Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.

Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.

UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,070 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [I’m rather sanguine about those left/right fights in Labor. I think it’s good for the public to see Caucus in debate.]

    confessions – so do I but most of the voters don’t. They just see disruption without realising debate is good. No disruptions in the Opposition at all on the surface but we know they are paddling fast to keep it all quiet.

  2. rishane,
    [I assume Gillard is the studious one who gets ignored in the school newspaper because she’s less popular than captain of the football team Tony Abbott?]
    He would be their champion sprinter, but in the relay team blames everyone else when he drops the baton.

    Did Abbott ever actually play team sports?

  13. Is it behind the pay wall.

    If they read here we re a laughing stock

    I am watching. Under seig2

    Who cares pm figures up people say geee they lime her well why not then, the teams. Figures to follow

    Night

  17. Dee & Cuppa – because they posted it early by accident, and realised and took it down?

    Probably shot today, distributed through their system to go on the various newspaper sites, but ended up there before midnight. Yanked back down when someone noticed.

    Ghost may have been monitoring all the sites hoping for a hint. He would know where to look. Suggests he has lost a source at News Ltd.

  18. [ I assume Gillard is the studious one who gets ignored in the school newspaper because she’s less popular than captain of the football team Tony Abbott?

    He would be their champion sprinter, but in the relay team blames everyone else when he drops the baton. ]

    Meanwhile, Annabel Crabb and Katherine Murphy aregiggling and wetting their knickers down at the bus stop because they think Tony smiled at them.

  22. [Who cares pm figures up people say geee they like her well why not then, the teams. Figures to follow]

    Haven’t seen today’s result, but Gillard has had a 60% disapproval rate for the last 5 months or so.

    “they like her” is probably not a sentence I would be using just yet…

  27. Let’s hope Andrew Crook (today’s Crikey sub) is correct, on how the numbers on gay marriage are looking:
    [ALP equal love campaigners are confident of extracting significant “bleed” from the party’s Right on gay marriage at next week’s national conference, with just 20 defectors required to change Labor’s official platform and by implication federal law.

    Crikey understands that the numbers on the issue have been worked feverishly over the weekend to corral the required 201 delegates needed to enact the historic change and end discrimination.

    While the Left is expected to vote broadly as a bloc, individual delegates from the Right are being directly pressed to flush out their true position. The majority of the Australian public support same-s-x unions and Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who supports a self-defeating “conscience vote”, is primed for a fight.]

  29. My Say
    [What a stupid cat and mouse game]
    We have come to expect bad polls or steady as she goes.
    The intrigue is the cat & mouse game being played.
    It’s quite comical!

  32. [What a stupid cat and mouse game]

    Completely agree. If PvO is supposed to be the new ‘Ghost’ then all I can say is bring back the original and best!

  34. Hockey is in the diner, ordering a double sundae, Morrison is teasing the kids from the other side of the railway tracks and Bernadi’s working out how to take over the student council.

  38. http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/11/when-bubble-bursts.html

    Andrew Elder’s latest

    [21 November 2011
    When the bubble bursts

    The dynamic nature of politics means that a policy vacuum rarely remains a vacuum for long (even so, this does not mean a policy can’t be described as vacuous almost indefinitely). The whole Abbott-Credlin method of opposing every policy Labor puts up is starting to implode because people need to act on the basis of what’s real. You can’t sustain anyone or anything on the fantasy that a couple of media-management junkies seek to project, as though it were – or might one day become – real.]

    worth a read

  42. [Mr PvO is spending too much time in academe.]

    The rarified air of academia lends itself to self indulgent, self interest. PVO hasn’t shaken it off in the real world.

  43. PVO showing what a lightweight he is. I watched Agenda yesterday lunchtime and thought he was shown up to be out of his depth with the rest of the panel and that’s allowing for the fact that I can’t stand Sheridan.

  45. Newspoll 53:47 2PP according to front page online of OO.

    Nothing to lose much sleep over. No change at 2pp on my memory of previous one.

  47. [Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    Yeah it’s me….. I am the @GhostWhoVotes…. I just keep the results from everyone for hours and hours bf tweeting it at midnight! LOL]

  49. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @conceravota Newspoll 53:47 2PP according to front page online of OO. – so what is the fuss? But the big news will be Abbott’s numebrs
    3 seconds ago

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