Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.

Other poll news:

• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.

• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.

Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:

• The recommendations made in the post-election review conducted by Steve Bracks, John Faulkner and Bob Carr were mostly scotched, wih largely cosmetic exceptions. Most importantly, a plan to have a component of the National Conference be directly elected by the rank-and-filed has been referred to an implementation committee which the Left complains is unlikely to seriously progress it. Most of the 400 conference delegates are at present chosen by the state branches, which are responsible to state conferences which consist of 50 per cent union and 50 per cent constituency party representatives. NSW general secretary and Right faction figure Sam Dastyari had proposed the direct election of an extra 150 delegates – one from each of the 150 federal electorates – but the Left favoured a model in which half would be directly elected by party members and the other half directly appointed by trade unions (a presentation of the Right’s proposals is available from The Age). The resulting strengthening of the unions’ arm was widely criticised, although the Right was accused of using this as a pretext to scotch reforms which, in the view of a Right source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald, “would have diminished the faction’s influence by diluting the factional balance among delegates”. Alternatively, VexNews presumably speaks for the Right in complaining that the postal voting proposed for election of Conference delegates would confer an advantage on the Left, while Graham Richardson in The Australian expresses alarm at the near-success of Left policy measures that would have “finished” Julia Gillard, and cautions against “the practical effects of electing conference delegates directly by the rank and file”.

• Also rejected were proposals to give the elected national president and vice-presidents voting rights on the 20-member national executive; for state and territory presidents and vice-presidents to be elected by the rank-and-file; for the party’s national appeals tribunal to be given greater independence of the national executive; and for national executive and state administrative committee interventions into preselections to occur “only as a last resort”. It will be left to state branches to decide whether to implement a proposal to have 20 per cent of the preselection vote in some seats to be determined by primaries open to those willing to register as Labor supporters. A Left’s-eye-view of the fate of the Bracks-Faulkner-Carr recommendations has been obtained by Andrew Crook of Crikey.

A solitary preselection nugget:

• The Weekend Courier Community newspaper reports the Liberals have again endorsed Rockingham real estate agent Donna Gordin as their candidate for the southern Perth seat of Brand, held for Labor by Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3 per cent.

Last but not least, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its report on the funding of political parties and election campaigns, the conduct of which was part of the minority government agreements reached between Labor, the Greens and the independents after the 2010 election. It reiterates a number of measures which featured both in the government’s reform attempts in the previous term, which were thwarted in the Senate by the Coalition and Steve Fielding, and in the terms of the minority government agreement:

• The threshold for public disclosure of donations to political parties and third parties to be cut from $11,900 and $1000, reversing a radical change made in 2006 by the Howard government, with different state branches of the same party to be treated as the same entity to prevent multiple undisclosed donations;

• Disclosures of donations to be reported six-monthly rather than yearly, with the new report further suggesting donations over $100,000 be disclosed within two weeks;

• Public funding of parties and candidates who poll over 4 per cent of the vote to be limited to reimbursement of proved spending;

• Foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50 to be banned, and harsher penalties imposed for various offences.

The new report also recommends that:

• Money from fund-raising events be treated as donations and disclosed accordingly;

• Administrative penalties rather than rarely pursued criminal prosecutions apply for “straightforward” offences;

• Options be explored to cap spending by third parties for a period before an election;

• Registered political parties receive public funding to cope with the administrative burden of the changes (which I would be seizing on right now were I a tabloid hack).

What the report doesn’t recommend is donation and expenditure caps such as those which have been introduced at state level in New South Wales and Queensland, or the Greens-backed proposal for a ban on donations from tobacco companies (which the Greens successfully lobbied for in NSW). The terms of reference also did not require consideration of the “truth-in-advertising” requirement provided for by the minority government agreement. A dissenting report from the Coalition members again disapproved of higher disclosure thresholds on the unconvincing grounds that it would “significantly impact the ability of individuals to give donations to political parties without the potential for intimidation and harassment”. It also called for a dedicated electoral fraud squad in the Australian Electoral Commission, to deal with an issue the AEC itself does not recognise as a serious problem.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,657 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 34
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  1. [meanwhile the Herald Sun has a two page spread on Peter Slipper today]

    Wow! Nasty!

    I’d hate for anyone to dig down into my past looking for skeletons.

    And I can assure youse, that Andrew Rule, the piece’s author, would hate to have it done to him, too.

  2. GG

    agreed. As I just mentioned, the govt’s biggest issue is sorting out the strained relationship they have with KR. They really need to have it out. Does KR want to be part of the team, and if so, the govt need to show they are a united team, otherwise it will continue to gain momentum.

  3. So Peta Credlin travels with Abbott because it’s more efficient than making phone calls to another “traveller”? I don’t believe it. I think he literally has to have a minute-by-minute rottweiler to keep him on the rails and, importantly, to cut his pressers short as soon as he gets away from prepared mantras.

  4. Is it any surprise that TA was back in WA the day of/day after the Hogwarts non-audit issue came to light. Is is also coincidence Howard was in town the same day signing books.

  5. [But, like everyone from Slippery’s former side of politics, she is bemused by the defection of a supposed pumpkin-scone Queenslander who wrapped himself in the flag, the Bible and the monarchy for 30 years, only to slip into bed with southern socialist tree-huggers who don’t even oppose gay marriage any more.]

    Doesn’t sound overly shocking or weird to me. If they want to do weird they should try having a closer look at Tony Abbott.

  6. [Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd, against the background of leadership tensions at last weekend’s national conference, was asked whether Ms Gillard was doing a good job. He told the ABC: ”The Prime Minister has been elected in very difficult circumstances in June of last year and has acquitted herself to a very difficult task. Given all that’s been thrown at the government, it’s … obvious that we were going to have some paint removed from us during the course of this year. But I believe, given all those challenges, the government has come through as effectively as possible.”]

    Notable of course, for what he doesn’t say.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/shorten-to-step-up-the-pace-amid-ministerial-manoeuvres-20111209-1onrf.html

  11. confessions

    As I have already stated, the biggest problem facing the govt is not Abbott, but their own issues. They are all adults, surely they can come to an understanding!!

  12. vic,

    The message for Rudd is that he’s not the head of the queue and that the long list of potential names in front of his make it a far queue for Kevin.

  13. Award winning journalist Andrew Rule is reduced to writing agenda driven dross for the most discredited news organisation in the world. Sad really.

  15. GG

    The Herald Sun article again refers to the “video”, which is from 2003, nearly 9 years ago. Interesting that it still has not been released. Dennis Atkins said a few weeks ago on Insiders to expect it any day.

  16. victoria – hope the muscle massage works for your daughter. Sounds like they may be inflamed.

    Agree with you re Kev and JG coming to some arrangement for them and each group of their supporters to sort this out pronto. It’s dispiriting for members and supporters who have to do some hard yards for them.

    [I was thinking about all this flying about Mr Abbott (and helpers) are doing earlier. Are we paying for all his little ‘visits/pressers’ in far flung locations.

    Some visable information would be ‘nice’. The Dept of Finance has this information.]

    Ctar1 – I think there was a little bit about airfares a few months ago but I think we should have the full cost of travel, accommodation, meals, etc.

    The PM of the country moves around to discuss policy issues with various groups. Abbott is moving around with no concrete policy to discuss for the next 18 months or so – it is pure electioneering as pointed out in that article this morning by Taylor.

  19. Scringler,

    It’s allegedly the Mark Latham Bucks Night Video that has been spruiked about but never seems to turn up. It didn’t show up back then. I doubt it will turn up now.

  24. Great letter in the SMH:

    [“I think I smell a myth: revenue from pokies enables cheap meals to be provided by clubs. I’ve eaten the stuff and it’s cheap because it’s cheap crap from a box. The money from pokies goes into carpets, mirrors, faux chandeliers, a few peripheral pockets, and more pokies.”]

  25. lizzie – how is OH doing.

    Agree with you that Abbott needs a minder 24/7. That article this morning is interesting in pointing out that he is kept virtually secluded and that his non media staff is not allowed near anyone else either.

    Yet still the MSM love him – his speeches are written up as being witty and interesting, even when he makes giant faux paus. I can see why most of the jounros want him to be PM. He will write their stories for them every day and they won’t need to do a jot of work for themselves.

  26. Kevin Rudd is a hero for getting rid of Howard, but that’s it. He’s had his day in the sun and should now get on with his job and keep his trap shut. In other words, Kev: Shut up. You are becoming a pest.

  27. davidwh,

    I’m sure that is the case. But up until now, there has always been a nagging doubt.

    I don’t think the “end of Rudd’s dream of a come back” message has been as comprehensively delivered through the local Press as Atkins has today.

    That’s the difference.

  28. A scandalous video of the former Vice President of the National Press Club is widely available and appears not to have damaged his career any more than his ill considered and factually incorrect writings. But then, the press apparently have a different set of standards of behaviour than what is expected of the rest of us.

  32. @ BH #216

    I’m having a look at the info tabled every 6 months.

    It is quite detailed on actual payments to the member and their family and who of those travelled where and when, and lots of other stuff.

    A large gap seems to be how many staff were paid to go with them – you know that a member went and ‘certified’ that it was within the guidelines but for the retinue I haven’t found the equivalent.

  35. BH

    Thanks for asking. He is home again and has had a TIA (transient ischimic attack) with no after effects.
    However, this has been diagnosed as an indication of a clogging in one carotid artery, which the neurologist suggested should be dealt with asap.
    So the attack may be a blessing in disguise.

  36. CTar1 – thanks. Did it give explicit number of trips for Abbott and how much for each or just a total for the period? Length of period?

    I had trouble finding anything specific.

  38. Possum’s article in one swoop discredits the media’s / Coalition’s everything-Labor-touches-turns-to-shit spin campaign. Expect the MSM to steer well clear of it.

  43. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 10, 2011 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    fredn:

    Possum’s post deserves a run in the msm.]

    Agreed, but it isn’t going to happen.

  44. scringler

    Thank you.
    He was in a teaching hospital, which meant that he was prodded and tested by “hordes” of young docs, but the various treatments he has received over the past three years, virtually free, say soooo much for the wonderful health service we have.
    I know there are some bad things about, but overall it’s fantastic.
    OTOH, we have access to Melbourne services (as long as there is an ambulance available – it’s not reliable). Country services farther out would be a different matter.

  46. The white-anting of Kevin Rudd is well underway.

    Yesterday Alex Probyn finished an excellent article by saying
    [If Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd can’t find a way to work together, one of them is going to get hurt.]

    I just bet it won’t be Julia who gets hurt.

    Over the last week or so we’ve had quite a lot of not-so-complementary things written and said about Rudd. Someone in Labor said MPs would rather chew their arms off than see him back as PM. There was Probyn’s ‘shit iceberg’ comments and Dennis Atkins article. This morning on Sky News Agenda Cassandra Wilkinson talked about the PM doing a great job cleaning up the mess left by Kevin Rudd and said she looked forward to seeing Julia become her own woman next year. We are seeing more and more along those lines.

    It’s all very low-key so far, but it’s out there and it’s growing.

  47. [150
    BK
    Posted Saturday, December 10, 2011 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    Is anyone having trouble with BigPond incoming email at the moment?]

    Bigpond have disable their pop servers.

  48. lizzie – Well done for it to be picked up quickly. A friend had same experience and is sparking on all fours after having carotid done (both sides actually). It’s good to know something can be done.

  50. GG @200

    Nikki Savva on Insiders a couple of wks ago said wtte that there was nothing in his past that would fatally damage him…just hoping he will f**k-up in future.

    …Forlorn hope for mine 🙂

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