Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.

Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.

UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,070 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [spur212
    Posted Monday, November 21, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Gorgeous Dunny

    They don’t update the Newspoll on The Australian website until about a day or two after it’s released]

    LOL! Well, that would explain why no change. Thought I was on to a scoop.

  2. BB @ 1981

    [Meanwhile, Annabel Crabb and Katherine Murphy aregiggling and wetting their knickers down at the bus stop because they think Tony smiled at them.]

    They, along with Grattan and Savva, are the ‘mean girls’ who have decided that Julia is too smart by half, and needs to be cut down to size.

    Abbott, swaggering around like the school jock who gets the girls attention at the expense of the geeks and nerds, epitomises the empty-headed and muscle-bound athlete who overcompensates because of feelings of inferiority, and who bullies others and sucks up to the teacher, in this case his mentor, Alan Jones.

    This sort of schoolyard farce is what now passes for political discourse in our nation. It is unsurprising that Abbott, representing as he does the inner bogan lurking within the nation’s current dysfunctional political landscape, manifests all of the schoolyard bully traits and weaknesses, and equally unsurprising that so much of the puerile and sophomoric level of current affairs reporting is presented in such dumbed down terms that a teenager would be best qualified to pen such drivel and to comprehend its high school standard of analysis.

  3. [Nicola Roxon, the health and ageing minister, called the new law “an example for the world to follow”.]
    Well, we’re all ageing.

  4. So what’s the news – Labor’s a bit lower on 2PP but Gillard is a bit ahead on PPM?

    Basically statistical noise, then.

  5. This reminds me of DavidWH quoting non existant Essential Leader Approval ratings, when he’s actually scrolled too low and was reading 14 Nov.

    Read the dates guys!

  6. [Do you reckon Van ONselen has been on the booze tonight. Seems a bit over the top.]

    They have a paywalled online paper to spruik! 🙂

  7. [spur212
    Posted Monday, November 21, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink
    Gorgeous Dunny

    They don’t update the Newspoll on The Australian website until about a day or two after it’s released]

    …and more to the point, they dont update the Newspoll site itself at all any more it seems. The last federal poll on their webpage is from October…

  8. confessions – if they have reverted to the rubbish that PVO has carried on with tonight then I don’t think the paywall is going to succeed. If it was a very junior journo doing the spruiking in the same way I could understand it but an academic …. whoo! fancy studying with him.

  9. [The Magical Liopleurodon
    Posted Monday, November 21, 2011 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    oh fuck, I got trolled hard, that link is from a year ago 😛


    The good news is that I don’t feel so bad about my stuffup now!

  10. Nothing like Newspoll Eve on Poll Bludger LOL

    My prediction:
    Coalition 54
    ALP 46

    Julia leads Budgie Smuggler as preferred PM.

  11. if you cant trust a dolphin, who can you trust?

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @StGusface @frankscan65 Gussie, we always knew it was going to be 52-48 with the PPM shooting up for the PM and crashed for Abbott #auspol
    2 minutes ago

  12. Despite the fact I don’t like much about the The Australian or PvO, I can see why he takes the mickey. Ghost has been having a laugh for ages, and PvO is winding up all those who used the leaked info. The general readership are in bed right now, so he’s not doing the brand any harm. I still don’t like him though.

  13. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Haddin is going to play the best inning of his life and win it for Australia

  14. You’re all falling for the Newspoll Myth Of Infallibility.

    It’s just another poll. You’re being gamed. PvO is spot-on with this one.

    In-house numbers drummed up with a bit of attention to statistics, but more important as a lever News can use to spin dozens of stories.

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