until he retires at the next election, I cannot see how that distraction can be eliminated.
I note that one of the most vocal critics of the Government’s capacity to communicate its message is Bernard Keane in the Crikey Daily Email – I don’t really count Crikey as part of the MSM, and we (on the Labor side) ignore the views of commentators such as Keane at our peril.
Maybe I am just feeling a bit pessimistic after a long week! But the Government remains well behind in the polls, by any measure, and its challenge is to work out a way to seize the narrative in a way that overcomes the msm bias. That is not easy to do – but it hasn’t happened as yet.
Maybe some of our PB energies should be directed at how Labor can better connect with the elctorate?
Choke on your dinner stuff:
http://tinyurl.com/dxc2cnz
Sophie Mirabella is the Shadow Minister for Science – and this is her opinion of the Ballieu government’s ‘grazing for scientific purposes’ farce –
[ They have commissioned a scientific trial and the results of that trial show that there is a very good case to return cattle to the High Country. The science shows that strategic cattle grazing can play a significant role in reducing the fuel load and reduce the severity of bushfires.]
Here’s one article about that scientific trial:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/say-no-to-policy-cowboys-20111019-1m80w.html
[
Although last summer’s trial was only ever intended to provide preliminary information to help with the design of a longer five-year study, the report highlights what is surely one of the most embarrassingly bad pieces of public policy in recent memory]
[
The study also reveals that the state government failed to conduct field studies to assess the trial until April 30 – weeks after cattle had already left the park. By then, as the report makes clear, the consultant researchers were hampered by the early onset of bad weather and the remoteness of the trial sites.
The findings include the obvious revelations that cattle don’t like steep areas occupied by unpalatable shrubs and that the damage that cattle cause is most visible in wet areas. None of this has provided any new information on whether cattle grazing might cut the risk of bushfires.]
[
To call the first part of the trial ”scientific” represents an insult to science. The study at best contained belated and inconclusive observations. The government would arguably have been better off if it had simply come clean and admitted it reintroduced cattle because it wanted to help the Nationals by rewarding a small but influential lobby group with a free entitlement to grazing land.
If the trial had genuinely been about preventing bushfires, it could have been conducted in more suitable locations outside the park. Presumably, the government would have also invited the scientists who have worked for decades on Victoria’s alpine ecology to be involved. Yet it has done none of these things. Why? Because it was never interested in the science.]
For anyone connected with science – let alone a potential Minister – to say that the trial is proof that ‘cattle grazing reduces blazing’ is an insult to the discipline.
But if you really want a laugh:
[Member for Indi, Sophie Mirabella MP said that the Victorian Government was elected with a mandate to return cattlemen to the High Country and Minister Burke has a responsibility to put bushfire safety ahead of politics.]
Gus, PDF here:
http://tinyurl.com/89q8w5o
BK, you were wrong about A2 size… try A1 size!!
poroti @ 4477
[Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten says the Government will set up a taskforce, the Retail Council of Australia, to look at the situation.
“All the experts so far, other than some of the large retailers, have indicated to us that they cannot see a way at the moment of collecting GST on items underneath $1,000 without paying more to collect it than the money that’s actually raised,” he said.
“Something as important as the retail industry needs all the players around the same table,” he said.
Mr Shorten says a threshold of $100 would cost $1.2 billion to collect $500 million worth of tax.]
Nothing short of amazing!
Yet the Post Office can collect underpaid postage of quite small amounts.
My interpretation: “My minions have been too damn lazy, stupid and incompetent to devise an effective system for processing GST on overseas transactions.”
I benefit from no GST on overseas transactions but for the life of me cannot see why it should be that way.
Back from dysart
and the upping of tax on drinks to combat idiots has died a respectful death,
all is well in the world
Outsider
The government has been the target of the media since 2007. I am a little perplexed as to why, after copping a beating over several years from the media that the ALP have not come up with alternative ways to communicate with the public negating MSM.
[But the Government remains well behind in the polls, by any measure, and its challenge is to work out a way to seize the narrative in a way that overcomes the msm bias]
Yet this is precisely what the govt has done! Twelve months ago the media narrative was that an election would/could be held any time in the coming year. And yet here we are in Dec 2011, and the prevailing ‘narrative’ is that the govt will go full term. Gillard Labor did that by putting their shoulders to the wheel and getting hard stuff through parliament.
We are just over a year out from an election. It is usually (or should be) the time when govts get on with things. In this sense polls don’t matter; racking up achievements OTOH does. Pity the coalition who are burdened with a leader who has no policy nous, no competence for policy development, and hence no capacity to match the govt as it continues to rack up its policy achievements.
BK
If Tingle is accurate, apparently Penny Wong wanted to be AG after the last election but the PM stuck with McClelland.
Dee – you have expressed my point better than I did!
Terrific doco on Discovery 2 about Japan March Earthquake & Tsunami
[My interpretation: “My minions have been too damn lazy, stupid and incompetent to devise an effective system for processing GST on overseas transactions.”]
Wrong, every time an inquiry has looked into GST on low value imports it has reported it costs too much. Howard has two inquiries from memory Rudd-Gillard 3. All say the same thing.
Dee I think it will only be things that take place I n. The media that will change that
I am hoping for leadership from the new head of tht abc
To just be exactly on charter, that’s all we all want.
But things we don’t know about yet will happen may be , I feel bit fed up tonight
but with 23 months to go we should not
my oh says stop thinking about things u have no control about,
But i think the people will turn away from abbott
we have seen julia, go ahead of abbott now,
May be we would just of liked it for christmas,
Confessions
[Pity the coalition who are burdened with a leader who has no policy nous, no competence for policy development, and hence no capacity to match the govt as it continues to rack up its policy achievements.]
How long ago did Sloppy & Robb make the announcement to the media that they were going to release 40+ policies within the next two days?
Nothing, absolutely zero was announced!
But, it is more than likely they will release populist vote buying policies in the run up to the next election with no scrutiny & full of bulldust.
The ALP cannot afford to wait until they go into election mode.
Dee I don’t know the alternative,
Perhaps. More twitter,
Face book, gradually over time I think this will be. The norm
It may. Happen quicker than we think i hope so
My Say – I think you and I are thinking much the same thoughts tonight…
Christmas 2012 needs to be our focus!
To me its pretty simple: Tony Abbott is disgusting, Julia Gillard is not.
So dee do u mean we have to be releasing good policies all the time
not just at election time
Wasn’t quite sure about your last sentance
My Say
[my oh says stop thinking about things u have no control about,
But i think the people will turn away from abbott
we have seen julia, go ahead of abbott now,]
My OH says the same thing, then proceeds to have a solitary screaming match with the tv.
Wish he would blog on PBer.
He remembers everything political much like my father.
[Laura Tingle in today’s Fin Review suggested Penny Wong wants to be Attorney General]
I’ll accept that. Would be good. A solid performer.
[
Maybe I am just feeling a bit pessimistic after a long week! But the Government remains well behind in the polls, by any measure, and its challenge is to work out a way to seize the narrative in a way that overcomes the msm bias. That is not easy to do – but it hasn’t happened as yet.
]
Outsider
I liked Mumble’s take on “Narratives” the other week
[
Many people complain that this Labor government needs something called a “narrative”. The diagnosis was first made in Kevin Rudd’s early months in office and continues to this day. They say it lacks a story or theme that encapsulates what it’s about. Paul Keating puts it down to a deficit in “political skilling”.
I reckon the narrative shtick is largely hindsight-based. The Hawke-Keating governments get a good bipartisan rap these days with Julia Gillard insisting she’s a reformer just like them and Tony Abbott maintaining she’s not up to tying their bootlaces. But that’s based on a current settled history about those years that’s different to both what perceptions were at the time and the settled history for a while afterwards.
]
….
[
If a theme is needed it is: we’re the government, we set the terms of the debate and we govern. We don’t take shit from anyone.
They’ve got to mean it of course. Then from that will flow whatever “narrative” the circumstances require.
]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/narrative_schmarrative1
my say,
Cheer up !
All is ok. Just remember a few months ago the polls were around 59/41 so labor has picked up 5 points 2PP and 5 points primary. Despite all the huff and puff the coalition have gone backwards and are pretty much where they were at the last election. People are parking with ” others ” at the moment just waiting to come back home.
People are in Santa mode now. Labor is still standing and 2012 will be the year of sell.
Keep the faith.
I also think that the Government’s problem is more than Twitter or Facebook usage.
It has not been able to sustain a consistent attack on the Opposition’s woeful economic credentials. I would like to see Anthony Albanese do a monthly update on Hockey’s black hole – get people to really think about what clueless clowns Abbott and Hockey really are. Slow news Sundays would be the ideal time for those updates – 20 months in a row, the hole just gets bigger and bigger, and perceptions start to build.
I guess that’s what I am thinking about in building a narrative – sustained pressure over a long period leading into the next election campaign.
Dee:
Robb told us we’d see 40 policies by the 1st of July. It is now the 9th December and we’ve barely seen one policy let alone 40.
Twelve months ago Abbott was making confident proclamations that he’d be in the Lodge by christmas. It is noteworthy that Abbott no longer makes such proclamations, publicly at least.
Labor is going as well as could be expected given the circumstances.
My Say
[So dee do u mean we have to be releasing good policies all the time
not just at election time
Wasn’t quite sure about your last sentance]
No, just saying that we can’t wait til the lead up to the election to sell the policies.
It won’t be enough time to turn perceptions around.
george
The A1 is a magnificent effort. Every journo and pollie should be given a copy.
BTW the Adelaide chapter has not forgotten your kind offer. I’m just in the process of seeking permissions from those attending.
[It has not been able to sustain a consistent attack on the Opposition’s woeful economic credentials.]
Swan and Wong have raised the Hockey/Robb black hole at every opportunity – go back and read their presser transcripts.
The problem is the msm runs dead on anything that gives the lie to the meme that the coalition are ‘superior economic managers’. Try and find any reporting on the Hogwarts pair fined for breach of conduct, and the ‘agreeemtent’ between Hogwarts and the Liberals wrt ‘auditing’ their costings.
Finns
Tip of the iceberg, IMHO.
Outsider I believe so
We are getting ahead of ourselves,
Look back on last year, I remember on poll that had us 23 behind, I had an email,
From a friend, who said how despondent she felt we would never catch up
Well nearly have, and I bet labors internal polling is good in just have thst feeling
‘If you average out thevladt few polls I think outsider you put the figure out there above
,
Now on the other hand, we should be pleased to not be way in front , and to fall behind
The nasties perceived , are behind us,
Dental schemes , and other goodies may come along , australians love things, to do with health
‘So I am sure j g. Has things in mind , I trust her to get on with things,
I think the pokie thing is popular
And the thing with the poor father getting involved, will in my opinion galvanize public opinion in the positive,
Talking about communicating, the UK Red Cross are using their noggin, a First Aid app.
http://www.redcross.org.uk/What-we-do/First-aid/Mobile-app
Finns, btw
Zwaan = Swan
Those big birds are having a busy time lately.
ruawake @ 4526
[Wrong, every time an inquiry has looked into GST on low value imports it has reported it costs too much. Howard has two inquiries from memory Rudd-Gillard 3. All say the same thing.]
Australia Post can process all sorts of transactions economically.
This one should be dead easy.
The like so DHL and other couriers too.
I just don’t buy it. Sorry.
Outsider
The vicious streak in me wants to see Rabbott, Sloppy, Pyne in particular absolutely demolished.
I want it yesterday! 😀
My oh made the observation that really its never changed
Over the years, re the media,
But i am not sure re the abc,
Dee, we will see it, we just have to be patient,
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, December 9, 2011 at 7:44 pm | Permalink
Wayne Swan didn’t quite skip into the Parliament House blue room for a press conference on the national accounts. But it was close. “You’re actually on time!” a journalist greeted him.
Well why wouldn’t I be with this (choke) set of numbers?!” responded Swan.
No, he wasn’t going to call them a beautiful set of numbers. No sir.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/it_not_all_gloom_in_wayne_world_bNLMwCbaUz415dec1PQg4J
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@SwannyDPM Swannie, it’s OK. You can call them A Beautiful Set of Numbers – http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/12/05/newspoll-54-46-to-coalition-4/comment-page-70/#comment-1108163
21 seconds ago]
But Laura Tingle included the “beautiful” in her sentence as I said this morning re congratulations
Talking about Apps, for all those times when you want to dispute some rw crud but just can’t recall the appropriate figures or facts, can some of the IT-smart bods on PB do a Progressives App. When some dill claims interest rates, debt, lawns are always lower, greener, happier under the fibs, a nice graph would be good.