Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,584 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 88 of 92
1 … 87 88 89 … 92

  1. [Now, if I were Abbott, I’d use the opportunity to reshuffle my own bench and actually look at presenting an effective team, ready to govern.]

    Problemis he cannot without upsetting his factional warlords, the faceless men of the Libs will shred him.

  2. [yeah pull the other]

    Yeah, Mari, fair cop. However, she was not only selling the raffle tickets, but also spinning the wheel. I won. It always pays to operate behind the lines, nuff said.

  3. [rua we still have 15 days left for shopping, it’ll be sweet!]

    I have two more pressies to buy, both for men who really do have everything they want. I guess book vouchers may have to do.

  4. gayle I will give you a clue?

    My first election for voting was in 83. I actually voted for Fraser instead of Hawk, can u believe it!

  5. [gayle

    Posted Friday, December 9, 2011 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    You are a pet, what is the R/E market like in Queensland isn’t it?.

    Mari

    It is hopeless at the moment. I wished she had of decided to go this time last year.I have been keeping an eye on Bendigo prices and as long that one doesn’t go up and the one here goes backwards, she will be alright.]
    Not easy and not getting any easier, fingrs crossed for you and your mum

  6. [I’d drop Hockey as Treasurer. I’d stick Robb in there and move Turnbull to Finance.]

    Those two turkeys (H and R) shouldn’t be in Treasury or Finance – they are stained with the black hole farce, the lie about a so-called audit and the need to find 70+ billion in savings. A completely new team is required urgently to paper over the Noalition’s torn and shredded credibility in these matters.

  8. Steve K, Hockey wears the worst of it. He will make an easy scapegoat for all the Coalition’s economic problems – especially if abetted by the media. Robb is very dry and can portray himself as the voice of reason who is needed to “clean up the Coalition’s financial policies” and prepare a platform that’s about the “cutting Labor waste” etc.

  9. Harry might be OK for Minister Assisting on deregulation and public sector superannuation but anything else would be a bit of a strain

  10. [My first election for voting was in 83. I actually voted for Fraser instead of Hawk, can u believe it!]

    Centre,

    to put it into today’s context, is it because Bob (allegedly) knifed Bill in the same way that Julia (allegedly) knifed Kevin? And another question, was the same knife used?

  11. [Scringler

    Posted Friday, December 9, 2011 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    yeah pull the other

    Yeah, Mari, fair cop. However, she was not only selling the raffle tickets, but also spinning the wheel. I won. It always pays to operate behind the lines, nuff said.]
    Yeah I think Nuff has been saidm especially about operating behind the lines

  12. [
    latikambourke Latika Bourke
    “(Robert) McClelland said that reports that he is going to retire are incorrect.” #reshuffle
    7 minutes ago
    ]

    Not sure where this comment was made

  13. [
    latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Nick Sherry’s office: ‘Min. Sherry was active in his ministerial duties at Conference and continues to be active in his ministerial duties.’
    41 seconds ago
    ]

  14. [My first election for voting was in 83. I actually voted for Fraser instead of Hawk, can u believe it!]

    Centre

    My first election to be able to vote was in 1982, but as I don’t recall there being one that year it appears 83 was my first voting year as well.

    Strike one. How could you vote for Fraser?

  15. Harry did run a Dept as Speaker.

    So I reckon he will get Sherry’s gig and move small business to the Reps. Bwuce should be crappin’ his dacks soon. 😉

  17. ruawake @4298

    “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said if the treasurer really wanted to take pressure off interest rates, he would get government spending under control.

    Hey Tony what pressure on interest rates you turnip. Did you miss the last two cuts?”

    This is absolutely outrageous and the MSM has sunk to new levels by not challenging him about the obvious inconsistency with the objective facts. Not sure what the answer is but every Government spokesperson needs to state at EVERY possible opportunity wtte ‘rates are now x below those applying when Abbott was last a Minister which represents a saving of $y per month for the average mortgage of $z.” Everytime this rubbish is repeated by Abbott the gap on ‘better to handle interest rates increases’

  18. Scarpat I knew nothing about politics. I voted for Liberal because everyone in the family voted Liberal and most of them still do. All I remember was Fraser saying that if Labor wins you will need to hide your money under your bed. To this day I still don’t know what the hell he was talking about!

    I got interested in politics because I didn’t like the fact that the bloke I voted for got beat 🙂

  21. [My first election to be able to vote was in 1982, but as I don’t recall there being one that year it appears 83 was my first voting year as well.]

    Wiper sniper. I was in the one before the one that voted Fraser in.
    The Liberal party was more like the Labor Party today. There would be no way I would ever vote for Abbott but I would still vote for Fraser.

  24. daretotread @4348,

    As they say in the classics “I have no idea ” !

    The PM does not mind a bit of a surprise from left field so Dreyfuss to AG !

    If not and Roxon goes to AG then Bowen to Health but the question then arises as to who gets the poison chalice of Immigration ?

    And on it goes .

  32. [Gayle there is a big singles Christmas Party at Burwood RSL saturday night]

    Centre, sorry I was distracted on the dating on the dating site. I had two messages. It is starting to get a bit difficult going between the two.

    I think you live in Sydney is that right? I am in Brisbane at the moment and I can’t make it there unfortunately.

  34. @ruawake #4379 – I forgot to mention their dogs.

    I actually think that the Libs are that bad that if Labor holds their nerve amd survives that the Libs are unlikely to win the next – it needs to be strung out, however.

  35. puffy join in the fun, the more the merrier 😆

    Hey I think I will support gay marriage to get the number extended from the current two 😈

  36. [Having said that, feel free to tell me to go and mind my own fucking business]

    Danny, we call the Coal Seam Gas business, the frucking business 😆

  38. [gayle + centre = PB romance?]

    puufffyyyyy, 😛 😛

    There is nothing to compare to dolphin + horsey = love-hate relationships

  39. Centre@4368:

    All I remember was Fraser saying that if Labor wins you will need to hide your money under your bed.

    Then I guess you remember Hawkie’s rejoinder:

    “you can’t keep your money under the bed because that’s where the Commies are!”

    😀 :devil:

  40. [Gayle yes I am in Sydney Australia’s no.1 city.]

    Gosh, I haven’t been to Sydney since my honeymoon. You would have enjoyed it. We went to every horse race meeting, every trotting meeting and every greyhound meeting. Forget about the romance, I should have seen the writing on the wall then.

    I could also catch an early flight on Saturday morning, then I would have to find somewhere to stay.

  42. Don, only vagely.

    Gayle, race meetings are only good if you win. Yep if there is no romance in the honeymoon, forget it. And gays still want in 😆

  43. I could also catch an early flight on Saturday morning, then I would have to find somewhere to stay.

    Centre,
    that is not exactly a no. 😀

  47. [My first election for voting was in 83. I actually voted for Fraser instead of Hawk, can u believe it!
    ]
    My first election was also ’83 and I also made the mistake of voting Fraser, my excuse was a combination of political disinterest (at 18 my interests were directed at girls and grog) and as a young soldier I was advised (unofficially of course) that my best interests would always lie with the Liberals. Even a cursory assessment of Peacock and Howard disabused me of that notion and I have never found any reason to vote Liberal since.

    My opinion of the electorates ability to think rationally took a nosedive in ’96, dropped further in ’98 and pretty much crashed and burnt in 2001 to such an extent that I fully expect the average Aussie would vote for a rabid, brain dead lama, let alone :monkey:man

  48. [“Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said if the treasurer really wanted to take pressure off interest rates, he would get government spending under control.]

    Demonstrate the utter foolishness of the man. US govt spending is out of control and record deficits yet they have interest rates of 1% or lower. Aust govt bond rates have actually fallen in recent time as there has been a flight to quality approx 3.5% now. Abott is an economic ignoramus yet the MSM do not pick him up on his foolish commentary.

  50. [The Euro summit just now has failed to reach agreement.]

    Wrong as usual. All 27 did not reach agreement. The UK will in a decade when they realise Cameron screwed them.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 88 of 92
1 … 87 88 89 … 92