The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.
The sample in Galaxy polls is usually 800.
damn you Leroy!
lol
So nothing has changed with the polling after all. Still same old same old.
The Galaxy Poll is of 1009 voters and was conducted between Friday and today.
[Galaxy Poll Would PM Abbott have mandate to abolish Carbon Tax: Yes 60 No 29]
That would be a good one to track. I predict a long, slow, descending trendline on that one.
Thanks William.
Thanks Ghostie!
@Ghost,
Is Labor slowly coming back or is it stable?
I thought it’s slowly creeping back, even with the media backing Rudd atm (which I think is indirectly helping them).
Well, IMHO this confirms that only the long game with help the govt. No early elections thanks. Taking the Nielson, which matches Newspoll of last week, its as if the events of the week just bounced off everyone. Those figures of carbon tax approval seem similar to Essential, so people aren’t any better informed.
[That would be a good one to track. I predict a long, slow, descending trendline on that one.]
We can only hope that this finding is the peak on that question. But I think its logical that people will accept it more when they learn the truth about it. There are still way too many who have been duped into thinking they have to pay it personally. Pisses me off that the conservatives/deniers get away with such blatantly false advertising.
Leroy:
We’ve got Newspoll next weekend to confirm the trend, if it’s there.
All in all, I’m happy with the slow but gradual about-turn in the polls.
Would be good to know order of questions of Galaxy. Otherwise could be affected more by AS issue being focus over the weekend, being taken a bit later in the week.
So it was conservative respondents fluffing up the Rudd-preferred PM figures! As would progressives for an Abbott-Turnbull question.
Thanks Ghost. You’re the best!
Which ever News Ltd (I presume) paper which did Galaxy will run hard with Abbott’s “mandate” to repeal the tax. Its the last ditch attempt to stop it, or use it stir things up.
@Leroy,
Yeah but you’re forgetting something, Xmas Holidays coming up, I think people have better things to do than read up on that.
Nothing for Labor supporters to get excited about from any of this – all still looks very grim for Gillard.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
Nothing for Labor supporters to get excited about from any of this – all still looks very grim for Gillard.
]
Hand meet certain part of the anatomy.
[So it was conservative respondents fluffing up the Rudd-preferred PM figures! As would progressives for an Abbott-Turnbull question.]
However, from reading all of the commentary on this blog, you’d think amongst Labor voters, Gillard should be streets ahead of Rudd when it comes to preferred Labor leader.
jaundiced view,
[Good. I didn’t see all of it, but it was just a paltry attempted diversionary tactic from the usual ALP minions given the great week the Greens and indies have had, and the failure of Gillard’s AS amendment bill. Waste of your time, by design.]
Thanks for your support 🙂
Rest assured, I understood what tactic was being played. Occasionally, I engage with the game.
PB is almost entirely populated by Laborites. A handful of the regular posters believe that they can post whatever they like about the Greens without having anyone calling them out on on their unsubstantiated claims / BS.
Occasionally, I like to disabuse them of that notion.
@TLM stop trolling.
rishane
[We can only hope that this finding is the peak on that question. But I think its logical that people will accept it more when they learn the truth about it. There are still way too many who have been duped into thinking they have to pay it personally. Pisses me off that the conservatives/deniers get away with such blatantly false advertising.]
Yes, and there is also the growing entrenchment of the new approach in big industry.
When the shareholder interest starts to become enmeshed with the success of cleaner production technologies, as it must by definition under this scheme, how does a director or CEO of one of the big polluters go out and bag the scheme without working against the company’s and its shareholders’ interests? That necessity will inform the debate more and more as implementation starts in my view – and it has already started as of Wednesday for the companies if they want to be competitive.
Some other details from the Galaxy poll:
Carbon Tax (ALP Voters): Support 67 Oppose 27
Carbon Tax (L/NP Voters) Support 10 Oppose 82
Mandate for PM Abbott to abolish Carbon Tax: (ALP Voters): Support 41 Oppose 48
Mandate for PM Abbott to abolish Carbon Tax: (L/NP Voters) Support 78 Oppose 13
Preferred ALP Leader (L/NP Voters): Gillard 18 Rudd 58
[So it was conservative respondents fluffing up the Rudd-preferred PM figures! As would progressives for an Abbott-Turnbull question.]
Bingo. I just did a few rough calculations based on those figures, and the Rudd ‘Mr. Popular’ (and everyone wants him to replace JG) stuff is totally being fluffed up by conservatives messing around. Which doesn’t get reported because that’d destroy the illusion. This isn’t exact, but I believe the Gillard/Rudd/Undecided figure among the 57% of non-Labor voters (2PP) is 13/61/26. And because its 57% of voters, that’s really skewing the poll in one direction.
I’m being a little more sober and realistic than others, who trumpet a meagre 1% swing to the ALP as proof that Abbott is finished – remember all of the confident predictions a few weeks ago that Turnball was about to mount a challenge and the Liberals were disunited?
Ghost, who payed for Galaxy?
[Mandate for PM Abbott to abolish Carbon Tax: (ALP Voters): Support 41 Oppose 48]
That’s the most disturbing finding for me. But at least there’s time for it to turn around.
[PB is almost entirely populated by Laborites. A handful of the regular posters believe that they can post whatever they like about the Greens without having anyone calling them out on on their unsubstantiated claims / BS.
Occasionally, I like to disabuse them of that notion.]
Pegasus, you’ve hit the nail on the head.
I don’t think Turnbull replace Abbott.
[1925
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 11:29 pm | Permalink
I’m being a little more sober and realistic than others, who trumpet a meagre 1% swing to the ALP as proof that Abbott is finished – remember all of the confident predictions a few weeks ago that Turnball was about to mount a challenge and the Liberals were disunited?
]
and if you believe that fairy tale – then I have a nice bridge for sale – 1 owner…..
[I’m being a little more sober and realistic than others, who trumpet a meagre 1% swing to the ALP as proof that Abbott is finished – remember all of the confident predictions a few weeks ago that Turnball was about to mount a challenge and the Liberals were disunited?]
No, you’re being dishonest. Even optimists think that a shift is going to take quite a while to play out.
TLM – I never said we’d get a boost. Always said & thought it would take time, probably late next year. Who are you adressing?
Pegasus
[Occasionally, I like to disabuse them of that notion.]
And you do; politely as well.
@TLM,
You just can’t accept the truth that there is support coming back for ALP, you just rather have “Gillard lowest of the lows” news, kinda like how the media likes it.
A little suggestion for those thinking they can see the start of a trendline back to ALP:
Check out the 2yr Newspoll trend on the frontpage of Oz website
OR
Check out the pollytix pollytrend graph
…yes I know these polls aren’t on it yet but you can get the picture still!
TLM
Some of us just refuse to depart the PB lounge for the sake of balance and a diversity of views 😀
[A handful of the regular posters believe that they can post whatever they like about the Greens without having anyone calling them out on on their unsubstantiated claims]
All you’ve done is amplify the argument I made in my original comment: the Greens do not do give voters the full picture when it comes to their media statements, leaving us reliant on what Bob Brown labels the ‘hate media’.
I think this is a shame. You OTOH seem to think this is “unsubstantiated claims” yet cannot link to a detailed summary of SHY’s statement on health professionals the other day.
When the Greens inevitably (as they will) make accusations about other parties not being the full bottle on transparency, I will continue to raise their own inadequacies as I’ve highlighted wrt to their own media statements.
Best news is that Ghost is still active.
@Mod Lib/1935,
News Flash, NewsPoll isn’t the only poll!
And you can’t help it either. Just accept that Labor are creeping back.
Thats why Abbott wanted an early election.
[You just can’t accept the truth that there is support coming back for ALP, you just rather have “Gillard lowest of the lows” news, kinda like how the media likes it.]
Prettymuch. And that is one upshot out of this. Even with all the latest crap about GOVERNMENT IN CRISIS (because they didn’t agree on something in lockstep, gasp!), GILLARD IS DOOOOMMED etc: the polls didn’t fall. Sure they’re on a low base, but its a base nonetheless.
Oh, and one report that I don’t think was quoted on here today: http://www.smh.com.au/national/now-our-women-reign-gillard-will-tell-queen-20111015-1lq8w.html
I don’t see any sort of positive trend back to Gillard & Labor, other than that Morgan poll from Friday(and that was probably a rogue one).
Labor ain’t gonna win any elections with a 2PP vote in the low 40s.
So Neilsen hasn’t given the usual suspects an opportunity to crow and carry on about Gillard death/Labor death.
Now what?
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
@Mod Lib/1935,
News Flash, NewsPoll isn’t the only poll!]
Newsflash: Pollytics trendgraph includes more than Newspoll and shows the same thing! Almost identical in fact. The predicted number of seats on current trends is ALP 50 BTW
I’d assume Gillard and her strategists are hoping she’ll get an approval rating lift from the visit of her Majesty next week – probably why Julia is back on the first female PM stuff in today’s papers.
[So Neilsen hasn’t given the usual suspects an opportunity to crow and carry on about Gillard death/Labor death.
Now what?]
We’re just pointing out that 57/43 is just as diabolical as 58/42.
Good night all 🙂
[1845
victoria
Socrates
The success of the movement, speaks to the dire circumstances people are facing. I am surprised it has taken so long. There should have been action a few years ago. What people got instead, was astroturfing. I believe the election of Obama was a strategic move by the powers that be. It lulled people into a false sense of real change and hope for them. We all know now, that was a mere illusion.]
Rightwing American politics is pure fantasy…so says Paul Krugman…
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/opinion/rabbit-hole-economics.html?_r=2&hp
Rabbit-Hole Economics
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: October 13, 2011
Blog: The Conscience of a Liberal
Reading the transcript of Tuesday’s Republican debate on the economy is, for anyone who has actually been following economic events these past few years, like falling down a rabbit hole. Suddenly, you find yourself in a fantasy world where nothing looks or behaves the way it does in real life.
And since economic policy has to deal with the world we live in, not the fantasy world of the G.O.P.’s imagination, the prospect that one of these people may well be our next president is, frankly, terrifying.
Meme is carbon Tax repeal.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
There is nothing ambiguous with either of these trend graphs.
Crystal clear in fact!
I have no objections to you guys saying you “hope” a trend will emerge, I wont spoil your party if you say that. But if you are all getting together to say “Wow, look at the trend back to ALP” on these figures, then I am just going to laugh I am afraid. You predicted it would happen post-carbon tax bill passage. Lets see whether it does. It aint so far, lets just agree on that at least.
The tide seems to have turned for the govt, if at least at least the bleeding has been staunched. Another 12 mths of substantive achievement vs Abbott’s populist do-nothingness and we’ll see where the polls sit then.