Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,584 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. [The Euro summit just now has failed to reach agreement.]

    not suprising and nothing will come of the summit given merkels inept leadership. merkel has a chance to save europe but she seems not to realise the critical nature of this. it is an historical moment and she cannot grasp the moment.

  3. smaug,
    After Howard, nothing the average Aussie votes for would surprise me, but the brain dead rabid lama is already LOTO.

  5. rua

    [Wrong as usual.]

    I look forward to the headlines screaming that agreement has been reached and seeing the Spi Futures jumping out of its skin.

  7. the spectator@4402

    The Euro summit just now has failed to reach agreement.

    not suprising and nothing will come of the summit given merkels inept leadership. merkel has a chance to save europe but she seems not to realise the critical nature of this. it is an historical moment and she cannot grasp the moment.

    The last European leader capable of grasping a historical moment got sent to St. Helena.

  8. [The 17 Euros will get it together. No option.]

    Plus 4 or 5 others. China will bankroll them in return for share ownership. The UK will lapse into deeper recession and their PM will resign making George Shrub Bush look competent.

  10. Hi Puff

    Thanks for helping things along. I keep getting winks and messages at the dating site. I only joined yesterday and I am already losing track of who everybody is.

  11. [The last European leader capable of grasping a historical moment got sent to St. Helena.]

    At least the little fela tried

  12. [Now, if I were Abbott, I’d use the opportunity to reshuffle my own bench and actually look at presenting an effective team, ready to govern.]
    Yeah, good luck Tone.
    It would, in your case, be like trying to play Bridge with a stripped deck.

  13. @gusface/4409,

    Nothing new with LNP, first it was Dirt Files in QLD, now dirty work with Slipper.

    Absolute thugs, I don’t think even the unions were this bad.

  14. I just thought I saw an advert that says if you take in or maybe buy your Murdochian Adelaide Advertiser you get $10 off your shopping bill at Coles? Not content with giving them away in Foodland are they bribing people to buy them, now?

  17. The Finnigans
    [There is nothing to compare to dolphin + horsey = love-hate relationships]
    Does a day ever go by when you don’t feel moved to talk about me?

    You must have missed my post fairly recently where I informed you that I don’t hate you but instead harbor no feelings towards you at all.

    I understand how difficult it is for you to suffer from unrequited love 😉

    As I haven’t disclosed my gender and have no intention to do so, you have no idea who you are loving, but then again perhaps you swing both ways 😀

  18. Centre
    [My first election for voting was in 83. I actually voted for Fraser instead of Hawk, can u believe it!]
    I’d been married for 5 years in 1983.
    For some reason Centre moi thought you were in your twilight years. 👿

  19. gayle

    funny u mention dating sites

    one of the ladies at work got her bro to go on a site, funny thing is she decided to join as a joke

    she is getting married in late jan to a bloke she met on the site

    terrific fella and such a nice match

    life is funny sometimes

    ps her bro has still to ahem dip his toe in

  20. Just back from south coast NSW tourist town. Economically, it was how depressment.

    Not a lot of holiday makers around. With high depressions centred off the south of the continent, it was very, very windy and had been so for weeks.

    We got a discount for a studio apartment right in the middle of the tourist precinct – $50 a night for the two of us. There was only one other occupant in the unit block. We heard similar stories for other blocks of self-contained tourist units and saw very few cars parked outside the units in other blocks.

    Mid-week, admittedly, but some restaurants were virtually empty. You get could easily get parking in mid-town. A lot of the shops/businesses are for sale. Real estate-wise, we were told by a real estate agent that it was a ‘buyers market’ and that there was not much movement. Some of the falls between asking price and/or last purchase price and the latest purchase price were in the order of 20-30%.

    No-one we spoke to could explain how or why we were supposed to be in a wonderful economy.

  21. Absolute thugs, I don’t think even the unions were this bad.

    true- tho both sides have form

    that said the slipper thingy just smacks of desperates doing desperate things

  23. gus

    I have heard a lot of stories tlike that. I only decided to give it a go after coming back from visiting my cousins in Bendigo. They kept saying that nobody is going to come and knock on my door so I have taken the plunge.

    I hope I end up meeting someone special, although it is a bit of novelty at the moment. I take the time to read the profiles before I dive in, but I have had some really weird messages.

    I guess you have to take the good with the bad.

  27. [gusface
    Posted Friday, December 9, 2011 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    z3n_digital Zen Digital
    Abbott’s chain gang doing the LNP dirty work on slipper RT @Taxicoast: http://bit.ly/sdyAiU #AusPol. The Abbott Street Bullies @ work again]

    Sound and fury. No doubt every littler barb will see Slipper enjoying a little bit more the chucking when the next sitting arrives. Abbott truly is an impotent little bully.

  28. [The brain dead rabid lama is already LOTO]
    I know, my biggest fear is that he will become PM. I’ve given up arguing about how useless Howard and Costello were, (how the f*ck is a 25 billion dollar surplus a good thing after selling several hundred billion dollars worth of assets, its like selling my house, going on a spending binge and crowing about have $25,000 left in the bank.
    I shudder to think, on the basis that Abbott and Hocky look up to those two as role models, what damage they’ll do. 😡

  30. [As I haven’t disclosed my gender and have no intention to do so, you have no idea who you are loving, but then again perhaps you swing both ways]

    Ha ha Horsey, i knew you also love me. It’s OK, we dolphins are bi-lingual. the more the merrier.

    Btw Horsey, i must warn you, this is the likely offspring of our union:

  33. Fergus Green is a lawyer and policy analyst specialising in climate change:
    http://inside.org.au/now-for-the-real-climate-action/
    [Yet a reform package along these lines is nowhere near the political radar of the two major parties. Now that we have overcome the trauma of the facile carbon price debate, the climate movement and the community at large must put such a package, and the vision that underpins it, on the national agenda and campaign for it vigorously – without compromise. The Australian movement for truly transformative climate action must start now.]

  35. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    EU capped the bail-out to 500B Euros. China has $3.2T in Reserves. To think in the 1800s, the Europeans were trying to carve up China.
    8 seconds ago

  37. [I am sure there are places where you can get a good background check done]

    Hi Puff

    I think I might have to. There does seem to be some genuine men on there if they are telling the truth, but some wierdos. One last night wanted me to go fruitpicking and he likes dressing up as a woman, others made me blush. I am just on the normal site for 30’s to 50’s, can’t bear to think of what is said on the adult websites.

  39. How does painting personal graffiti attacks against Slipper help in the Libs refutation that he was bullied? These guys are idiots and it just goes to confirm my opinion of the average young Liberal. There is no way it could be anyone else.

  41. The Finnigans,

    I made an exception and clicked on your link. Poroti provided the same one a while ago when the same thing was being discussed between the two of you.

    I laughed then and am laughing now 😆

  44. [It is all love love love. I have seen the tapes of youse two on your little NZ ]

    Poroti, that’s it. i have gone off Horsey, i want that girl on Horsey.

  45. “Gayle there is a big singles Christmas Party at Burwood RSL saturday night.”

    Working for the public service in the eighties, we just about built that place. Thursday lunch usually extended from 12.30 Thursday to about 8.00pm Friday with only a few hours sleep and a work appearance on Friday morning to do the footy tips. Good times.

    Speaking of work, old Roy (who first voted for Gough in ’74, returning the favour for keeping me out of the Nashos a couple of years earlier, is weighing up two offered contracts to keep the wolf from the door. One of them involves the NBN and help is desperately needed as thing is now going absolutely full throttle. It would appear the plan is to snooker Abbott in every sense. He won’t be able to stop it or wind it back commercially. Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. Will probably not take that job, though.

  48. gayle

    i neverr told u this

    get a friend to go to wherever u meet

    discretely get em to take ur dates photo

    also it pays to get as much family detail as possible

    I leave the rest to u and the internetz

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