Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.

Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.

UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,070 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @GhostWhoVotes Ghostie, Ghostie, Wherefore Art Thou, Ghostie #auspol
    1 minute ago

  2. Regardless of how the Liberals / media spin the results, it is a fact that Newspoll is not without its proportion of rogues. So a dramatic movement in either direction could very likely be a product of one. Or not.

  3. [So tweeps, what has to happen in the Newspoll to make the final sitting week a happy one for Gillard? #auspol]

    It will be a good one then

  4. [So tweeps, what has to happen in the Newspoll to make the final sitting week a happy one for Gillard? #auspol]

    My answer to that has nothing to do with Newspolls. I’d say give Abbott the week off and let Bishop sit in the OL’s chair or something. Anything to stop the extremely childish (even more than traditionally in parliament) games that Abbott plays in parliament.

  5. [Yes, I agree. They (esp Pyne) know that he won’t enforce a higher standard of behaviour, and so carry on with their behaviour regardless. ]
    What an astonishing thing to write! Jenkins has warned named, formally warned, or suspended Pyne from the House something like 40 times in the last 4 years.

    In one sitting week in 2009 he suspended Pyne from the House for 24 hours EVERY DAY!

  7. [Something tells me it’s gonna be a horrible one.]

    Hope you’re wrong, Carey, but after Essential today I fear you may be on the money with that comment.

    rishane – Grattan will be wallowing in love and admiration for Abbott on RN tomorrow. She is not deterred by anything stupid he says or does – just gives him a little tap with a feather duster and brushes it off as Tone being Tone!

  10. The other possibility, is PvO’s “check it out!” is of something narrower, like a 50-50 or even Labor leading poll. But I won’t hold my breath at all and will remain pessimistic.

  11. So I was foolish enough to read Abbott’s speech and noticed that his favourite weasel word (‘in good time’) shows up near the end…

    [The Coalition will deliver personal income tax cuts and a fair deal for pensioners without a carbon tax.

    We will deliver company tax cuts without a mining tax.

    This will require significant cuts to government spending.

    This won’t be easy but it is achievable and it will be spelt out, in detail, in good time before the election.]

    Its also sad that Obama in America uses the same inaccurate ‘its like family debt’ description that Abbott does here.

  12. The reason the Abbottariat are obsessed with polls this week are because they are jittery over Abbott’s leadership, the recent polls showing a move towards Gillard/Labor, and it being the final sitting week of parliament for the year.

    That’s the ONLY reason Newspoll is being hyped.

  13. [Anything to stop the extremely childish (even more than traditionally in parliament) games that Abbott plays in parliament.]
    Gillard doesn’t need favours of this sort. She can handle Abbott sitting in the opposition leader’s chair.

  15. [Gillard doesn’t need favours of this sort. She can handle Abbott sitting in the opposition leader’s chair.]

    But I must imagine it just gives one a headache sometimes. Not in a “OMG! He’s getting to me!” way but more a “Oh for goodness sake, give it a rest!” way.

  16. [Its also sad that Obama in America uses the same inaccurate ‘its like family debt’ description that Abbott does here.]
    I agree. If governments have too much debt they can at least direct the central bank to print money.

    If a family tried printing money, they would get in trouble with the law.

  17. [But I must imagine it just gives one a headache sometimes. Not in a “OMG! He’s getting to me!” way but more a “Oh for goodness sake, give it a rest!” way.]
    Abbott’s worst enemy is Abbott. Gillard has been on song in QT since the Qantas dispute. I think she has enjoyed going on the attack after having to defend the Clean Energy bills for the last few months.

  18. [SteveCannane Steve Cannane
    Two couriers have told me #Qantas booked couriers to deliver lockout notices days before decision to ground fleet. More on #lateline 1030pm]

  20. [The other possibility, is PvO’s “check it out!” is of something narrower, like a 50-50 or even Labor leading poll. But I won’t hold my breath at all and will remain pessimistic.]
    I expected a bit of a bounce one the clean energy bills went through.

    There’s some people in the community who have absolutely no idea about the merits of the legislation, but they just like it when a politician says they will do something and then actually achieves it.

    That is one reason Rudd’s polls tanked after he shelved the CPRS; some people were pissed off that he said it was really important, but then seemingly walked away from it. Some voters just vote for the politician that talks about something alot AND THEN follows through and gets it done. They don’t really care about the merits of the actual policy. This helped Howard in 2001, he crapped on about the GST then actually implemented it.

  21. [SteveCannane Steve Cannane
    Two couriers have told me #Qantas booked couriers to deliver lockout notices days before decision to ground fleet. More on #lateline 1030pm]
    Great, let’s see this get a run in QT tomorrow via a dixer.

  22. Carey,
    Are you aware there is a PB get together this Friday? Scorps is coming to Adelaide and we are going to have a munch and quaff. Email bk via Bilbo if you want in and can make it.

  25. There’s actually some choice info in Abbott’s Sydney Institute speech, like this:
    [There’s no doubt that the China boom has sustained Australia’s economic success over the past decade.]
    http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/Speeches/tabid/88/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8465/Address-to-The-Sydney-Institute-Sydney.aspx?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
    What an interesting admission. I can remember being lectured for years that Australia’s economic success was due to John Howard and Peter Costello being economic geniuses. I’m glad that Abbott has finally revealed that Howard and Costello had things easy thanks to China’s demand for our coal and iron ore.

  26. Ooops. Better put on our flack jackets

    [The International Monetary Fund has confirmed this morning that Hungary has formally asked for ‘precautionary’ financial help.

    In a brief statement, the IMF said it had received a request from Budapest for “possible financial assistance”. This follows days of rumour, with the Hungarian authorities insisting last week that IMF officialy were only in the country for routine talks – before confirming on Friday night that it was seeking an agreement with the IMF.]

  27. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, November 21, 2011 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    Since becoming opposition leader, I’ve said “no” to a carbon tax because I say “yes” to affordable power.

    I’ve said “no” to a mining tax because I say “yes” to investment and jobs in our strongest industry.

    I’ve said “no” to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines because I say “yes” to more effective counselling and “yes” to a less intrusive nanny state.

    From Abbott’s speech tonight. starting to polish out these YES lines to try and deflect the Dr No image.]

    That’s very clearly what he is attempting, but it’s so obviously just bull with language it won’t mean anything. 40 years ago, Billy McMahon was in trouble as PM. Market research people apparently came up with him being perceived as “too indecisive” in making decisions.

    So with almost every presser for a while after that, Billy went to some lengths to emphasise to reporters that he “was decisive” in coming to that action.

    It didn’t convince anyone.

  28. [PTMD. I dunno, I am a bit shy. Especially with such intellectual giants as yourselves.]

    Puuuffyyyyyyyy? nah, she is just a very naughty girl.

  29. [That’s very clearly what he is attempting, but it’s so obviously just bull with language it won’t mean anything. 40 years ago, Billy McMahon was in trouble as PM. Market research people apparently came up with him being perceived as “too indecisive” in making decisions. ]

    They’re also extremely easy to contradict for anyone who puts more than a couple of seconds of thought into it. And his point about the mining tax contradicts the opening of his speech where he says the boom won’t last forever and something should be done for after it. Clever policy idea there…

  30. [I can remember being lectured for years that Australia’s economic success was due to John Howard and Peter Costello being economic geniuses]

    Probably the most concerted and successful spin campaign in the history of Australian politics was the one that convinced millions to believe without question that Howard/Costello/Coalition were superior economic managers. The Coalition and their media allies worked together with common purpose to manipulate the public. Even up till this very day the line is still routinely trotted out on blogs, stalkback radio and the like.

  31. Intellectual giants, Carey! Gawd, they’re only South Aussies like you with names like Puffy, BK (alias Fireman Fred), Dr Dio, etc. – you’ll run rings around them, mate. Go for it and enjoy yourself.

    Wish I was over there myself. We NSWites will have to get our act together at some stage.

  32. [I’ve said “no” to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines because I say “yes” to more effective counselling and “yes” to a less intrusive nanny state.]

    Saying yes to empty cliches is just idiotic. All it does is remind listeners that he is famous for saying NO. He must really think the electorate are stupid. Abbott has become synonymous with NO. What is trying to do now? Turn himself into NOT REALLY……what a mess he is.

  33. Well in these days of volatile financial markets it seems somehow less, but for those interested, EU equity markets have basically tanked on opening, down over 2%.

    Time, therefore, for Mr Sandman for moi

  34. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Yes, yes, yes, yes, Dr. No, No, No, No tag is hurting Tony Abbott #auspol
    27 seconds ago

  36. [But I must imagine it just gives one a headache sometimes. Not in a “OMG! He’s getting to me!” way but more a “Oh for goodness sake, give it a rest!” way.]

    She’s been giving him that look for many months!

  38. You’ve got to admit that Abbott does rhetoric well.

    In a part of his speech he starts quoting the size of deficits various countries have relative to GDP. He notes in Greece it is 8%, the UK over 8%, Italy 4%.

    Of course he is going to hit us with the punch line that Australia has has recently ran at a deficit too, but of course for this year it is something like 1.5% of GDP which doesn’t sound that big, so he shifts the goal posts to “cumulative budget deficits” of 4%

    He never defines exactly what this means, but I suspect it means over the last 3 financial years.

    So our budget deficits, including the worst part of the GFC, comes to Italy’s deficit this year. Or half of the deficit of Greece and the UK this year.

    Why it makes sense comparing the deficits in three or four years for Australia with the budget deficit in a single year for those other countries he never bothers to explain.

    Could it be he is trying to make Australia look as bad as he possibly can?

  39. Good one, Finns – thanks. Hope PVO gets the message. I haven’t felt a thing by not looking at the OO articles linked since the trial paywall went up. It’s quite calming.

  40. BH: it may be called the “South Australian Chapter Get-together”, but I didn’t see anything in the rules that stops anyone else from hopping on a plane/train/car and getting their arses over here in time for mid-afternoon on Friday

    {big fat winky smiley}

  41. [That’s very clearly what he is attempting, but it’s so obviously just bull with language it won’t mean anything. 40 years ago, Billy McMahon was in trouble as PM. Market research people apparently came up with him being perceived as “too indecisive” in making decisions.

    So with almost every presser for a while after that, Billy went to some lengths to emphasise to reporters that he “was decisive” in coming to that action.]

    Spin, spin, spin.

    I expect the msm to start chipping the coalition for its reliance on focus groups any time now.

    *end sarcasm*

  42. vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    Why the assumption it’s bad for Labor? Where is the #GhostWhoVotes when you need him! LOL
    40 seconds ago

  44. Carey,
    We would love to meet you, and you certainly hold your own on PB. I find your comments to be incisive and on the mark. I am particularly impressed with the way you can pick the wood despite the trees.

    I assure you, I have ‘PB courage’ but can be shy in person, especially o;when I don’t know people. I prefer to write as I can express myself better that way.

    So if you are about on Friday arvo, you are welcome to drop in and say hello.

  46. [Drag0nista Drag0nista
    Anyone notice that the @cefgovau Clean Energy bills got Royal Assent today? They are now L.A.W.]

    *toasts the achievement*

  49. [ Drag0nista Drag0nista
    Anyone notice that the @cefgovau Clean Energy bills got Royal Assent today? They are now L.A.W.

    *toasts the achievement*]

    Which begs the question – why the censure this arvo?

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