Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,584 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  6. Shanahan’s article

    [
    Newspoll shows Tony Abbott’s support at lowest level as leader

    TONY Abbott’s personal voter support has dropped to its lowest level since he became Opposition Leader two years ago and Julia Gillard and her government are at their highest standing in six months.

    As the parliamentary and political year draws to a close with the end of the ALP national conference, voter satisfaction with the Leader of the Opposition has fallen to its lowest level since he took over from Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader in December 2009 and Ms Gillard has extended her lead over him as preferred prime minister
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-support-at-lowest-level-as-leader/story-fn59niix-1226213680136

  7. Dio
    I tried turning them from base 4 to base 10 but that hasn’t helped.
    The visual pattern does not seem to hold any clues.

  10. Puff, it’s a pattern in describing (in numbers) what you see:

    13 is ONE 1, and ONE THREE – so in numbers: 1113
    1113 is THREE 1’s and ONE 3 – so in numbers: 3113
    3113 is ONE 3, TWO 1’s and ONE 3 – so in numbers: 132113
    etc

  14. [i would never have got that!]

    I find if you read out the numbers out loud, that sometimes prompts the answer. Initially I was thinking an addition/minus combination, but then when I read out loud “one one one three” I thought, “oh, that’s describing the previous set of numbers”

  16. Tony Abbott’s worst net approval rating yet (minus 24); Gillard’s net approval rating (minus 20) better than Abbott’s for the first time since the start of April; Gillard’s approval rating likewise the highest since the start of April.

  18. Progress! And makes it a little harder to massage the usual BAD POLL stories over the summer. Though I’m sure our friends in the punditry will try their best, unless they really want Abbott gone. 😉

  28. Of course, my post in 17 was just a bit of cheekiness. This is an ok result considering the kind of year they’ve had.

    Just a couple of months ago, Gillard was on borrowed time. Now she probably has a bit more breathing room (but a lot of work to go).

    Abbott, OTOH, even Dennis is spinning against you, mate. Australia doesn’t like you. Your support is that of middle voter protest. Even your party ranks are getting weary of you and your tactics. It is now you who is heading down the terminal road. Especially if the polls narrow further.

  29. Phil Coorey apparently has the sealed section of the post election review by Labor

    [
    ALP post-mortem damns Rudd

    A SECRET Labor Party report has criticised the government led by Kevin Rudd as lacking purpose and being driven by spin and implies that the former prime minister or his supporters were behind the leaks that almost destroyed Julia Gillard’s election campaign.

    It says the leakers ”should be condemned by the party”.

    The report is the so-called sealed section of the 2010 election review conducted by party elders John Faulkner, Steve Bracks and Bob Carr and was never meant to be made public.

    Obtained by the Herald, the report’s findings will inflame tensions between Mr Rudd and Julia Gillard, which were on display throughout the three-day ALP national conference in Sydney which finished yesterday.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/alp-postmortem-damns-rudd-20111204-1odj8.html#ixzz1fZcHytHL

  32. [Phil Coorey apparently has the sealed section of the post election review by Labor]

    Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.

  37. You know you want me to say it. Have another look. The lady’s ‘interesting’ bit is a dolphin tail. Now have good look, I know its ahem tough, but this is research after all. There are nine dolphins.

  38. [Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.]

    Hacking into NORAD’s computer and simulating a nuclear attack?

  39. Puff, the Magic Dragon,

    [scorps,
    sigh. ]

    Yeah, I know, a total lost cause. 😉

    But I foundm if I turn it upside down & close one eye (the good one) I can actually see both the dolphins & the nudies! 😉

    Do I get a bonus for that! lol

  40. [
    Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.
    ]

    I can just see senior party officials breaking out their Tabletop wargaming equipment and running some simulations!

  41. Puff,

    [I know its ahem tough, but this is research after all. There are nine dolphins. ]

    Maybe I might make a good research subject for your Phd! 😉

  42. [Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”. ]

    I think the electors of Lindsay have suffered enough by now! 😉

  43. While you computer geeks and engineering bods were learning to crunch numbers, this is what the psych students were up to.

  44. My problem with this report is it pretty much says what we already know but the article chooses to highlight the fact that a supporter of Rudd was responsible for the leaks (no shit, Sherlock) and imply that this top secret document is about condemning Rudd.

    What it’s really about is how the government manages itself in terms of public perception and confidence in policy.

  50. Carey Moore,

    [My problem with this report is it pretty much says what we already know but the article chooses to highlight the fact that a supporter of Rudd was responsible for the leaks (no shit, Sherlock) and imply that this top secret document is about condemning Rudd. ]

    Once BW & Fess get to hear of this it might be advisable to find something else to do for a couple of days! 😉

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