Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.

Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.

UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,070 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. ]

    I wouldn’t regard that as set in concrete. To allow a strawman, our own Joe6pack was hostile to carbon pricing while he believed it threatened the viability of his business. Once the details were given and it was clear that he wouldn’t be seriously damaged, he softened markedly.

    I expect the same to happen over a larger part of Queensland once the details are clearer, as they will be by July. There has been a concerted effort at misinformation by Abbott and the media over a lengthy period. It takes some time to digest the truth.

    Other factors will also be at work in Queensland over the longer term. Infrasructure work will help with employment. The Commonwealth Games will give some confidence to a struggling tourist industry. Recovery from disasters will continue.

    The 2PP vote for Labor may still not get up to or over 50, but will likely get well above 45 over time.

  2. [The 2PP vote for Labor may still not get up to or over 50]

    And, in fact, it’s highly unlikely it will. Even in 2007 the 2PP was barely in the ALP’s favour.

  3. The demeaning of Tony Abbott continues by Paul Kelly:

    [The Prime Minister, a foreign policy novice from the ALP Left, seems an improbable leader for this job. Yet Gillard has plunged ahead: she has emerged as aggressively pro-American, keen to fashion a personal bond with Obama, anxious to strengthen military ties and supportive of the US recommitment to Asia.

    Indeed, she seems a Labor variation on John Howard.

    Smith told The Weekend Australian yesterday: “This Labor government has argued since it’s been in office that power was shifting to the Asia-Pacific and that we wanted the US more comprehensively involved in this part of the world. That is now happening.

    “I think this week’s defence announcements are the most significant for military co-operation since the joint facilities in the 1980s.”]

    Since Tony Abbott described himself as the love child of John Howard, what makes Gillard then?

  4. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    USA has to return to Asia for its own survival, as Europe lies in economical ruins. It’s the economy, stupid. Hillary learned well #auspol
    39 seconds ago

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The usual tripe from the inveterate boring blowhard Tony Wright.
    Jessica Irvine gives us another good economic piece.
    Cathy Wilcox looks at recent political engagement in Australia.
    Ron Tandberg has a well aimed blow at Abbott.

  6. I said it before, Watch Indo’s reaction is more important. Not Beijing’s:

    [Indonesia wary of strengthened Australia-US defence ties in Darwin. INDONESIA’S military commander fears his nation could be drawn into disputes in the South China Sea when 2500 US Marines are deployed for training near Darwin.

    Admiral Agus Suhartono’s remarks came as the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, landed in Bali for the East Asia Summit, where the US and China appear to be on a collision course over security in the South China Sea.]

    Read more:

  7. Indeed, we do have short memory, courtesy of Mike Carlton:

    [When I was a kid I wanted to be an American. Passionately, longingly. Viewed from No. 53 Orchard Road, Chatswood, America beckoned like El Dorado, a shimmering kaleidoscope of glamour and riches……… So whatever happened to Darlene and whatever happened to America? Here’s a modern parable for you. In 1998, at the age of 57, Darlene Faye Gillespie, ex-Mouseketeer, was sentenced to two years in a federal prison for banking fraud. In 2005 she and her third husband were indicted again, this time for an insurance racket.

    And America? There is now a Grand Canyon of disparity between rich and poor, with the savings of the middle class plundered by the thieves of Wall Street, and millions out of work. In the 70 years since Darlene’s birth in 1941 the United States has been constantly at war around the planet. When he left the White House in 1961, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who knew what he was talking about, had warned of “the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex”, but nobody had listened.]

    Read more:

    Yes, USA has no choice bit to return to Asia.

  8. Last election was 55.14 LNP to ALP’s 44.86. So a swing of less than 3% against the ALP. This is pretty good for the ALP at this stage, with plenty of room for improvement. The gay marriage issue may give them a boost in Gambaro’s marginal LNP seat of Brisbane (if she votes against any private members bill before the next election). All in all, nothing to see here.

  9. feeny
    Thanks for that. I am not alone then.
    He has a spot on ABC local radio in Adelaide and he is simply hopeless and bumbling.
    Ans so totally full of himself.

  10. Hey Greg Sheridan, where are you now? EAS Leader Summit with POTUS n attendance to discuss security matters related to the Asian region:

    [Within months of becoming prime minister, Kevin Rudd began pushing for a new regional body for the Asia Pacific region which would involve the US.

    It should, he said in a June 2008 speech, “engage in the full spectrum of dialogue, co-operation and action on economic and political matters and future challenges related to security”.

    There was criticism, including from the opposition in Australia, but the then prime minister persisted. In another speech December 2009 he suggested that the East Asia Summit (ESA) might be able to do the job if the US became a member.]

  11. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    The events of the last two weeks show that Tony Abbott is small minded & erratic, not fit to be the Aust PM. Best suited as a clown #auspol
    23 seconds ago

  12. Regaining trust in Brisbane will be key. While it will only give a small gain statewide, a few marginal Brisbane seats could come back into the ALP fold.

    See, the thing about states like QLD and WA is that the ALP is probably not going to see a majority in them for a while, but they both have a few Coalition marginals that can be picked off by minor gain. That’s the ALP’s goal here. It’s the same reason the Coalition spend their time in Victoria and, to a lesser extent, Tasmania. They’re not gonna win those states outright but they might just take a few marginals back.

    It’s NSW and SA that tend to swing all over the place.

    Plus there’s also Solomon in the NT.

  13. Greece & Italy are being run by unelected Prime Ministers with *technocrat* executives comprising their cabinets. The new Italian PM was also a senior advisor to the vampire squid, Goldman Sachs.

    Now Ireland has apparently had to submit its budget to the Germans before Ireland’s own people or parliament saw it.

    Its basically what Germany wanted before WW1.

    CNBC talking Heads yesterday arvo banging on that *democracy* was not possible in the current circumstances, *maybe further down the track* as of course *there is no alternative*.

    How long before the people of Euroland burr up about it, particularly German taxpayers? Or will they just accept it?

    The other fly in the ointment is, if Germany is going to pickup the tab for Europe’s debts, then Germany’s own finances will be shot to pieces.

    Who will bail Germany out when the bond vigilantes turn up to demand 7, 8, 9 or 10% plus yields on Germany’s debts and those it has effectively taken on and will take on from other European countries?

    Germany still saying it will not agree to more money printing, but its just a matter of time.

    Ireland: “Germany Is Our New Master”

    The Irish government has complained to European partners after confidential budget information shared with its EU-IMF lenders was leaked by German lawmakers, sparking a political storm at home.

    The media and opposition reacted furiously at the fact that the details of the December budget were presented to German lawmakers before their Irish counterparts, heightening fears that its EU-IMF bailout has undermined Irish sovereignty.

    “Germany is our new master,” ran a banner front-page headline in the Irish Daily Mirror. Opposition leaders in parliament described the leaks as “incredible” and “unprecedented” and demanded the government explain

  14. mari

    Posted Saturday, November 19, 2011 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Just a quick comment, I am off to see the family for a week or so, however when I got up this morning, looked out and saw a whale, I thought they had all passed but this must be a straggler, was lucky to see it, but a beautiful clear day here so it stood out against the blue, looked a couple minutes later and it was gone, so no hanging around to play.
    May the force be with you and the trend keep going the right way
    woops sorry put it on wrong blog, but still the same message, and thanks Lyne Lady


    Worth a look. US articles on poltical rumour emails. We don’t get so many here, but I’ve seen a couple.

    [The e-mail rumor mill is run by conservatives
    By Paul Farhi, Published: November 18

    Will Medicare premiums go up nearly 21 / 2 times over the next two years in order to pay for the health-care legislation signed by President Obama last year? Well, no, they won’t. But you might think an increase is coming if you read a chain e-mail that has spread across the country in the past few months. “Send this to all seniors that you know,” it says. “So they will know who’s throwing them under the bus.”

    Will Americans be subjected to international gun-control laws under a new U.N. weapons treaty signed by Hillary Rodham Clinton? Is the president honoring Jane Fonda as one of the “women of the century”? Was suspected Fort Hood shooter Maj. Nidal Hasan an adviserto the Obama administration?]

    worth a read

  16. Not sure what it is like in the rest of the country but there is pain, real pain in the small business sector in Qld.

    Pair of King parrots together for a feed Magic!!

  17. [The events of the last two weeks show that Tony Abbott is small minded & erratic, not fit to be the Aust PM. Best suited as a clown #auspol]
    But not a funny big shoes, red nose clown. One of those socially awkward clowns that make you sympathise at their inability to realise they are embarrassing themselves AKA Mr Bean or Basil Fawlty (just not as funny)

  18. Good morning, Bludgers.

    [How cute are these owls?

    Ta BK. Cute as kittens.

    Apart from a terrified frogmouth, back to the trunk on a few cms of branch the previous night’s storm ripped off, I’ve not seen one in the yard, though we hear them (inc Barking Owl with no off-switch). Like our koalas: heard, loved, but unseen.

    Loved the Cathy Wilcox toon! Sparks memories of teaching in high schools during Beatles, Rolling Stones, Rick Wakeman etc concerts in Briz (camping out overnight for tickets was the best part. The Ticketek generation has soo been ROBBED!) So Coool. *Sigh*

    Can’t see the revived Obama/ USA love affair waning next year. For sure he’s been invited back for a surprise Coral Sea Week visit. Main celebrations are in Briz (US memorial on the river in Newstead Park) and NQ port cities -so, unless the polls turn sharply earlier, don’t expect a Q election before them. (BTW: Pacific War’s ALP state Premier was F A Cooper).

    Psssst! Don’t mention having to teach the Yanks jungle warfare after their bumbling, bungling Kokoda & Milne Bay efforts. US Vets are trying to get here – rumours of Oz-assisted trips.

    As Brisbane’s back-up Garrison City, whose local Regiment starred in Milne Bay (with VC) and Borneo, locals will go berserk. Sadly, none of my uncles and U-i-ls are still alive; not that, in life, they ever wanted to remember. Milne Bay was hell-on-earth where mates you’d known from school days (often earlier) were splattered all over you, and the nightmares only died with you.

    In the Year of the 70th anniversary of the Pacific War’s great, frequent & victorious battles, and terrible tragedies (all with Curtin’s Labor in power federally) the American Alliance will play well in what should be a positive time for Gillard’s government.

  19. In a column in the SMH today Penny Wong looks at the way Labor legislated to remove discrimination in the past – by introducing legislative change – and goes on:
    [This heritage is consistent with my view that a conscience vote should not be Labor’s answer to the calls for equality within the party and the wider community.
    Equality should not be a matter of conscience; it should be reflected in Labor policy.
    A conscience vote in the Parliament does not change ALP policy, and it is the party’s platform which needs to change. A conscience vote is not a substitute for reforms to the platform which are long overdue.]

    Read more:

  20. I used to despise Howard because he’d go on about fiscal responsibility but I’d remember just how useless he was as treasurer, Honest Johnny was SARCASM at its worst. I despise Abbott because he is hollow, Howard, as much as I disagreed with most of what he did, “believed” in what he did. Abbott believes only in Abbott and that scares me. He says he’s Catholic but his actions show he doesn’t believe in Catholicism.

  21. jv, it’s a compelling argument and there’s a good case that it is an issue the party should have a policy on. That still doesn’t preclude a conscience vote on the issue though. I don’t think members of any political party should be forced to vote in a particular way which is contrary to their personal beliefs. If their personal beliefs are repugnant to their electorate then they ought to be dealt with in due course.

  22. Leroy,

    Interesting article about the conservatives’ use of email rumour mills.

    It’s a very difficult task – to get people to vote against their own economic interests. Perhaps the conservatives conclude that the means justify the ends. Fair play won’t cut it, nor will arguing their case with logic, rationality or honesty. Hence we see typical conservative political behaviour, including:

    • Email rumour mills
    • Astro-turfing
    • Buy-out/takeover of news and media outlets, with which to propagate propaganda
    • Dirt files
    • Copious use of slogans, the more simplistic the better
    • Appeals to racism/xenophobia
    • The use of Right-Wing Projection to make their opponents look as bad as they, themselves (conservatives) are

    … Anything to manipulate the turkeys into voting for Christmas.

  23. Apart from whacking the right of the party over its wrecking strategy on gay marriage, Wong also poses the questions that the Rightariat cannot answer – becasue to do so would be to admit it’s religion:
    [Leaving aside all the noise in this debate, I believe it comes back to a simple proposition of equality. Is it reasonable to deny rights to some Australians only on the basis they are not heterosexual? Can we justify valuing a relationship less, in law and in practice, solely on the basis of the genders of the partners?]

    Read more:

  24. Good article in the Guardian.
    Obviously you will not read it in the Oz mordor media.

    [Freedom and responsibility go hand in hand. The tabloid press have enjoyed all the freedoms but exercise few of the responsibilities. If the freedom they loftily espouse is not to do with titillation and tawdry fascination and everything to do with exposing duplicity and corruption, why were they so slow to expose the whole hacking scandal or its questionable relationship with the Met police? Because it doesn’t suit their interests. I became involved in this saga because, apart from a few notable exceptions including this newspaper, no one was giving NI as hard a time as they give everyone else.

    The more sinister aspect of intrusion into people’s personal lives goes beyond respect for an individual’s right to privacy. It is used as a weapon against those who get in the way of News International.]

  25. ltep
    A ‘conscience’ vote is not a free vote in the factions of the Labor party. All it means is that the religious right will be ‘free’ to vote against change together with the LNP. There will no doubt be some right faction members who will actually be voting against their personal views (to the extent they have any left) by voting for the status quo, as they will be expected to do.

  26. Ta GG! A good, cheery read to brighten an already bright morning

    Oh, BTW, go and get………..

    Loved your King Parrot story, daretotread. This little corner of the Range is lousy with bird feeders & baths, appropriate trees and birds galore (plenty of kings – one shrieking squeaking-chalk-on-blackboard-like now), noisy rainbow lorrikeets, several types of rosellas. What I find odd is that some of our birds rarely cross the Range; same with some from the other side! One galah in almost 38 years & 0 sulphur-cresteds, 0 herons, 0 ibi, 0 cattle egrets (though it was a grazing area until quite recently). Yet just 2k away over the Range top, zillions!

    We’ve weird tree blooming patterns as they adjust to more normal rainfall after prolonged droughts and over a year’s swamping rain. Very few White Magnolia buds; energy seems to be going into rebuilding its canopy. I was hoping the Eastern spinebills would return. The Queen protea isn’t flowering, so no blue-faced honeyeaters who ‘pwned’ it years ago & make war even on crows – not another bird lands on it, even when the blue-faces aren’t there!. My 1986-planted miniature (‘nana’) conifers, still miniature in 2008/9, have forgotten they’re ‘nana’ & more than doubled in height, so the cross-valley view is green-walled off. I don’t mind. They’re home to shy insect-eating birds who prefer them to natives.

    Boring as Tory Central is, it’s still one of Oz’s most beautiful places to live.

  27. j.v

    It’s already been shown to you that the Right aren’t going to vote as a block, with Feeney – a man you yourself identified as one of the key players – stating publically he will vote for the legislation.

    But of course you can’t admit that, because it upsets your little theory.

    I repeat: why is all your venom directed at Labor? Without the support of at least some Liberal members, the legislation is doomed anyway, whether Labor votes as a bloc or votes as individuals.

    I know you have a trusting faith in the indies, and must confess I have no idea how they propose to vote, but are they all on side?


    From the NZ Herald

    [Greg Ansley: Abbott’s swipe during Obama welcome yet another black mark
    5:30 AM Saturday Nov 19, 2011

    Tony Abbott just couldn’t help himself. In the glow of the world’s most powerful man, Australia’s Opposition Leader defied convention this week to drag local politics into his parliamentary welcome to United States President Barack Obama.

    Abbott sideswiped Prime Minister Julia Gillard over her carbon and mining taxes, and smirked at her decision to reverse Labor policy and sell uranium to India.

    This was not Abbott’s first use of visiting leaders for domestic gain – he did the same during welcomes for New Zealand Prime Minister John Key in June and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono last year – but this was his most obvious.]

    More in the article. The Wall Street Journal a day or two ago mentioned the LOTO in their story on the speech as. He’s doing us proud.

  29. comfessions

    It was apparent yesterday morning that the authorities knew the fire was deliberately lit. Horrible.

    Although I was surprised to hear that water sprinklers were not installed on the premises an nor is it a requirement for nursing homes. not sure if this is just a NSW thing or Australia wide. But I find that incredible in itself.

  30. victoria:

    I was under the impression nursing home buildings are regulated under federal law, the Aged Care Act which the Howard govt introduced.

    Not absolutely certain though. It does seem strange that a sprinkler system wouldn’t be mandatory in a facility such as that.

  31. confessions

    One of the fire chiefs was asked about sprinklers at the presser yesterday, and his response was that the facility did not have them, nor is it a requirement for them to do so. I found it extraordinary to be honest

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