Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.

Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.

UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,070 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Shows: Abbott’s MO over his entire time as LOTO is to run down the Australian economy as much as he can.

    What else has he got? He can’t deal with the reality; with the TRUTH. That wouldn’t work at all. His only option, if he wants to make any political mileage, is to lie through his teeth.

    Liar, liar, pants on fire. He knows it; we know it; his colleagues know it too. Why do you think they keep having to play budget catch-up?

    Hockey and Robb must be ready to kill him by now given the depth of financial doo-doo he has landed them with all his ill-costed and reckless promises. The man seriously has no idea … or just doesn’t give a fuck either way.

    This is precisely why he isn’t – and never will be – PM material. No policy substance; no philosophical position beyond what will win the latest popularity contest and no intellectual rigour in any case.

    A full-on soft cock … and he knows it. No wonder he is so comfortable doing budgie-smuggler wearing to-camera pieces about cold water.

    Sometimes the obvious is so undeniable you have to articulate it if you don’t want people to think you are totally divorced from reality …

  2. [big fat winky smiley]

    I’d love to float in and give you all one of those. BK and I could reminisce about great times dancing the night away at a certain place he worked at and Dio could tell me just how decrepit the RAH probably still is. Just jokin’.

    We’re heading over there next year sometime.

    I hope the PM’s new media bloke is on to Abbott pretty quickly and before the MSM decides to tell us all that he’s taken their advice and is now positive and definitely an alternative leader. I love the way Tony Windsor always praises the PM when he gets the chance. Must get Abbott and Julie Bishop stireed up.

  3. Fess — I don’t know anyone who didn’t roll their eyes when Abbott stood up.

    The content was its usual ridiculous projections and misinformation. The man has serious problems if not mentally, certainly psychologically.

  8. [I love the way Tony Windsor always praises the PM when he gets the chance. Must get Abbott and Julie Bishop stireed up.]

    Wilkie and Oakeshott also praised her today.

    Wilkie said “I trust this govt” and I was very pleased to hear it.

  9. As I’ve said many times, I think Ghost’s source on the Newspoll has gone dead.

    Which is why PvO is repeatedly mentioning it on twitter

  10. [The content was its usual ridiculous projections and misinformation.]

    I had him on mute after a couple of sentences. No way I wanted to frighten the dogs with that screeching and hysteria!

  11. [I find your comments to be incisive and on the mark. I am particularly impressed with the way you can pick the wood despite the trees. ]

    likewise, Puff. I always enjoy Carey’s posts. I’m afraid I’m with him tonight on the 1/2 glass full thing re newspoll. I’ve got everything crossed but only because I can’t bear the thought of the smug journo smiles tomorrow if Labor is dropping too far again.

  13. [vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    Why the assumption it’s bad for Labor? Where is the #GhostWhoVotes when you need him! LOL]

    LOL? Why LOL?

    Agree with spur212. GWV has been taken out of the Newspoll leak stuff.

  17. [ vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    Why the assumption it’s bad for Labor? Where is the #GhostWhoVotes when you need him! LOL

    LOL? Why LOL?

    Agree with spur212. GWV has been taken out of the Newspoll leak stuff.]

    PVO has got an increased idea of his own prominence. He likes to shit stir. It’s a SKY thing.

  19. Kensington? Finns and I can make Kensington and we won’t even tell Thornleigh Evan!!

    whoops… bad luck Finns, we’re in the wrong State.

  20. Just heard Laura Tingle on LNL with Philip Adams.

    She says Coalition backbenchers are questioning Abbott’s approach on the carbon tax. They think it’s leaving him exposed and looking like a one issue leader. Very interesting

  21. [sspencer_63 Stephen Spencer
    @
    @vanOnselenP gravity. 5 consecutive Newspoll improvements got to have a correction somewhere]

    So Laborites are resigning themselves to a Newspoll improvement to the coalition.

    This will be the 2nd last Newspoll for the year, as I understand it from Mumble. The coalition will be hoping for a good one. At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter for Labor as it has its legislative output continuing apace.

  22. Abbott was speaking to a bunch of supposedly intelligent people. How he manages to carry an air of credulity when he is clearly a mental ‘plodder’ without inspiration is beyond me.

    I’m beginning to think that he has managed to turn people off so much their brains have followed suit.

  25. Okay … fading fast.

    Might need to see all you Bludgers on the other side of the fence.

    ‘night all, and behave yourselves {winky smiley}

  26. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    “#Newspoll’s O’Shannessy reviews the results that see Gillard’s popularity increase but labor’s approval fall.” bit.ly/uVa0Hx #auspol
    40 seconds ago

  28. [Sydney institute]

    thanks Jen – no wonder Henderson was praising Abbott on Sunday. He needed a crowd there tonight. I won’t bother to catch it on Apac later.

  30. [“#Newspoll’s O’Shannessy reviews the results that see Gillard’s popularity increase but labor’s approval fall.” bit.ly/uVa0Hx #auspol]

    Ghostie

  31. [Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy reviews the latest results that see Julia Gillard’s popularity increase but labor’s approval fall.]

    So PBers who called an increase in 2PP to LNP, but decline in Abbott ratings were correct.

  33. BH,
    I imagine we are going to get some up and down in the polls. At the moment the big changes are almost all in. That is the bit of uncertainty upsetting everyone, imo and jiggling the polls.

    We could be enjoying this era as a major national adventure, the kind of vibe there must have been when ‘federated’ or built the railways, the Snowy Mountains Scheme or the Sydney Harbour Bridge. But no, the msm has everyone so afraid of their own shadows, so the populace is shaking like a big fat Terra Australis jelly.

  35. [We could be enjoying this era as a major national adventure, the kind of vibe there must have been when ‘federated’ or built the railways, the Snowy Mountains Scheme or the Sydney Harbour Bridge. But no, the msm has everyone so afraid of their own shadows, so the populace is shaking like a big fat Terra Australis jelly.]

    And the MSM is so obsessed with their BS narratives about TEH POLLS and the test of looking ‘prime ministerial’ that they ignore what’s going on except when it relates to said polls. Its not if a carbon price is a smart reform, its that its unpopular at the moment… or it doesn’t matter that Labor is getting a ton of difficult things done in tough circumstances, its that the Coalition is more popular, and Kevin Rudd is ‘Mr. Popular’, or some other crap.

  36. Told ya – Labor has been fighting about a couple of issues. The voters hate left/right fights in Labor. The Libs infighting is mostly behind closed doors. Notice that the Libs didn’t go public about Robb being left out of the superannuation vote. It was only noted in the media.

    Labor pollies can’t help themselves and the disagreements have been very public.

  37. [Labor pollies can’t help themselves and the disagreements have been very public.]

    Hopefully they’ll go quieter again after the conference next month. I do like that Gillard’s attitude towards it has been that she wants proper debates, rather than airbrushed photo op crap.

  40. rishane
    It’s like one of those usa tv shows about teenage girls at high school, all trying to get into the cheerleader squad. Who gives a stuff about the chemistry marks, as long as the nail polish matches the pom-poms?

  41. [We could be enjoying this era as a major national adventure, the kind of vibe there must have been when ‘federated’ or built the railways, the Snowy Mountains Scheme or the Sydney Harbour Bridge. But no, the msm has everyone so afraid of their own shadows, so the populace is shaking like a big fat Terra Australis jelly.]

    Well put, Puffy. That’s the pity of it all.

  42. [rishane
    It’s like one of those usa tv shows about teenage girls at high school, all trying to get into the cheerleader squad. Who gives a stuff about the chemistry marks, as long as the nail polish matches the pom-poms?]

    Hahaha, nice analogy. I assume Gillard is the studious one who gets ignored in the school newspaper because she’s less popular than captain of the football team Tony Abbott? 😉

  49. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @StGusface @frankscan65 @Pollytics Gussie, they try to “adjust” the numbers at the last minutes so it is a win-win
    1 minute ago

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