Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

  1. Diogenes,
    I noted that you admired ‘Goulds Book of Fish ‘by Richard Flanagan.

    There is another book that you might enjoy that delves into the ‘issue’ reasonably deeply.

    personally I am convinced it is some of what the Libs used as their ammo during the
    Mabo debates.
    The ‘Guilt Industry’ remember that phrase?
    I’m sure they felt guilty after reading this book. Best thing he ever did, got a bit arty after.
    ‘The Savage Crows’ Robert Drewe. 1976
    picador
    .

    *this is poll related.

  2. TLM

    Labor ain’t gonna win any elections with a 2PP vote in the low 40s.

    There ain’t gunna be an elections anytime soon,

  3. Be interesting to see what effect the US president election (12 months before our next general) will have on politics here.

  4. Mod Lib – who is “you predicted”? What time frame did they give for any change? I’ve given mine now and before. Are you sure they didn’t mean over a period of weeks or months?

    Seems like there is a bit of a generic PB strawman argument there.

  5. There has been a prolonged period of remarkably static bottom dwelling for Labor. There seems to have been a slight improvement over the past two weeks – but that would really only be due to the Morgan on Friday, the rest was very slightly up and well within MOE.

    But nevertheless that Morgan poll will be a dot above the trendline, and will have an impact. However, a glance at Possum’s graph tells the viewer that there is no trend reversal yet.

    There has been a sick kitten bounce, which could grow into a dead cat bounce, or maybe even a trend reversal, but we don’t know yet.

    Is that Grattanish enough?

  6. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
    The tide seems to have turned for the govt]

    Weren’t posters talking about “Peak Abbott” more than 6 months ago?

    What happened to that? Now we are talking about Peak Abbott in later 2012-eh?

    Huh?

  7. Mod Lib, you answered your own question, you can predict that this thread tomorrow will be filled with “Labor is on the way back, Julia’s leadership is rock solid, Abbott is finished, the MSM will soon be on the back foot, Rudd is just an irrelevance” etc.

  8. @JV/1955,

    Thats incorrect.

    There is a trend coming back, and it started back in July-August according to Pollytics.

    The newest polls in recent weeks tends to support that view.

    Where is you’re “How much Labor can go lower now” attitude ?

  9. I’m not tipping any Peak Abbott. He will be leader for a long time, probably until the election. Turnbull is not popular with too many in the Libs, the rest are not strong contenders.

    If the LNP becomes less popular over time, his personal ratings may stay where they are anyway. He’s not well liked.

  10. [Weren’t posters talking about “Peak Abbott” more than 6 months ago? ]

    Yep, and Abbott is still LOLTO and looking even less like becomming a PM than he was 6mths ago. What’s worse for him is that over the last 6mths his position has become even more dodgy. He has no concrete, credible policies, and his go-to position of choice of boats has been yanked out from underneath him, and by his own making.

    😆

  11. [Rudd will in all likelihood retire at, or just after the next election.]

    We disagree again, Confessions. Rudd aint going anywhere until the UN job is lined up.

  12. Leroy:

    Rudd is unlikely to lead Labor again. /Therefore after the next election: Labor in opposition = Rudd gone. Labor majority govt = Rudd gone, if only because after his whiteanting Gillard (and Cabinet) won’t tolerate him in the ministry for another term.

  13. Nielsen peaked at 61/39 and Newspoll peaked at 59/41 so there is no doubt that Labor has recovered some ground. That is supported by the other polling agencies. However it is too small and hasn’t been happening long enough to call it a trend yet.

    But it looks like Labor is slowly recovering their primary vote from the mid 20’s but they are not taking much of it from the Coalition. Still a long claw back from here.

  14. ML:

    Rudd will secure his UN job, regardless of what he decides to do in politics.

    It might be offered to him before the next election, presenting him with a unique opportunity to pull the pin on a minority Labor govt, and therefore seal his fate as a Labor rat just like Latham.

  15. [It might be offered to him before the next election, presenting him with a unique opportunity to pull the pin on a minority Labor govt, and therefore seal his fate as a Labor rat just like Latham.]

    I don’t think he will get the UN gig without his own government’s support…don’t worry- you are safe from that eventuality!!! 😉

  16. [DavidWH
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
    Nielsen peaked at 61/39 and Newspoll peaked at 59/41 so there is no doubt that Labor has recovered some ground]

    Bzzzt. Sorry, can’t agree with that one either.

    Picking the peak polling in one way or another and then claiming a trend line when you have a different result is wrong…particularly when the outlier is at about the margin of error of the poll anyway!

  17. zoidlord
    [There is a trend coming back, and it started back in July-August according to Pollytics.
    The newest polls in recent weeks tends to support that view.]

    That isn’t a ‘trend reversal’ in terms of dynamic graphs of say the stock market, currencies, or commodities. What Possum says is:
    [Last month’s Pollytrend update saw a small movement back to Labor – small, but the largest movement towards them that they had experienced since the election last year. Suffice to say, that movement back to the ALP troughed out and is now in slight reverse.]
    What a trend reversal means is a confirmed breakout from the current trend into a discernible new one, with its own channel of alternating highs and lows along the way. Not yet, I’m afraid.
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/

  18. Maybe Nielson won’t come out today, can’t see anything yet on The Age or SMH. Would explain why Ghost posted it “unconfirmed”, held over to Tuesday. Or perhaps just running behind in putting it together for today. Could be either (that’s my Grattan moment).

  19. @jv/1972,

    It’s still a trend as in, not at the original position, also, those Pollytics graphics are not updated with the last few weeks, they were posted on September 28.

    Which is nearly over 2 weeks ago.

    The trend might not be up in you’re terms, but it’s certainty not down either.

    So again, Where is the “How low can you go” attitude from a few weeks ago?

  20. Mod Lib when I talked about peak Abbott it is not about the polls – the polls will follow and it will take time. We HAVE passed peak Abbott and it was months ago. We have seen his best – there are no other tricks up his sleeve. He is tying himself in knots and driving his party into a political miasma. Most journalists don’t even pretend anymore that he is actually a viable Prime Minister. They know he can never be PM. You know that too. If he can’t deliver on Carbon, NBN or MRRT then he is no longer useful. In fact the polls now are – as I have said before – like reading chicken entrails.

    People don’t like change and they are confused by the carbon pricing but they are also concerned about the environment. And the Tea Party tactics are not designed for a country with compulsory voting. And Barry O’Farrell, it seems, is dumb enough to remind every NSW voter what will happen under a Coalition government. A week is a long time in politics and two years is another century.

    I don’t expect a change in the polls to change significantly until around next May actually. I am happy that we don’t seem to be getting worse of course.

  21. zoidlord
    My expressed view is that 26/27 PV must be about as low as it can go. You get down among only the simian grunters after that. It got a bit lower in NSW, but that was exceptional.

  22. Mod Lib based on the published polling the Coalition hit their highest polling late August early September and since then they have lost small ground in each subsequent poll. Yes it is within the margin of error however it does point to them having peaked at least for now. however I think it’s to early to call a trend back to Labor.

  23. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 at 12:09 am | Permalink
    @jv/1972,

    It’s still a trend as in, not at the original position, also, those Pollytics graphics are not updated with the last few weeks, they were posted on September 28.]

    True, but the pollytrend has been around 57:43 since Aug so a 57, 57 and 58 from this round aint gonna change it much.

    If you are saying we are trundling around the bottom of a dry creek then I am with you (having said that at least a month ago I can’t argue with that I guess!) 🙂

  24. Men say No the Julia 2/1 against
    _________________________
    A new poll says that Julia Gillard is disliked by almost 2/3 of male voters

    What is to be done ?

  25. Beblaney

    They will have to get over, hope u have,2/3. To. Bad

    There aremore females. In. Aust, than males,

    I am concerned u even ask the qustion

  26. Beblaney

    They will have to get over, hope u have,2/3. To. Bad

    There aremore females. In. Aust, than males,

    I am concerned u even ask the qustion

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