Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  1. geoffrey

    This deserves a definite Well Well Well.
    [In the first face-to-face Morgan Poll Morgan Poll taken after the Gillard Government Tax Forum shows a sharp rise in support for the ALP 47.5% (up 4.5%)]

  2. [and using the previous election preference measure Labor has drawn level ]

    does this mean what it actually says William?

  3. Just to avert the evil eye (and because I’m not used to making positive comments on polls)….when you factor in the usual Morgan poll bias towards Labor, the Coalition actually leads 95/5.

  4. Zoomy beat me but yes when you factor in the house bais, admit Morgan is rubbish that you never pay attention to anyway and remember that labor is evil and only does good when the greens force then too the clearly the poll is -200 / 100 / 100 : lab / green / lib

  5. Now while everyone is picking their jaws up off the ground and checking they have the right reading glasses hopefully William can put an expert’s view of it.

  6. Burgey/everyone, I did it, all by myself! The first time I have ever been polled. And by Morgan, last weekend. The obliging chap was asking me in my lounge room who I’d vote for as I was screaming at the TV during the Wallabies v SA. Boy, did he get both barrels of an answer. And all from the “Tory wasteland” – as a friend described north of the Sydney Harbour bridge – electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by that pillock Nelson and now held by that pillock whose name I choose to forget.

  7. It would be remarkable if it carries through to Nielsen next week. Morgan seems to be placing a lot of emphasis on the tax summit but that was hardly a big swing event.

    Anyway well done PB’ers. You haven’t had many polls to crow about lately.

  8. I have read people here rubbishing Morgan when it went against the ALP, so I guess it should be the same when it swings towards us.

    I also think that alas the asylum seeker issue will bring back the ALP to lower levels. There is something poisonous about that issue and the ALP, they can’t win. Of course the predicament they find themselves in is totally of their own making.

  9. Meanwhile in NSW, Magistrate Maloney survived a dismissal application in the NSW upper house yesterday.

    He did so on the combination of votes from labor, greens, shooters, christians and the odd lib including David Clarke MLC, who, as a lib, makes Kevin Andrews look like a wet.

    The fun of a conscience vote – we should have more of them.

  10. [Now while everyone is picking their jaws up off the ground and checking they have the right reading glasses hopefully William can put an expert’s view of it.]

    I think it’s a rogue.

  11. Darc

    [Burgey/everyone, I did it, all by myself! The first time I have ever been polled. And by Morgan, last weekend.]
    Take a bow on lifting the spirits of thousands of Labor voters 🙂 .Apparently you have Paul Fletcher as your MP.

  12. I think it’s a rogue.

    Yeah, it probably is. Funny thing about rogues though is that they always seem to overstate the direction the swing is going. So it’s safe to assume there’s something going back the ALP‘s way, though you can’t say it categorically of course.

    Where’s the supplementary – you know, the one that says under Rudd the ALP would be up 58-42 by now?

  13. William,

    While I don’t doubt your psephological genius, can you understand if I choose not to believe you, at least for a day? 😉

  14. William,

    Do you have a graph showing the moving average of the major polls? I remember you posted one in a headline a couple of months or more ago.

  15. A rogue poll is an informal bit of terminology for that one poll out of 20 we can expect to be outside the margin of error, other things being equal. In this case the margin of error is about 3 per cent. As for the competence of Morgan’s methods, their face-to-face polling usually shows a pretty strong bias to Labor, although this has been less evident since their vote collapsed earlier this year.

  16. Darc

    You are right you did do it. Your “rogue” Labor vote from Bradfield and next thing you know William declares the whole poll a rogue 🙂

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