Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

Comments Page 62 of 66
1 61 62 63 66
  1. [Can Conroy announce an appointment before Newman steps down?]

    Yes.

    BTW, various ABC appointments as well as its role & programming, Australia Network and NewsCorp (USA’s) move into online multi-media school-level educational material were Murdoch’s chief reasons for so blatantly supporting Abbott. Loss of control over those have probably a worse blow than losing BSkyB.

    Note that the USA educational materials push has come under increasing scrutiny in the USA.

  2. The economics team in the opposition is as shallow as a dry puddle. Heaven help Australia if they were to get their hands on the budget.

  3. confessions

    Hope Australians wake up in time to the frauds in the coalition. Abbott has taken thie party into the gutter. He needs to get the judo chop soon.

  4. Funny the mistakes people make.

    I was Googling ‘Yarralumla’ to get a decco at the GG’s digs when I came across this:

    http://www.davesact.com/2010/05/yarralumla-homestead.html

    In it, the author, Dave, informs us that:

    [Yarralumla Homestead has quite a history…]

    I’ll say it does, for he goes on to us that:

    [Prominent New South Wales parliamentarian, Sir Terence Aubrey Murray (1810–1873) purchased Yarralumla in 1837. He and wife Mary Murray (née Gibbes, 1817–1858) lived there until 1859.]

    Wow. So, Terry and the missus continued to live there for a year after her death, eh?

    Shades of Norman Bates.

    I hope the next owners thoroughly fumigated the place when they moved-in.

  5. [Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    Did John Howard, Paul Keating et al ever curtsy for the Queen? No. It’s a sexist artifact – outdated. Only women “have too” submit to this]

  6. I can’t find anything, using a quick google search, on the Australia Network decision. It mustn’t have been announced yet.

  7. The current membership of the Workplace committee is too polite for my liking. Bring on Economics post-lunch with Ronaldson, Abetz, Joyce and Cormann.

  8. [The Australian’s paywall will use a freemium model that provides some free stories but charges for premium content such as analysis, opinion and more specialist material.]

    You have to pay for “premium” content of “analysis” and “opinion” 😆

  9. FFS, why should anybody do anything more than a dip of the head to any head of state in 2012.

    I’m glad I will never meet royalty, cause they’d get nothing more than an everyday greeting from me.

  10. From the horses mouth, there is no requirement for anyone to bow or curtsey. So can the whingers all please STFerretU about it.
    [here are no obligatory codes of behaviour when meeting The Queen or a member of the Royal Family, but many people wish to observe the traditional forms.

    For men this is a neck bow (from the head only) whilst women do a small curtsy. Other people prefer simply to shake hands in the usual way.
    ]

    http://www.royal.gov.uk/ThecurrentRoyalFamily/GreetingamemberofTheRoyalFamily/Overview.aspx

  11. [riahane

    Do Aussies really give a stuff about the Queen??]

    Probably not. But you know there’s no way some would avoid the chance to push another beat up about the PM.

  12. [Katter’s unlikely political pal. Independent MP Bob Katter and unionist Dean Mighell share more in common than their cowboy reputations. There’s the joint love of a good headline, a shared desire to get rid of the country’s building industry watchdog and an interest in the “sport” of hunting.
    And now they’ve taken the relationship one step further, with the two joining forces via a healthy donation from the Electrical Trades Union]

    Looks like Mighell has forsaken the Greens. Would the ETU membership have voted to support Bob Katter?

  13. The bow or curtsey I believe, stemmed from a practical greeting of kneeling when greeting a leader in times when most leaders did not die of old age in their beds. Kneeling made it difficult to draw a weapon and kill the leader. The social effect of bolstering the importance of the leader and inferiority of the supplicant was an added bonus.

  14. [I said to my daughtet this morning, that the PM could find a cure for cancer, and they would still whinge!!!

    Bloody PM is trying to close the medical industry. 😀

  15. [Yes, george, they want us to pay for Albrechtsen, Shanahan and Kenny.]

    Does this mean Savva and Sheriden are the freebie, giveaway content? 😆

  16. confessions

    [Yes, george, they want us to pay for Albrechtsen, Shanahan and Kenny.

    Does this mean Savva and Sheriden are the freebie, giveaway content?]
    Imagine the bruised egos and office disharmony caused by attaching the “non premium” label on a journo 🙂

  17. victoria – The article said that Mighell thinks Katter is good for workers because he is against free trade and ABCC. He didn’t mention that Labor is abolishing the ABCC.

    [This week we have also launched a new stand-alone website futureofjournalism.com.au This site is deliberately not a corporate showcase; it is a discussion forum for anyone interested in developments in media. We will commission material for the site, publish our own original thinking, link to the work of others and allow people who don’t work for News to contribute news, ideas, opinion and analysis.]

    Interesting – there you go, guys. Hartigan is asking for input for the new site he’s creating. He’s going in to competition with bloggers.

  18. So Australia’s most senior naval officer says Abbott’s “turning back the boats” policy is ridiculous. I don’t know many people, regardless of political leaning, that advocate Abbott’s nonsense “turn ’em back” slogan.

    What is Abbott’s response?

    F*ck the navy.

    [TONY Abbott is refusing to abandon his pledge to turn back asylum-boats, defying the advice of Australia’s most senior naval officer that it is unsafe to do so.
    The Opposition Leader said he wanted to retain the option in government of turning back asylum boats in the right circumstances.

    “The navy has done it before, it can do it again,” he said.]

    After all of that bulldust rhetoric, and when actually pushed on the question, he responds with:

    [“The government will make a decision. We will obviously be guided by the advice from naval commanders on the spot, but we won’t shirk our responsibilities to protect our borders.”]

    So he manages to bag a senior naval officer by saying they will turn back the boats, but then proceeds to suggest that they might not actually turn back the boats if the guidance of the naval commander “on the spot” suggests otherwise.

    Slimeball.

  19. victoria
    [The govt is putting foward legislation to abolish the ABCC.]

    This is one of those posts need to be read before too much wine has been consumed.

  20. [The Australian’s paywall will use a freemium model that provides some free stories but charges for premium content such as analysis, opinion and more specialist material.]
    So only “facts” will not be paywalled?

  21. gloryconsequence

    [What is Abbott’s response?

    F*ck the navy.]
    Simple Abbott being simply Abbott. The navy guy just joins a long list of experts in a number of fields where Abbott says he knows better. The man is the polymath genius of our age and modest to boot 😉

  22. Talk of Alan Jones being in step with the Greens is wrong. As always, Jones is in it for the money. Whilst he draws attention to CSG on the Liverpool Plains and the Darling Downs etc, his real target is the HunterValley where several friends have horse studs, and where most of Jones large stable of horses are trained. He himself has property in the Valley. He and his mates would dig up your backyard in an instant at the hint of a quid, but are kicking up a real stink that mining companies might lower the value of their personal investments.
    With Jones and his mates, it a matter of always “follow the money”.

  23. This little black duck

    [The Australian’s paywall will use a freemium model that provides some free stories but charges for premium content such as analysis, opinion and more specialist material.

    So only “facts” will not be paywalled?]
    No no no .In the land of Rupertania, opinions = facts

  24. [Imagine the bruised egos and office disharmony caused by attaching the “non premium” label on a journo]

    After all Savva’s columns about the PM’s appearance and couture, at the end of the day her employer says it doesn’t think her commentary is worth paying for.

    😆

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 62 of 66
1 61 62 63 66