Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.

Other poll news:

• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.

• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.

Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:

• The recommendations made in the post-election review conducted by Steve Bracks, John Faulkner and Bob Carr were mostly scotched, wih largely cosmetic exceptions. Most importantly, a plan to have a component of the National Conference be directly elected by the rank-and-filed has been referred to an implementation committee which the Left complains is unlikely to seriously progress it. Most of the 400 conference delegates are at present chosen by the state branches, which are responsible to state conferences which consist of 50 per cent union and 50 per cent constituency party representatives. NSW general secretary and Right faction figure Sam Dastyari had proposed the direct election of an extra 150 delegates – one from each of the 150 federal electorates – but the Left favoured a model in which half would be directly elected by party members and the other half directly appointed by trade unions (a presentation of the Right’s proposals is available from The Age). The resulting strengthening of the unions’ arm was widely criticised, although the Right was accused of using this as a pretext to scotch reforms which, in the view of a Right source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald, “would have diminished the faction’s influence by diluting the factional balance among delegates”. Alternatively, VexNews presumably speaks for the Right in complaining that the postal voting proposed for election of Conference delegates would confer an advantage on the Left, while Graham Richardson in The Australian expresses alarm at the near-success of Left policy measures that would have “finished” Julia Gillard, and cautions against “the practical effects of electing conference delegates directly by the rank and file”.

• Also rejected were proposals to give the elected national president and vice-presidents voting rights on the 20-member national executive; for state and territory presidents and vice-presidents to be elected by the rank-and-file; for the party’s national appeals tribunal to be given greater independence of the national executive; and for national executive and state administrative committee interventions into preselections to occur “only as a last resort”. It will be left to state branches to decide whether to implement a proposal to have 20 per cent of the preselection vote in some seats to be determined by primaries open to those willing to register as Labor supporters. A Left’s-eye-view of the fate of the Bracks-Faulkner-Carr recommendations has been obtained by Andrew Crook of Crikey.

A solitary preselection nugget:

• The Weekend Courier Community newspaper reports the Liberals have again endorsed Rockingham real estate agent Donna Gordin as their candidate for the southern Perth seat of Brand, held for Labor by Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3 per cent.

Last but not least, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its report on the funding of political parties and election campaigns, the conduct of which was part of the minority government agreements reached between Labor, the Greens and the independents after the 2010 election. It reiterates a number of measures which featured both in the government’s reform attempts in the previous term, which were thwarted in the Senate by the Coalition and Steve Fielding, and in the terms of the minority government agreement:

• The threshold for public disclosure of donations to political parties and third parties to be cut from $11,900 and $1000, reversing a radical change made in 2006 by the Howard government, with different state branches of the same party to be treated as the same entity to prevent multiple undisclosed donations;

• Disclosures of donations to be reported six-monthly rather than yearly, with the new report further suggesting donations over $100,000 be disclosed within two weeks;

• Public funding of parties and candidates who poll over 4 per cent of the vote to be limited to reimbursement of proved spending;

• Foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50 to be banned, and harsher penalties imposed for various offences.

The new report also recommends that:

• Money from fund-raising events be treated as donations and disclosed accordingly;

• Administrative penalties rather than rarely pursued criminal prosecutions apply for “straightforward” offences;

• Options be explored to cap spending by third parties for a period before an election;

• Registered political parties receive public funding to cope with the administrative burden of the changes (which I would be seizing on right now were I a tabloid hack).

What the report doesn’t recommend is donation and expenditure caps such as those which have been introduced at state level in New South Wales and Queensland, or the Greens-backed proposal for a ban on donations from tobacco companies (which the Greens successfully lobbied for in NSW). The terms of reference also did not require consideration of the “truth-in-advertising” requirement provided for by the minority government agreement. A dissenting report from the Coalition members again disapproved of higher disclosure thresholds on the unconvincing grounds that it would “significantly impact the ability of individuals to give donations to political parties without the potential for intimidation and harassment”. It also called for a dedicated electoral fraud squad in the Australian Electoral Commission, to deal with an issue the AEC itself does not recognise as a serious problem.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,657 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition”

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  1. george,

    Your A1 is great. Pity about my Canon A4 printer.

    Did you see all the plaudits Poss got?

    Printed off Poss’s post for swmbo and she was impressed. She does a lot of work around retirement homes and gets to see a lot of the downside.

  2. [george,

    Your A1 is great. Pity about my Canon A4 printer.

    Did you see all the plaudits Poss got?

    Printed off Poss’s post for swmbo and she was impressed. She does a lot of work around retirement homes and gets to see a lot of the downside.]

    Ducky, Poss is my hero – always has been ever since I discovered his blog. Bloody brilliant stuff.

  3. george,

    I discovered Poss mid-07. He educated me about polls. Then I latched on to PB and the rest is history.

    07 was a great time on PB.: Kirribilli removals, ESJ and all the rest.

  4. [I discovered Poss mid-07. He educated me about polls. ]

    Probably about the same time I did. I remember (now I feel like an old person going over memories) when I sent him a fancy chart which had the MOE shaded together with the poll numbers and he included it with one of his blog posts – made me feel like I was at least 1% as smart as he was 😀

  5. Early next year, federal cabinet will consider

    Early next year, I’ll be considering a few things but no way will I tell Lenore about it.

  6. “Display driver has stopped responding and has recovered”

    Often technology leaves much to be desired – like why doesn’t it work properly?

  7. Yes 2007 was a great time on PB with all the former posters and the current ones.

    I agree that Hughes sadly needs to be dropped, his dismissal was poor for he seemed to be closing the face which lead to the ball traveling to the slips.

    I think he just needs a state game and hit a big score to regain his confidence.

  8. Thurlbeck on Monday, Crone on Tuesday, Myler on Wednesday … all lined up with time between to evaluate and x-ref.

    Thurlbeck is a ‘weak as p#ss’ type so if they can crack him, then revelations will flow on Tuesday & Wednesday as the witnesses go in to cover your ar#e mode.

    Dick Thomas seems to say it down to Brown, Straw, … whoever.

    Crone/Myler more likely to dump on dear Rebekka or Murdoch the younger.

  9. Mr Thomas is scoring points against Davies, QC, on the ethics of journos using private investigators to find out phone numbers or home addresses.

  10. What a friggen Joke:

    [8 December 2011

    2GB’s Asylum-seeker quiz breaches radio code

    The Australian Communications and Media Authority has found that the licensee of 2GB breached the Commercial Radio Code of Practice and Guidelines 2010 (the code) requirement that material broadcast must not offend generally accepted standards of decency.

    The breach occurred during a broadcast of The Chris Smith Afternoon Show on 14 February
    2011 when the presenter held a quiz
    competition concerning funeral arrangements for the asylum-seekers killed in the December
    2010 Christmas Island boat crash.

    2GB acknowledged that the quiz competition was ‘offensive, in very bad taste, and that it should not have been broadcast.’ Following receipt of complaints regarding the quiz, the presenter made what the ACMA accepts as two unconditional on-air apologies.

    This is the first breach of this code
    provision by the licensee. 2GB was responsive to listener concerns over the incident and admitted its breach. ‘In those circumstances, the ACMA does not propose to take further formal action’ said ACMA Chairman, Chris Chapman.

    2GB has agreed to provide a copy of the ACMA’s investigation report to presenters and producers as well to incorporate the report into compliance training materials.

    The ACMA also found that 2GB did not breach provisions of the code relating to inciting hatred against, serious contempt for, or severe ridicule of a group of persons or regarding complaints handling.

    Investigation report 2598 is available on the ACMA’s website.

    For more information or to arrange an
    interview please contact: Blake Murdoch
    ]

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    It figures that the unfair hatchet jo on Tim Costello was the work of the disgraceful Joe Hildebrand. That man is typical of the breed that I think of when, in business situations, I refer to a person being a “typical Sydney boofhead.”
    He has NO redeeming feature.
    Finns
    One more for your BSON. And one more for Joe Hockey to choke on.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/income-enjoys-growth-spurt-20111209-1onqa.html
    A great read from Mike Carlton with nominations fro Whinger of the Year. All of our favorites get a guernsey. He is asking for further nominations before conferring the tile next week.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-gutful-of-all-the-bellyaching-20111209-1ong6.html

  12. Hey BK
    From US, political pressure (attempted to be) applied as a result of impact of technological change on business models, paralleling discussions here on GST:
    [Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) should end its price- checking promotion because it gives consumers an incentive to gather price data from small retailers and leave stores without spending money, said Senator Olympia Snowe.

    The world’s largest online retailer is offering a 5 percent discount to entice users to try a new mobile application that compares prices with physical retailers. The app, called Price Check, allows shoppers to look up Amazon’s prices by scanning products at a store using their phones.

    “Amazon’s promotion — paying consumers to visit small businesses and leave empty-handed — is an attack on Main Street businesses that employ workers in our communities,” Snowe, a Maine Republican, said in a statement yesterday. “Small businesses are fighting everyday to compete with giant retailers, such as Amazon, and incentivizing consumers to spy on local shops is a bridge too far.”]
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/snowe-asks-amazon-to-halt-price-check-promo.html

  13. Personally, I would put the political system rather closer to the top of the list of “something wrong in” America; Mr Perry in particular
    [WASHINGTON: Rick Perry has made a last-ditch attempt to woo the Christian Right and save his campaign for the US presidency by attacking improvements to gay rights under the President, Barack Obama, as a ”war” on ordinary Americans.

    The Governor of Texas, whose support has sharply fallen since his brief spell as front-runner in September, accused the President of encouraging a ”lifestyle” many found ”deeply objectionable”.

    In a new television advertisement, he said: ”There’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.”…

    Mr Perry’s decision to seize on gay issues appears to be an effort to tap into the sentiment that led Iowa voters to remove three Supreme Court justices after they voted to legalise same-sex marriage. But this year economic issues, on which Mr Perry had initially focused in his campaign, remain the greatest concern.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/when-all-else-fails-perry-plays-antigay-card-to-woo-christian-right-20111209-1onr0.html#ixzz1g4LgOyWg

  14. BK
    [closest confidants are Pyne, Brandis and Joyce]
    You don’t think it shows? 😀

    I somehow suspect Abbott aint the type of guy to actively encourage people better than himself to come on to the team. Peta Credlin is coming in for some stick as well.

    BTW, no ill-effects from the car smash I trust?

  15. Bk.
    Mike did not mention, joe who whinges and whines about interest rates,
    Up and down
    But i hope mike gives the award to TABBOOT and it makes fron t page , lovl. Add very in there

    Gosh I think balderdash sounds great,

  16. BK
    Unsubtle stupid empty slogan “factoids” – Perry that is (but as I think you’ve said before, Abbott springs to mind). But I liked some of the comments too:
    [He’s the male Sarah Palin. She didn’t know what papers she reads on a daily basis but she “looked hot.” He doesn’t know why he says what he says but he “looks good.” …

    Rick Perry has a war on Intelligence…At least this moron is providing more examples for books on logical fallacies!

    Rick Perry and Wolf Blitzer in the same room at the same time?!?!?! Wouldn’t that much stupidity cause reality to collapse upon itself?]

  17. Gosh. The pictures of abbott made me chuckle
    Reminded of the boys story books of the 50s

    Is this article with pictures in the dead tree version

  18. Good Morning BK, my say and fellow Dawn Parollers,

    Yep, the BSONs are looking better and better. And the graphical qualitative representation has also started to form in my mind. It needs more time for brewing.

    [Income enjoys growth spurt, December 10, 2011

    WELLBEING grew twice as fast as gross domestic product in the September quarter thanks to a big rise in national income from the boom in commodity prices and cheaper imports.

    The Herald/Lateral Economics Index of Australia’s Wellbeing rose 2.2 per cent in the quarter, outstripping GDP growth of 1 per cent.

    The index is a Herald initiative that adjusts GDP for changes in the nation’s physical, natural and human capital, and in health, income inequality and job satisfaction……… Dr Gruen warned that the findings showed Australia’s wellbeing was particularly vulnerable to swings in commodity prices. ”That should lead us to be wary that just as we rode the terms of trade up, they’re likely to come down and that will depress our wellbeing as it occurs.”

    But the positive contribution from the growth in human capital was an unqualified positive. ”Unless we have high levels of long-term unemployment, the know-how we develop is with us for a long time.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/income-enjoys-growth-spurt-20111209-1onqa.html#ixzz1g4UcwqUQ

  19. Taylors piece is interesting but in its praise of Abbott it completely ignores the elephant in the room: Abbott’s very low approval ratings and his losing the PPM: he is an unpopular OL ie. he is the problem

  20. I don’t know why Lenore Taylor is so pissed off:

    [But in a measure of how completely botched, corrupted and messed up the process to award the Australia Network has been, federal cabinet found itself backed into such a corner on Monday that it made a ”policy decision” that the service should be a ”permanent feature” of the ABC.]

    The simple answer is that in this day and age you don’t give a Murdoch organization any more ownership or participation in pay TV operations or projects above what they already (unfortunately) hold, especially ones that involve representing national (and taxpayer-funded) faces to the world.

    She ends her article thus:

    [The decision is now being justified on the basis that most countries see their overseas service as a natural fit with their public broadcaster, in Britain the job is done by the BBC and in Germany by Deutsche Welle. That argument may be right, but surely we need some explanation as to why this was not the assessment made by the government at the outset.

    Strip all those things away and this sorry saga just paints a picture of the way this government does business. And it’s not a pretty one.]

    The second simple answer is that Rudd made a stupid (or worse) mistake for which the government is now enduring short term pain from the likes of Taylor, in return for long-term gain of not having Rupert Bloody Murdoch within coo’ee of anything to do with government money, especially THIS government’s money.

    You think this saga is not a pretty one, Lenore? Try Sky News as the public face of Australia to the Asian continent.

    That’s ugly all the way down to the bone.

    You don’t compound one mistake by proceeding doggedly on with a second simply to avoid sprays by pipsqueaks like Lenore Taylor and Chris Mitchell. Pay the News bastards their compensation, then piss them off permanently.

    It took years of scandals, police corruption, egregious wrong doing, phone hacking, misery inflicted upon relatives of dead young girls, suicides, unfair dismissals, political chicanery, back room dirty deals, lies and malignant malfeasance for the British government to finally knock the B-Sky-B “arrangement” on the head and to do something relatively serious about News.

    Are we forever doomed to repeat the mistakes of history?

    Is this some kind of putrid Groundhog Day where we continually play Murdoch’s “Banner Game”, by his own rules? A game that says no matter how corrupt one part of their organization has been proved to be, governments must go through the whole process of proving it over and over again with the other banners that the organization puts up as fronts for its Chariman’s megalomania?

    Or should we just accept the incontrovertible truth that News has continually proved tiself to be not a fit and proper organization to run anything much at all – from football teams, to newspapers, to continent-spanning satellite TV operations – and be done with the Australia TV affair as bad mistake, a ridiculous idea from the get-go?

    I am very surprised that Lenore Taylor, a refugee from Murdoch’s fetid, decaying organization, would go into bat with such vehemence for her old boss and his disgusting cronies.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/tv-drama-upstaged-by-political-soap-opera-20111209-1ondg.html#ixzz1g4ajlrQa

  21. Morning Bludgers!

    Thanks for the link to the Taylor article. And yes, Andrew, she missed the very obvious point that his personal ratings are tanking and the PM’s are picking up. THIS is the reason he needs to reinvent himself next year, because the signs are he has already lost Round 1. Bringing the same tactics to Round 2 will see him receive more of a pummelling, not just from the PM but now from the media.

    BK: that stuff on Tim Costello yesterday was appalling. What Hildebrand and others fail to acknowledge is that Costello is a “walk the walk” person. He is the real deal and he is consistent across his beliefs. He doesn’t approve of gambling and doesn’t take money from gambling, in much the same way he wouldn’t take money from the proceeds of prostitution or drugs. Fr Riley’s position seems to be that he doesn’t care where the money comes from, as long as it comes. THAT is the problem; he can’t argue against the evils of gambling on one hand (IF he does, that is) and on the other accept cheques from the people who help others to gamble.

    It’s a form of hypocrisy if you ask me. In a “saint-off” between Costello and Riley, I’d have my money on Costello any day (and pardon the obvious irony).

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