| # | % | Swing | 2PP | Swing | |
| Walker | 799 | 2.2% | |||
| Ellem (ALP) | 10390 | 28.8% | 18.6% | 36.0% | 17.4% |
| Scott-Irving | 302 | 0.8% | |||
| Robinson (DEM) | 233 | 0.7% | |||
| Camac (CDP) | 739 | 2.0% | 0.2% | ||
| Gulaptis (NAT) | 20788 | 55.4% | -7.3% | 64.0% | -17.4% |
| Mead (ORP) | 901 | 2.6% | |||
| Cavanaugh (GRN) | 2654 | 7.4% | 0.6% | ||
| TOTAL | 36806 | ||||
| Booths counted | 44 out of 44 | ||||
| Votes counted | 73.3% of enrolled voters | ||||
9.34pm. All booths have reported primary vote results: Clarence Village Hall remains outstanding on 2PP, and I won’t be hanging around for it. As usual, by-elections offer something for everybody, but on balance this has to be rated an encouraging result for Labor – in nearly tripling their vote they have demonstrated greater long-term resilience of their support base than they might have feared after a state election that saw the defection of masses of voters who continue to identify with the party. However, a few qualifications need to be added. Labor worked very hard for this morale boost, after wholly neglecting Clarence at a state election which saw all their efforts dedicated to saving as many naturally safe seats as possible. Nationals leader Andrew Stoner has jibed that this is still Labor’s second worst performance ever in Clarence (not counting the one occasion when Labor contested the seat before its temporary abolition in the 1920s), although Labor might yet surpass that: they are currently on 28.82 per cent compared with 28.85 per cent in 1973 and 28.87 per cent in 1991. Antony Green notes this is the fifth biggest by-election swing in NSW since World War II; Labor boasts that it is the biggest by-election swing suffered in the state by the Nationals, although that’s a rather particular record for them to have set.
9.15pm. Fairly similar result to the 2007 election: Nats 52.9 and ALP 30.0, 61.7-38.3 on two-party.
9.02pm. Ten more booths added, only three more to come on the primary vote.
8.50pm. Preference splits better for Labor than at the election (24.2 per cent against 20.7 per cent), and about the same for the Nationals (23.8 per cent against 23.5 per cent).
8.43pm. 4158 pre-polls added.
8.37pm. “Looking like Labor’s 2nd worst result ever in Clarence”, says Andrew Stoner on Twitter. The current Labor primary vote is a fraction behind their vote in 1973 and 1991. They did worse on the one occasion when they fielded a candidate before the seat’s temporary abolition in the 1920s, polling 27.8 per cent in 1913.
8.25pm. Four more booths added.
8.02pm. Ten booths added on primary vote, and an exasperatingly huge number on 2PP.
7.31pm. Antony Green notes the Greens have won the Nymboida booth, which apparently isn’t a shock to those who know the area. Swing in Casino slightly above the average; no results yet from Grafton.
7.29pm. Actually six booths with 2PP results. Preferences are going 18.9 per cent to Labor, 15.6 per cent to Nationals and 65.6 per cent exhaust, compared with 20.7 per cent, 23.5 per cent and 55.8 per cent at the elections.
7.25pm. There are also 2PP results from three booths now, the preference splits for which have been applied across all 15 booths with primary votes recorded.
7.24pm. Thirteen booths irritatingly added all at once. Table updated.
6.51pm. Baryulgil has reported 2PP, and for what very little it’s worth, Labor got three preference votes and the Nationals one, with four exhausting. My 2PP projection continues to be based off the last election’s preference distribution.
6.42pm. The two booths are tiny Baryulgil (48 votes), located deep inland and far from the main population centres, and Brooms Head on the coast (135). The latter was not in operation at the previous election, and its result is derived from hiving votes from the nearby Gulmarrad.
6.40pm. Until we get notional two-party counts, I will be projecting the two-party result as per the result of the previous election. In the above table, primary vote figures are raw, but two-party and both swing measures are derived from booth matching.
6.38pm. Two small booths accounting for 183 formal votes added.
6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the Clarence by-election. Polls are now closed and this being an at least partly rural electorate, I expect the first results will be with us in about half an hour.
OC, I’m actually calculating really big (2PP) swings in Grafton – over 20%, including at the high school.
For a seat which before the March election was held by Nats, a TPP result which is similar to the 2011 statewide election TPP is a relative Labor victory.
I take it back it looks like more than a 20% swing at Grafton HS on 2pp!
The ALP will be happy with those Grafton stats. A returning Blue Collar vote.
We would know the result of a State Election by now.
I guess the independent vote has gone almost exclusively to Labor – as Labor was allegedly running dead to help the independent in March it raises the question of which swing is more significant. The 2pp in March was somewhat artificial because Labor came third
The ALP PV in 2007 was 30%
Sad performance of the Australian Democrats noted by Antony Green.
Well, if the ALP 2011 TPP in Clarence was artifical, what was the fair figure?
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Clarence NAT Primary after 30 booths: 57.8 (-5.0) #nswpol #auspol
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Clarence 2PP after 30 booths: NAT 65.9 (-15.5) ALP 34.1 (+15.5) #nswpol #auspol
37 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
Not a great result for the Greens, who are treading water despite 17% of the vote from an absent independent being up for grabs.
I guess it could be said that the Labor PV has gone a fair way back to the 2007 level – which has to be a good result considering how toxic they were in March
Terrible result for the Greens.
Libs should have contested the seat. They might have won it.
A hypothetical ALP 2011 state election TPP in Clarence might be:
(ALP 2007 state election TPP in Clarence) – (2011 Statewide TPP swing)
38.4 – 16.5 = 21.9
vs the notional figure of 18.6, there is not a signficant difference
[Libs should have contested the seat. They might have won it.]
??
Dee
THe Nats and Libs have a handshake agreement (at least in the Fed sphere) that when a sitting member loses their seat the other party can run in a three cornered contest.
In polls the Nats only get around 50% of what they get in elections indicating that many regional people would rather a Lib candidate.
So its a ~6% primary swing against the Govt in a by-election seat with a huge margin. Nothing unusual.
I bet the Sunday rags will have special sauce tomorrow.
[In polls the Nats only get around 50% of what they get in elections indicating that many regional people would rather a Lib candidate.]
I think many regional people can’t tell the difference – I certainly can’t
bg
Perhaps I take the simplistic pov.
If you are a conservative voter what difference would it make?
Libs or Nats, same deal!
“Looking like Labor’s 2nd worst result ever in Clarence”, says Andrew Stoner on Twitter. The current Labor primary vote is a fraction behind their vote in 1973 and 1991. They did worse on the one occasion when they fielded a candidate before the seat’s temporary abolition in the 1920s, polling 27.8 per cent in 1913.
One of life’s great mysteries – why on earth do people vote National? If the Coalition is in government they ignore Nats seats because they are safe, if Labor is in government they ignore Nats seats because – well – they are Nats. Why waste time and money on a bunch of conservative-voting hillbillies. In a National electorate nothing good ever happens. I speak from sad experience. I’ve lived in a few National electorates where, every time, you get taken for granted. If shit has to be dished out we are the ones who cop it. Up here in Port Macquarie that meant having the public hospital taken away and repplaced with a disastrous private/public experiment that failed. Gee, thanks Nick Greiner, now given another chance to stuff the state. It took an independent Rob Oakeshott to get that hospital back into public hands.
With a Coalition government guess who will be the first to be shafted – no prizes for answering National electorates. The good folks of Port Macquarie believed the Nats lies and after being deluged with millions of dollars worth of National Party advertising ditched a hard-working independent, Pete Besseling, for a National Party stooge, Leslie Williams, whio has proved herself to be less use than tits on a bull, It looks like the same thing will happen again in Clarence. What a bunch of fools! When are people going to work out that a National MP is worse than useless.
William – for most people who have never heard of Andrew Stoner – might be worth noting he is the Nationals leader in NSW. The Gnats – always looking for someone to annoy.
Dee,
Clarence used to be a dairy/forestry electorate. Now it is a seachange one. THere are a lot of people that would happily vote nat but not lib and vice versa.
Dee,
Clarence used to be a dairy/forestry electorate. Now it is a seachange one. THere are a lot of people that would happily vote nat but not lib and vice versa.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Clarence 2PP after 39 booths: NAT 64.7 (-16.7) ALP 35.3 (+16.7) #nswpol #auspol
50 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
bg
Haven’t seen you around the blogs for awhile.
How have you been?
do these results mean a return to 2007? ALP won then
[ GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Clarence Primaries after all booths counted: NAT 56.5 (-6.3) ALP 28.2 (+18.0) GRN 7.2 (+0.3) #nswpol #auspol
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
Mick,
It’s a by-election so the swing can’t be extrapolated across the state at full value. The usual rule of thumb is that the a full election swing is either 1/3rd or 1/2 the by election swing.
What the results do mean is in the areas where the ALP runs proper campaigns in NSW going forward in state elections, they will get a significant bounce-back from their 2011 election results in areas where they did not run proper campaigns before.
The Greens must be bitterly disappointed. These communities rely heavily on the Greens to do the heavy lifting on their behalf in campaigns against CSG.
Turn out was only 72.6%. Most people knew it was a foregone conclusion, so they thought they’d risk a fine?
docantk – there will bre postal votes and pre-polling that boosts that figure.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Clarence 2PP after all booths counted: NAT 64.9 (-16.5) ALP 35.1 (+16.5) #nswpol #auspol
]
Thanks Leone: should get turn out to around 80%. Still miraculous only 8 months after a state election!
How can this be one of the worst results ever for Labor in this electorate when there’s a swing TO Labor of almost 19%?
Anthony Green thinks the final turnout will be in the high 80’s.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/clarence/commentary.htm
Cuppa – Labor’s March result was worse than a debacle! 10% primary vote says it all really. Today returns Labor to where it was at the 2007 general election, more or less. Stoner’s comment may be factually correct, but who cares. It was a good result tonight for a very demoralised State Labor Party and is an encouraging sign of the party’s resilience after its near annihilation in March.
With prepolls already counted, mainly postals to come (no absents) it would be surprising if vote got above 80%. But usual vote only about 93 so not too bad.
Thanks for that explanation, Outsider. I’d agree with you: in the context of what happened at the last State election a strong rebound by Labor is hardly a disastrous result. Let’s hope some spirits have been lifted and the will to soldier on fortified.
[Today returns Labor to where it was at the 2007 general election, more or less]
Sorry if I’m being obtuse, but Labor won in 2007 didn’t it? Can they really have bounced back that much?
Andrew Stoner couldn’t lie straight in bed, take anything he says with many grains of salt. Stoner claimed the credit for obtaining $96 million worth of federal funding for Port Macquarie hospital after Rob Oakeshott did a deal with Julian Gillard for the money. For someone who likes to make a fuss about his Christian beliefs Stoner sure tells a lot of porkies.
This is one of the biggest swings away from the Nats [..on paper Clarence is the 5th biggest by-election swing since the war, beaten by Penrith (2010 25.7%), Ryde (2008 23.1%), Cabramatta (2008 17.5%) and Bass Hill (1996 17.5%), and on a par with Rockdale (1986 14.5%) and Coffs Harbour (1990 16.0%).]
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/clarence/commentary.htm
You won’t get Stoner to mention that though.
I thought I knew this area pretty well (grandparents used to live in Iluka so I’ve been up around there many, many times) and I’ve never even heard of Nymboida before now!
Darn you don’t want to extrapolate too much from a byelection result in a safe conservative seat! But the 2PP today in Clarence is very similar to the Clarence result in 2007. Read into that what you will, but I’d say todays been a pretty good day for Labor and a pretty lousy one for BOF. Because, as you point out, Labor was comfortably elected to Government in 2007!
Just received this email from the LOOT:
Dear (here he uses my birth name rather than the name I am called),
Historic swing in Clarence by-election
Voters in the Clarence have sent a strong message to the O’Farrell Government tonight, delivering a 19 per cent primary vote swing towards Labor in the Clarence by-election.
Labor achieved the largest 2PP swing against the National Party in a by-election ever recorded.
Tonight’s result is the first step on the long road back for Labor.
Labor ran a back-to-basics campaign in the Clarence, on issues that matter to working people.
Voters have said no to privatisation, no to service cuts, no to cuts to the Police Death and Disability Scheme and no to the rampant expansion of the Coal Seam Gas industry in Northern NSW.
Tonight’s result proves that when Labor listens to the community and works hard to earn their trust, voters will respond.
Labor has performed better in this by-election than anyone could have expected only eight months after the devastating state election loss.
It is because of the tireless efforts of Country Labor Candidate, Peter Ellem, Country Organiser, Courtney Roche and branch members from across this state like you, that we were able to achieve this historic result.
I look forward to working with you as we continue to take the fight right to the O’Farrell Government.
John Robertson
Leader of the Opposition
Kevin
Nymboida is in the high hinterland of the Clarence. It is noted for its rapids and the excellent rafting/kayaking.
Nymboida’s also known for its ‘Russell Crowe’ Museum of Interesting Things …
Seems to me that the spinning of the result from both government and opposition sources is contrived and unconvincing and all that leaves is that both Nats and Labor performed reasonably in the circumstances while the Greens’ result was rather poor.
here he uses my birth name rather than the name I am called
That is one impressive birth name, I can see why you have shortened it 😉
HAHA!
but it annoys me when someone writes me a letter like they are my best friend and they don’t know my name