Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

Comments Page 63 of 66
1 62 63 64 66
  1. [With Jones and his mates, it a matter of always “follow the money”.]

    He’s also in it to kick Labor. In his NPC speech yesterday, despite talking about the Hunter Valley and parts of NSW, he never once mentioned Barry O’Farrell or the NSW government, but referred instead to the NSW Planning Dept as being to blame. By contrast, whenever he talked about the Darling Downs and parts of Qld, he ALWAYS mentioned Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser as being to blame.

  2. All I’ve heard from Abbott today was him going on about “faceless men” in relation to Rann. He got a nice long grab in about how the ALP are already preparing to change leaders. He’s got the inside word there, as you can see.

    He’s so quotable because he pitches his speech at ten year olds. Repetitive, simplistic, a little bit scary.

  3. OMFG just when you thought the current bunch of Repug candidates couldn’t get even funnier along comes Herman Cain pushing a 999 tax policy to “save the nation”. 9% gst 9% income tax 9% corporate tax. So where did he get this master plan from ? It looks like from the computer game Sim City 4 !

    [But there’s already a 999 plan out there, in a land called SimCity.

    Long before Cain was running for president and getting attention for his 999 plan, the residents of SimCity 4 — which was released in 2003 — were living under a system where the default tax rate was 9 percent for commercial taxes, 9 percent for industrial taxes and 9 percent for residential taxes. ]

  4. [So he manages to bag a senior naval officer by saying they will turn back the boats, but then proceeds to suggest that they might not actually turn back the boats if the guidance of the naval commander “on the spot” suggests otherwise.]

    gloryconsequence – but all people will hear is Abbott being ‘strong and consistent’ like John Howard. Fran Kelly nearly made me spill my tea the other morning when she fondly remembered how good John Howard was as a PM. He knew his ‘battlers’ and listened to them.

  5. On the Ombudsman resignation, Bob Brown is wrong. The Ombudsman and the Greens should never have allowed this to happen. I have the highest regard for our Public service workers and this puts a small dent on them.

  6. Re: Katter’s Australian Party:
    [Mighell has been a staunch left-winger throughout his 23 years with the Victorian branch of the ETU, whereas Katter is, historically, famously right-wing.]

    Member of Katter’s AP, Jade Connor described as: a left-wing, vegan and social democrat – Why the left should support Katter’s Australian Party:
    [There’s one thing that’s more wrong than our politicians: our political scientists’ complete misdiagnosis of what’s happening in the formation of Katter’s Australian Party, and what it might mean for our politics.
    What the intelligentsia doesn’t get is that the hard left of politics will find a lot of common ground with our Bob. The left, and Greens supporters, should vote for the Australian Party at the next elections.]

  7. Erica just turned up at the end of the Economics Estimates and was told it was too late to ask a question. Didn’t like it and left.

  8. [The govt is putting foward legislation to abolish the ABCC.]

    What is really happening.
    12 Oct 2011:

    [The Prime Minister told caucus yesterday legislation to replace the Australian Building Construction Commission with a new watchdog would be introduced to Parliament shortly.

    The government is proposing to replace the ABCC – an organisation loathed by unions – with a more collaborative inspectorate with coercive powers.

    But the Greens, who have strong links with affected unions, are lobbying the government to dump the coercive powers or apply them more broadly to ”sham” contractors.

    Electrical Trades Union state secretary Dean Mighell yesterday called for abolition of the watchdog and rejected Labor’s proposal to keep a version of the coercive interrogation powers.

    There’s no point if it’s just renaming the ABCC to a division of Fair Work Australia with the same coercive powers and anti-union intent that that organisation has had,” Mr Mighell said.]
    The Fair Work Act: Evaluating the Effects of Reforms / Address to the Global Employment Relations Forum by ACTU President Ged Kearney, Sydney, 30 March 2011

  9. BK

    [Erica just turned up at the end of the Economics Estimates and was told it was too late to ask a question. Didn’t like it and left]
    Do they get “appearance fees” for turning up for these ? If so that may be why Erica is becoming Eric Everywhere

  10. BK

    [Belgium must be extremely grateful that Corman is here and not over there.]
    Just as much as the kiwis were about Joh being over here 😉

  11. [I am of the belief that committee membership does bring with it a stipend.]
    Speaking of which, how’s Mary Jo going?

  12. Re: the Ombudsman:

    John Wood, an international ombudsman consultant, and a former deputy Commonwealth ombudsman:
    [It’s a dark day for the Office of the Commonwealth Ombudsman, and not for the reasons parroted in the media about Allan Asher’s faux pas in collaborating with a Greens senator to raise questions about his resources.

    But a lack of resources has undermined its effectiveness and there are clear conflicts of interest in the current funding arrangements. Australia should follow comparable democracies such as Britain and New Zealand, and countries as varied as Norway, South Africa and Thailand, and make the ombudsman a statutory officer reporting to parliament, like the auditor general. The budget of the ombudsman’s office should be approved by a parliamentary oversight committee.

    Even more worrying, perhaps, is the mechanism for funding the office. If one wanted to curb the ombudsman, the most effective way to do it, short of repealing the legislation, is to starve the office of resources.]

    With the intent of strengthening the Ombudsman’s position, Senator Bob Brown will be presenting a bill to amend the Public Accounts and Audit Committee Act when the parliament resumes in 12 days time.

    It will be interesting to see how the two major parties vote.

  13. [The Economics Committee seems to be having a long lunch. Barnaby’s shout?]

    Ducky, were you watching on A-PAC? And had it not resumed when you posted?

  14. Okay, Ducky. But you’ve denied me an opportunity to stick it to A-PAC for being hopeless at resuming after breaks. The Senate, for example, breaks for dinner for 30 minutes and A-PAC resumes after 45 minutes. Oh well, I did it anyway. 🙂


    [Consumer Confidence rose to 111.8pts, (up 1.5pts in a week) according to the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted over last weekend (October 15/16, 2011). Consumer Confidence is now 15.9pts lower than a year ago, October 16/17, 2010 (127.7).

    This week’s rise in Consumer Confidence has been driven by increasing confidence amongst Australians about how they see their family’s financial situation compared to this time last year.]

    Follows article on different household confidence survey yesterday.

  16. Leroy

    [This week’s rise in Consumer Confidence has been driven by increasing confidence amongst Australians about how they see their family’s financial situation compared to this time last year]
    Orrrrrrrrr driven by the cessation of daily stunts by Abbott telling us we’re all doomed. Orrrrrrr people are believing less and less in his predictions of ruination.

  17. [It will be interesting to see how the two major parties vote.]

    Bob Brown should be laughed at for compromising the Ombudsman. 😛

  18. arunta
    As I said earlier it is enjoyable and informative to watch so many senior public servants, and others, who are right on top of their game.
    It is also instructive as to how shallow are the stocks of talent in the Opposition.

  19. BK, I tried, I really did , but can’t keep my composure.
    Out of interest have you ever thrown shoes, etc. at TV in disgust at the carryon.

  20. [Out of interest have you ever thrown shoes, etc. at TV in disgust at the carryon.]
    Soes or other inanimate object? No.
    Insults? Most certainly yes!

  21. [The Age devotes a lot of space to the shocking insight that Gillard isn’t doing great in polls:

    Obviously read Bernard’s piece in Crikey yesterday. Trouble is they are wrong. Branding is yesterday’s news. With the 24hr news cycle even branding no longer applies. Bernard reckons we’ll go back to Rudd because his brand is ‘better’ but that is just as silly because his brand will be equally trashed (as it previously was) as soon as he regains the top job (which he won’t).

    These newshounds have become junkyard dogs. And we are getting their regurgitated ‘tuckerbox’ and told it is gourmet cuts.

  22. jenauthor

    I despair at the crap being dished up by our msm. I have been waiting for an epiphany by all and sundry. Might be waiting for a long time.

  23. Abbott stunt at a cold store in Lalor.
    “If you can’t control our borders, you can’t govern the country.”
    It’s just a broken record.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 63 of 66
1 62 63 64 66