Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,584 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. [How long have you been divorced]

    Hi Dee

    It has been 10 years since I finally got the guts to leave. I left with the suitcase I had and went back to my parents. I have had a few fleeting romances since, but have never met anybody special although I have never really tried that hard before.

    I got married when I was 22 so Centre and Scarpat I am 47.

  6. [WAS HIS NAME BARNYARD]

    Gus

    I did think of him, but he was too old. Thanks very much for the other tips. My sister was an expert on this sort of thing but she sadly passed away last year.

  9. [I also made the mistake of voting Fraser, my excuse was a combination of political disinterest (at 18 my interests were directed at girls and grog) and as a young soldier I was advised (unofficially of course) that my best interests would always lie with the Liberals.]

    Smaug,

    It was a terrible time. In hindsight, it’s probably not a good idea to brainwash young minds.

  12. Today’s Morgan Face to Face is a little depressing.

    It shows a recovery of coalition support to 55.5/44.5 (up from 54.5/45.5 last time) using the respondent allocated preferences.

    Using the “preferences at the last election” method, the Coalition now leads 53/47 (up from 51.5/48.5 last time).

    Not the best start to my weekend. But I live in hope of what’s to come in 2012! I think we all know there’s a long way to go….

  13. [Dee I am approaching my twilight years, heading for the big ( 5 0]

    centre

    We could have 50 year old celebrations two years in a row?

  14. [Was there no cctv at Slipper’s electoral office?]

    Dan Murphys next door may have caught Alex Somlyay with a spray can he bought from Marrochydore Bunnings?

  17. Am I haveing second thoughts, re. Mr shorten. he didnt say yes he did not say no re tax on the internet
    For overseas purchases, abc news
    the poms is 25 percent

    Now that would be very unpopular, but on the other hand may be a fact of life,
    But not happy, but I could live with 5 percent

  20. I must commend Slippery he did a good job changing the photo in his window. Last week it still said LNP he changed it to MP using the orignal P.

  21. BB
    I showed your post at 4297 to my daughter who was driving our car that was written off several months ago. It brought tears to her eyes -and then to mine.
    Your short paragraph about the morgue was like a sledgehammer. That poor, beautiful young girl.
    In Adelaide – I think it was Diog who brought it to our attention – a lawyer Eugene McGee, a real charmer, has got off virtually scot free after killing a guy on a bike, leaving the scene, hiding at his brother’s and drinking spirits and then fronting up to a police station next morning.
    The prick had it all worked out.
    Senator X said this morning that he will never, ever let it go. He is going to chase this excuse for a human being.

  24. [there are a few near 50′s on PB

    [we iz the young uns]

    Gus

    Couldn’t agree more

    My fiftieth is in May 2014 and everyone is invited. Hopefully I am still around.

  26. Ah, dont you think this love fest between:

    Centre & Gayle :kiss:

    Dolphin & Horsey :kiss:

    are so much better than the usual evening biffos on PB.

    Let the 1000 romances bloom

  27. my say

    [Mr Shorten says a threshold of $100 would cost $1.2 billion to collect $500 million worth of tax.]

    Re the GST on goods worth less than $1000 bought on the internet this from the ABC today says it all.

    [Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten says the Government will set up a taskforce, the Retail Council of Australia, to look at the situation.

    “All the experts so far, other than some of the large retailers, have indicated to us that they cannot see a way at the moment of collecting GST on items underneath $1,000 without paying more to collect it than the money that’s actually raised,” he said.

    “Something as important as the retail industry needs all the players around the same table,” he said.

    Mr Shorten says a threshold of $100 would cost $1.2 billion to collect $500 million worth of tax.]

  28. [Roy Orbison

    Posted Friday, December 9, 2011 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    “Gayle there is a big singles Christmas Party at Burwood RSL saturday night.”

    Working for the public service in the eighties, we just about built that place. Thursday lunch usually extended from 12.30 Thursday to about 8.00pm Friday with only a few hours sleep and a work appearance on Friday morning to do the footy tips. Good times.

    Speaking of work, old Roy (who first voted for Gough in ’74, returning the favour for keeping me out of the Nashos a couple of years earlier, is weighing up two offered contracts to keep the wolf from the door. One of them involves the NBN and help is desperately needed as thing is now going absolutely full throttle. It would appear the plan is to snooker Abbott in every sense. He won’t be able to stop it or wind it back commercially. Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. Will probably not take that job, though]
    Think of that job as your patriotic duty to take??????

  30. Outsider are u sure the way Morgan show there figures
    It was 9 points the difference, which became 51 /48
    This time 11.
    Last 9 points.
    Why do your figures vary that much when only 2 points seperate both for nights

    Morgans, figures

  32. [Is Wyatt Erp old enough to buy spray paint from Bunnings?]

    No but Jarrod Bleijie’s staff are and its only a few hundred metre walk to Slippery’s.

  34. BK
    I have never met sen X but I believe he is good like that. Damn shocking affair. I hope people do not let it go.

    Sorry to hear of your smash. I had a rear-ender a couple of months ago, squashed the back of my 2000 Honda HRV. No-one hurt but I was not impressed with my fantastic little car getting dinged.

  35. [Is Wyatt Erp old enough to buy spray paint from Bunnings]

    Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but there was article in the CM the other day and he is now in charge of planting trees. All the millions of trees that will be required to go who knows where.

  36. Paroti. So thsts sounds hope full that it will not happen
    if it costs more to collect. Than the gain that would be silly

    Has any one else worked out Morgan

    2 points neither here nor there. I suppose

    But the day I see labors name first again , will be a great day.
    I l

  39. TLBD
    I am hanging out for the first PB wedding, maybe Woman’s Day would be interested in pix. Could be worth a bundle.

  41. [Wayne Swan didn’t quite skip into the Parliament House blue room for a press conference on the national accounts. But it was close. “You’re actually on time!” a journalist greeted him.

    Well why wouldn’t I be with this (choke) set of numbers?!” responded Swan.

    No, he wasn’t going to call them a beautiful set of numbers. No sir.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/it_not_all_gloom_in_wayne_world_bNLMwCbaUz415dec1PQg4J

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @SwannyDPM Swannie, it’s OK. You can call them A Beautiful Set of Numbers – http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/12/05/newspoll-54-46-to-coalition-4/comment-page-70/#comment-1108163
    21 seconds ago

  42. gayle

    [Is Wyatt Erp old enough to buy spray paint from Bunnings

    Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but there was article in the CM the other day and he is now in charge of planting trees. All the millions of trees that will be required to go who knows where.]
    Has he broken to the farming peoples in Australia’s “wheatbelt” regions ? Listened to one of the founders of Men of the Trees at a conference a few months back. He was asked about whether he was in favour of TA’s plant trees direct action thang. In his opinion it was a joke and that the only places where mass planting to meet the targets were pretty much Australia’s main agricultural regions.Especuially the wheat growing ones. There would not be alot left going by his whiteboard sums.

  45. Gus,
    This sounds interesting. I wonder if anyone has been visited by the tape-disappearment fairy ala hokey-paokey senator?

  48. poroti

    I wish I would have kept it. It was very funny. Apparently he the first of thousands of ambassadors iirc to be in charge of the tree planting exercise.

    It really is a joke, and it is so depressing that nobody in the media even questions this.

    They had a lovely picture of planting a tree, as if this was some big moment in history.

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