Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [rishane

    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    The point is that Labor has made a big lurch in the last year.

    So its all code for LURCH TO TEH RIGHT? (I know you’re not one of these people, but a surprising amount of people have used that as the foundation of a left-wing Kevin Rudd martyr myth) Maybe your thesis would have more validity if a minority government hadn’t happened, but the thing is that it did, and Gillard’s been taking more chances in response to that.
    ]

    You mean those same so-called “Progrsssives” who were complaining when Rudd was elected leader that he was a mini John Howard ?

  2. Bushfire

    [I am slightly color blind and Her Indoors uses this mercilessly against me when it comes to picking colors, as in…]
    It’s genetic. Those with a y chromosome only perceive colours that are in the rainbow.
    Don’t even think about shades 😆

  4. Question out of left field:

    Does anyone have internal aluminium shutters on their windows and do they keep out both heat and cold from a room?

  5. William Bowe:

    Has my comment re. “Outsider” been relegated?

    If so, arguably judicious but somewhat arbitrary.

    I’ll reserve judgment until the matter is clarified.

  7. Evening bludgers…

    I see Keating has added his name to a number of former ALP luminaries to criticise the current government.

    Am I right that the following are part of this list (from memory only):
    Latham
    Keating
    Iemma
    Faulkner
    Carr
    Costa
    Bligh

  10. Thanks Victoria (2246) I was suffering from computer withdrawal , was even reduced to watching more TV!!! Will be more careful in future

  12. mtbw,

    We have external aluminium roller shutters on our windows (am in France). They do reduce the heat and cold in a room. We have double glazing and the shutters add another cushion of air between the exterior and the windows.

  13. modlib

    [I see Keating has added his name to a number of former ALP luminaries to criticise the current government.]

    PJK was being helpfull

  14. Mob Lib,

    I take that list with a grain of salt.

    Latham – epic failure
    Iemma – NSW fail
    Costa – NSW fail
    Bligh – QLD fail

    I would not be taking advice from these Labor clowns ether.

  17. [PJK was being helpfull]

    I would say “himself” rather than “helpful”!

    He certainly likes to make a stir doesn’t he?

  20. mod, fyi

    [Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    All Blacks will win the #RWC2011 at home again. It never be considered a great team unless they win the #RWC away from home
    7 minutes ago ]

  22. One of the better responses to a haka…

    After listening to possibly the world’s best and worst national anthems back to back!

  24. Thanks Vic and Lizzie

    I have a large window in the front of my house and do have canvas roll down awnings on the exterior but they darken the the room when fully extended. The Northerly morning aspect of the sun is having a big effect on the fabrics in the room. I thought the adjustable controls of the internal Aluminium shutters would give me light with some protection. I can then lower the canvas awnings outside when it is really bad. Decisions decisions!

  25. [It’s also worth noting that a double dissolution election needn’t take long to procure. All it takes is legislation being defeated twice.

    There is no need to wait for the newly elected senators to take their places in July of the following year. The whole process could be completed in less that a year. No one who knows Abbott well doubts his determination to deliver on his promise to defeat the carbon tax.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/global-recession-the-last-nail-in-carbon-tax-coffin/story-e6frgd0x-1226173452717
    Pearson should be sodomised with the constitution.

  26. Evening bludgers…

    [I see Keating has added his name to a number of former ALP luminaries to criticise the current government.

    Am I right that the following are part of this list (from memory only):
    Latham
    Keating
    Iemma
    Faulkner
    Carr
    Costa
    Bligh]

    Your point is?

    Other, that is, to besmirch the Labor brand.

  29. ruawake
    [I don’t want progressives anywhere near the Treasury Benches, thank you very much.

    What will we ban next, what program will we use to mould people to our will, what the …

    The Labor Party is not a progressive party. When will people understand this?]

    If the party’s faction bosses think like that – and I fear the right-wing do – then a majority Labor government will be a rare thing. That is, unless and until fundamental reform of the party has led to self-serving, power-for-its own-sake, centrist types being purged; and a new structure brings fresh ideas in and opens the party up. It cannot survive as a pale imitation of the LNP under our voting system. If we had PR a Liberal-clone Labor could maybe get enough support to form a coalition with the Greens, if the Greens were interested in governing with such a party.

  31. jv

    You can have your progressivism, not for me. Do you understand the loss of freedom that the Greens interpretation of progressivism really entails?

  32. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    The Froggies are matching the Sheeppen Shaggers so far #RWC2011
    8 seconds ago

  34. [ruawake

    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    jv

    You can have your progressivism, not for me. Do you understand the loss of freedom that the Greens interpretation of progressivism really entails?
    ]

    He and his Equine buddy have no clue atm – THeirv Stuffing up of One Vote One Value in the Upper House ensred the WA Nats got the Balance of Power.

  35. Is this the same French side we have been watching for the past 6 weeks? What’s going on? Must have about 60% of the ball so far and as the Kiwi commentator just said, they’re playing all the rugby! Early days…

  36. Keating said exactly the same thing when interviewed by Kerry OB in 2009, he said it again today because his book is being serialised in the Murdoch Press.

    He should go off and polish his clocks.

  41. [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/global-recession-the-last-nail-in-carbon-tax-coffin/story-e6frgd0x-1226173452717
    Pearson should be sodomised with the constitution.]

    That article is written in some realm outside reality. Falsehood built on falsehood.

  42. [Maybe he was right in 2009 and still right in 2011.]

    More likely he was wrong. He pops up when it suits him. Book to sell hey presto, harbour development to flog hey presto.

    The fossil should retire and thank Hawke for the free fish.

  44. ruawake
    progressivism = loss of freedom now?

    I was not talking about Greens policy when I mentioned progressivism, not being a Green, although their progressivism on carbon got a good scheme at last due to the minority government deal. I also support their asyum seeker policy, which is all about freedom and compassion.

    So there are two progressive policies the government has been obliged to accept, and I don’t see gaols springing up everywhere to imprison the populace.

  46. The Finnigans

    [TRYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY ! Allez le Noire

    poroti, there is Fatwa on putting extra YYYYY]
    Bugger .So no Oyyyyyy Veyyy then 😀

  47. [The fossil should retire and thank Hawke for the free fish.]

    Not a big fan of Keating eh?

    I thought all here worshipped at Keating’s feat as the only person who has ever reformed the Australian economy?

  49. ruawake
    PJK not right-wing enough for you these days? He wants more vision and he’s a fossil?
    How soon they forget on the right.

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