Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

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  1. [grey

    Thanks for that. I’ve ordered it. I’m going to Tassie for a holiday in a year so that will be perfect.]

    No, worries, be careful around Eaglehawk neck.
    Sorry William, to start a thread so OT.

  3. [On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.]
    We’ll see if they still think that in 12 months time with the compensation and much of Tone’s BS been proven to be just that.

  4. I am a little bit more hopeful about this Poll as The Media Coalition has thown everything at ALP, the Carbon Legislation approval down, I thought would be worst and when benefits start to flow and people realise the end of the earth hasn’t happened and they don’t have to pay personally this they will start to go up.

  11. I can’t quite understand(about to go back to bed) but if ALP is up 3, Coalition steady and greens down 1 how come there is only a movement of plus 1 for Coalition shouldn’t it be plus 2 for ALP, ie 56 to 44?

  12. geeksrulz GeeksOccupyTweetWay
    So unfair to TA after all his hard work RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Preferred L/NP Leader: Abbott 28 Turnbull 44 Hockey 23 #auspol

    😆

  13. And for light entertainment Diogenes with a serious bent, (and an understanding of the wildlife and past and future interactions)’ Hook’s Mountain’ by James McQueen had some resonance for me as a person who was taught by old soldiers about life and the world.
    Set in Tasmania also. Not high literature but it’s got heart.

  14. [On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

    We’ll see if they still think that in 12 months time with the compensation…]

    Gary,

    Indeed. IMO the mandate result will be reversed when people will be faced with losing the compensation were Abbott to be elected and follow through on his blood oath.

  16. Mari, if you apply the 2010 preference distribution to the raw primary votes, you get 56.3-43.7. Most likely the rounding was in Labor’s favour on the primary vote, and in the Coalition’s on two-party preferred.

  18. Great news two years out.
    You can safely say now the bottom is in now.
    From now on until the next election the narrowing will be the major talking point.
    The trend is in now.
    This would be a disaster with a likeable loto. But with a personally unfavourable loto they will stuggle again in a real election campaign.
    Let us not forget that the mad monk lost despite an unusual overthrow of a pm, a favourable media, a first time female atheist and de facto pm. Not only that but all but one of the indepenrants he had to deal with was from a conservative electorate.
    Might seem bad but it is not. Labor lives.

  20. [gordongrahamGordon Graham

    Chris Kenny compares Tony Abbott to Bob Hawke due to his understanding of the mainstream … LOL for so many reasons #sickopopulism #auspol

    5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  21. So let me get this straight. Moany Tony is saying if they get their slimy hands on the gov’t at the next election he will claim a mandate on repealing the carbon price bills and he expects the ALP in the senate to vote with the LNP to achieve this.

    Gawd, what’s he smoking?

  22. Well, any result is technically a possibility…

    Another minority government is probably as unlikely as ever. The only analysis that would make any sense is if the polls are showing a tie in the last week of the election campaign.

  25. [rishane

    Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Shanahan wanks on:
    ]

    I wonder if Shannas is really Evan posting under a non de plume ?

    THey both suffer from massaging their Flutes.

  28. [Let us not forget that the mad monk lost despite an unusual overthrow of a pm, a favourable media, a first time female atheist and de facto pm. Not only that but all but one of the indepenrants he had to deal with was from a conservative electorate.
    Might seem bad but it is not. Labor lives.]

    Not to mention the leaks which devastated Gillard’s approval ratings early in the campaign . Talk about lose the unloseable election.

  34. [William Bowe

    Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 at 12:55 am | Permalink

    That’s among Labor voters, Scarpat. The point being that there aren’t all that many of them.
    ]

    But it’s still Evan’s worst nightmare cos he thinks Rudd is still popular amongst ALP voters 🙂

  38. [Evan’s Wet Dream:]

    Thank you Frank for a disturbing image. I can cope with fingers scraping down blackboards but that really got me.

  39. [That’s among Labor voters, Scarpat. The point being that there aren’t all that many of them.]

    William, I know. If one cannot find joy in one poll, one looks at another until a ray of sunshine is to be found (or not).

  41. I remember this bit, Albo was wearing that white shirt and silver tie that was totally inappropriate for the whacking he gave to the opposite benches. The dry-cleaning must have cost a fortune.

  42. Heard the midnight 3AW news on the way home and the lead item was that there were reports Julia Gillard’s leadership was likely to end soon. And guess who they quoted as evidence of this assertion? That’s right – Julie Bishop on Insiders this morning.

    Are these moron’s for real?

  49. This has been said a thousand times: you look at trends within each poll (Nielsen, Essential, etc.) and don’t compare one poll with another.

  50. Look for a silver lining, look for a cloud, you’ll find it.
    I get pissed off with people that intellectualise everything.(I think I spelt that wrong)
    Post on a blog, that will change the world. I had a bit of biff with Showson the other night about gay marriage.
    On Saturday I will vote as a ALP delegate in favour of it.
    What’s he done?
    He’s posted on a blog.
    Think about it.

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