Clarence by-election live

9.34pm. All booths have reported primary vote results: Clarence Village Hall remains outstanding on 2PP, and I won’t be hanging around for it. As usual, by-elections offer something for everybody, but on balance this has to be rated an encouraging result for Labor – in nearly tripling their vote they have demonstrated greater long-term resilience of their support base than they might have feared after a state election that saw the defection of masses of voters who continue to identify with the party. However, a few qualifications need to be added. Labor worked very hard for this morale boost, after wholly neglecting Clarence at a state election which saw all their efforts dedicated to saving as many naturally safe seats as possible. Nationals leader Andrew Stoner has jibed that this is still Labor’s second worst performance ever in Clarence (not counting the one occasion when Labor contested the seat before its temporary abolition in the 1920s), although Labor might yet surpass that: they are currently on 28.82 per cent compared with 28.85 per cent in 1973 and 28.87 per cent in 1991. Antony Green notes this is the fifth biggest by-election swing in NSW since World War II; Labor boasts that it is the biggest by-election swing suffered in the state by the Nationals, although that’s a rather particular record for them to have set.

9.15pm. Fairly similar result to the 2007 election: Nats 52.9 and ALP 30.0, 61.7-38.3 on two-party.

9.02pm. Ten more booths added, only three more to come on the primary vote.

8.50pm. Preference splits better for Labor than at the election (24.2 per cent against 20.7 per cent), and about the same for the Nationals (23.8 per cent against 23.5 per cent).

8.43pm. 4158 pre-polls added.

8.37pm. “Looking like Labor’s 2nd worst result ever in Clarence”, says Andrew Stoner on Twitter. The current Labor primary vote is a fraction behind their vote in 1973 and 1991. They did worse on the one occasion when they fielded a candidate before the seat’s temporary abolition in the 1920s, polling 27.8 per cent in 1913.

8.25pm. Four more booths added.

8.02pm. Ten booths added on primary vote, and an exasperatingly huge number on 2PP.

7.31pm. Antony Green notes the Greens have won the Nymboida booth, which apparently isn’t a shock to those who know the area. Swing in Casino slightly above the average; no results yet from Grafton.

7.29pm. Actually six booths with 2PP results. Preferences are going 18.9 per cent to Labor, 15.6 per cent to Nationals and 65.6 per cent exhaust, compared with 20.7 per cent, 23.5 per cent and 55.8 per cent at the elections.

7.25pm. There are also 2PP results from three booths now, the preference splits for which have been applied across all 15 booths with primary votes recorded.

7.24pm. Thirteen booths irritatingly added all at once. Table updated.

6.51pm. Baryulgil has reported 2PP, and for what very little it’s worth, Labor got three preference votes and the Nationals one, with four exhausting. My 2PP projection continues to be based off the last election’s preference distribution.

6.42pm. The two booths are tiny Baryulgil (48 votes), located deep inland and far from the main population centres, and Brooms Head on the coast (135). The latter was not in operation at the previous election, and its result is derived from hiving votes from the nearby Gulmarrad.

6.40pm. Until we get notional two-party counts, I will be projecting the two-party result as per the result of the previous election. In the above table, primary vote figures are raw, but two-party and both swing measures are derived from booth matching.

6.38pm. Two small booths accounting for 183 formal votes added.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the Clarence by-election. Polls are now closed and this being an at least partly rural electorate, I expect the first results will be with us in about half an hour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe