Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

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  3. peg

    poss just tweeted this

    [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Hidden cause of poverty: 771,400 primary carers in Australia – 62% of which were in the two lowest equivalised income quintiles]

    I suspect we will hear more

  4. It seems Cormann is miffed because they can’t get their hands on some of the modelling codes so they can commission Hogwarts and Number Fairies to come up with gotcha results.

  5. Cormann isn’t as bad as other Lib Senators (like Ronaldson, Cash, Abetz). At least he hasn’t hectored the Treasury officials like some of his colleagues.

  6. I left over an hour ag, come back and Corman is STILL being a boofhead.
    Interestingly, the young lady sitting behind Penny Wong is the first girlfriend of one of my lads.

  8. [If person A and B had a large number of entangled particles then person A could selectively “disentangle” particles . That would mean you could send a message to B by use of the binary “entangled” “unentangled” for 1′s and 0′s .]

    If A makes a measurement of an entangled particle and records a 1, B will make a measurement and record 0.

    If A makes a measurement of an entangled particle and records a 0, B will make a measurement and record 1.

    For a larger number of entangled particle pairs…

    The observer at A will get an apparently random series of 0’s and 1’s like 10100100111
    The observer at B will get an apparently random series of 0’s and 1’s like 01011011000

    There is nothing in the random series of 1’s and 0’s that observer B sees that will allow him to infer that A has made a measurement for any or all of the particles.

  9. [Faine uses the devil advocate reasoning for his behaviour.]

    He never gives the shill treatment to those of an obvious conservative bent but thinks it fair to try and shake down progressive supporters. And pretends that’s balance.

  12. Gus,
    Poss is right.
    Seven years as a carer meant I left my employment, used up the savings and has left me facing doing another uni course to retrain to earn an adequate income and incurring a student debt. I doubt I will ever be able to retire.

    There must be a lot like me.

  14. [The most terrifying aspect of the interview was Mitchell’s claim that Tony Abbott has promised Christopher Pearson the chair of ABC.]

    This is another undeliverable promise because the Board is supposed to be independent and whoever soon takes up that position will be contracted for five years.

  15. Further to the Abbott anti-China dogwhistle. Currently in the US and while not following the politics here closely have definitely picked up a strong similar theme permeating the Republican nutcase candidates and supporters. As Abbott & his more extreme troops have modelled themselves on the tea party loonies it is possible that this may be a further part of the explanation for the announcement.

  16. kezza2

    Susan Mitchell has confirmed for me that Abbott is dangerous for this country. It seems to be the consensus that Abbott is most likely going to be PM. The funny thing from my perspective, is that I genuinely do not see it happening. Dont know if it is wishful thinking, but My gut feel is that it will not happen.

  17. X looking like an ignoramus, keeps talking about reviewing the policy based on a Bloomberg report. He also doesn’t understand there is no “global” price

  19. [This poor woman just cannot win! If she did bow the MSM would be into her just as much.
    Short version – read Lamming’s disgraceful tweet.]

    Wow, lame article. Sometimes I think the MSM view of the country can be summed up in six words: “If Gillard’s doing it, it’s wrong.”

  20. Jolyon Wagg

    [The observer at A will get an apparently random series of 0′s and 1′s like 10100100111
    The observer at B will get an apparently random series of 0′s and 1′s like 01011011000]

    If I knew you had just sent a message then I would know that the 1’s and 0’s were not random. Whatever the case it happens instantly over long distances and that in itself means there is a chance we can utilise this for communication. Already entanglement is being tested (over short distances) for secure transmission of data. As a means to check if anyone has “looked” at the message between pont A and B.

  21. Speaking of the committee’s we have been seeing lately,why do so many pollies voluntarily display, for all the world to see, their severe lack of intellectual capacity ?

  22. [Speaking of the committee’s we have been seeing lately,why do so many pollies voluntarily display, for all the world to see, their severe lack of intellectual capacity ?]
    poroti
    Perhaps that’s all they possess.

  24. victoria

    [Susan Mitchell has confirmed for me that Abbott is dangerous for this country. It seems to be the consensus that Abbott is most likely going to be PM. The funny thing from my perspective, is that I genuinely do not see it happening. Dont know if it is wishful thinking, but My gut feel is that it will not happen]
    I’m sure you’re right too!

  25. keeza2 @ 2965:

    [On that basis while most scholarly and scientific work centres round collecting evidence to support a given thesis, for such a work to be academically rigorous, evidence that doesn’t support the thesis needs to be discussed and shown why it is discarded, not omitted for convenience of the thesis.]

    Precisely & that’s why Popper’s thesis is in my view compelling but also problematic.

    In the real world, say in a scholarly article, if one included all the evidence that doesn’t support one’s thesis, the finished product would resemble War & Peace, bearing in mind a good deal of contrary evidence is based on opinion & value judgments.

    Science of course is a different kettle of fish, as the evidence can be more easily weighed by, say, replicating experiments & comparing data, etc.

    Anyway, I must away on this somewhat overcast day on the Goldie but if you wish to discuss the subject at a later time, I would be most willing.

  26. [I’m sure you’re right too!]

    I think part of the reason the consensus for ‘Abbott is most likely going to be next PM’ is a lack of perspective. When more people come to terms with how far off an election actually is, his party’s current good polls won’t seem as such a guarantee of success then.

    And an interesting if typically downbeat article from the States: http://www.salon.com/2011/10/19/austerity_isnt_the_answer/

  29. [If I knew you had just sent a message then I would know that the 1′s and 0′s were not random.]

    Wouldn’t sending the message (presumably at light speed or less) defeat the purpose?

    [Whatever the case it happens instantly over long distances and that in itself means there is a chance we can utilise this for communication.]

    Don’t think so for the reasons above.

    [Already entanglement is being tested (over short distances) for secure transmission of data. As a means to check if anyone has “looked” at the message between pont A and B.]

    I am sure that some uses of entanglement can be found. I just don’t think that faster than light communication is one of them.

  30. [The most terrifying aspect of the interview was Mitchell’s claim that Tony Abbott has promised Christopher Pearson the chair of ABC.]

    Cripes! No wonder Abbott wanted to be PM by Christmas time or whenever it is that Newman’s term finishes.

    Can Conroy announce an appointment before Newman steps down?

  32. vic
    Meghan Quinn is an extremely capable young lady. And I get the impression (shared just seconds ago by Mrs BK) that she would be a very nice person as well.

  39. [of a gormless git?]

    My old Mum would say, “A bad upbringing” or “ill-bred” or “pig ignorant” or “Gutter snipes”. No idea what she meant, as we were quite poor and lived in what was then a working class outer suburb. If any of us had displayed the Oppo’s bad manners, we’d have earned a good whack (or, at school, the “cuts”). In fact, though I spent 26 years teaching in state schools, primary but mainly secondary, 7 in very poor/slum areas, I NEVER came across anyone who was as rude as Abbott, Abetz, Mirabella, Morrison etc etc.

    “Lying gutter snipes” is probably the most appropriate.

  42. “Can Conroy announce an appointment before Newman steps down?”

    There is a panel that is already searching for suitable candidates to hand on to the minister to choose from. In theory, I imagine he could just decide straight away as the Liberals have so far knocked back legislation to introduce a panel.

  46. The Treasury Secretary is having a great Estimates. As is Wong. No gotchas for the opps/msm on carbon pricing and modeling, except reverse gotchas on the opps showcasing their ignorance.

  49. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Why is Barnaby so redfaced]

    Popular opinion has it vic the said Mr Joyce enjoys more than a little of the juice of the grape and other beverages that bring on such a rosy glow. Of course I can neither confirm or deny such a proposition.

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