Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  1. #Libspill is on! 😀

    OK – even the most one-eyed Labor supporter wouldn’t expect such a huge jump in such a short space of time. It does support a bit of a trend back to the government though which is nice to see.

  2. [Where’s the supplementary – you know, the one that says under Rudd the ALP would be up 58-42 by now?]


    And not just that, but that these people have locked their votes in to guarantee it’d be repeated at an election.

  3. William

    Perhaps you could use the term “outlier” it sounds so much less threatening 🙂 Besides, you expect 5% of polls to be outside the limits.It would be never getting them that would be a “rogue result”.

  4. Don’t get excited bludgers. No popping corks on the pricey champers…. although I have opened a small can of Fanta for a quite half-smile celebration

  5. “I think it’s a rogue.

    Of course it’s a rogue. Has to be. This time last week, when Labor made some inroads, our esteemed host opined that it was because all the rich, conservative would-be respondents were at the Hamptons for the long weekend and consequently were absent when the pollsters came knocking. I’m not sure what caused this poll. Did they all drop dead? Have a road to Damascus moment? Who knows? But if my mail is right – and it generally is – then people are starting to get very sick of Tony Abbott. I’m hearing a lot of “If Malcolm Turnbull were leader…” and Tone wouldn’t like knowing the type of people saying it. Definitely not Poll Bludger types.

    This could get very interesting…

  6. William ignoring rogue for the moment do any of the polling
    Houses show as less volatile within the margin of error – yeah pick the lawyer trying to ask a stats question – but I guess I’m asking something like volatility around some kind of ‘true’ measure but then we’d only have something like possums tracker mean …

  7. I’m quite sure it’s a rogue in terms of its actual figures, but a move (even in a Morgan f-to-f) is consistent with the slight move back on primaries in Newspoll. As always with these things, we wait to see a trend, if any develop.

    Struggling to think of anything which would have caused a move back to the government in the polling period, and I can’t actually say I can.

  8. Labor has been trending back in newspoll from 41 to 43. Why doesn’t this just confirm that trend.
    Surely there must come a point where people get tired of Tone and his stupid antics and decide to vote him out of the house; and where people get tired of blaming julia for Rudds demise, etc etc.

  9. It’s the lull before the …… next poll!

    Fairfax has been a bit feral against Labor the past week so Neilsen may bring us back to earth again.

  10. [I bet this poll gets the silent treatment in the MSM.]

    No doubt, BK. Morgan has lost all credibility, especially F2F, but a big movement like this is something to notice. Or, I thought it was. William, what are you like at parties?

  11. “Were you on the mobile or a home phone for this poll?”

    0/10 for comprehension. He already said it was in his loungeroom!

  12. Derrrrr! I was reading it as 57.5-42.5 and wondered why you were all so excited. I thought what’s going on when it’s only dropped from 57-43.

    Now I can get excited. ‘Well’, may we say …… 😉

  13. WeWantPaul, are you asking if the polls have become less volatile? I’d doubt it, although it does seem a while since we’ve had a result that you would immediately look askance at, such as this one.

  14. I think Julia also gets some credit out in the community for getting the sh… kicked out of her every day, yet still looking like she’s up for the fight. That takes a while to sink in, and maybe it’s sinking in now.

  15. Roy,

    In my defense (of the indefensible 😉 ) I went off and read some other polling details and the question popped into my head about those polls. I shifted polls but not thoughts!

  16. Interesting

    Pretty much status quo on primary votes to the election result.

    I wonder which mysterious way morgan will jump next?

  17. rosa – i think it’s too early for this to “confirm” any trend.

    If there is a turnaround, and it’s still a big if, then this is Genesis, not Revelation.

    Especially as those who are the experts on the polls don’t place much store in Morgan Face to Face.

  18. To true Burgey. In fact it’s so good that when I pull it out of my pocket now, the back generally falls off and sometimes the battery falls out, leading to wonderful silence. They’ll call back, I suppose.

  19. I mentioned here a couple of weeks ago that a person I know, an ex military man and staunch Lib supporter was up in arms about Abbott blocking the Malaysia deal.

    ..Just mentioned this poll to him – he’s not at all surprised, says most of his mates feel the same as he does, that the Libs have screwed up bigtime.

    He reckons his main concern is that people will continue to die in unseaworthy boats, even if Nauru were to be restarted.

  20. So it’s 52.5/47.5 on Morgan face 2 face?

    Adjusted for 3.5% bias = Coalition 56 ALP 44.

    Big Whoopee Woo!

    Nothing ‘s changes, a lot of work to do yet to oust the Monkey 😯

  21. I love bloggers rushing to biblical metaphors (this is genesis not revelation) – I love metaphysical politics – to date it also seemed superstition dressed up as facticity, now it seems like facticity dressed up as … O yes, I think on monday i gave saturday as long enough to wait (insead of June 2012). voila. prophecy on line.

    too soon to leave the greens (they can annoy immensely with pseudo democracy) but no reason to leave PB just yet.

  22. BK – I’ve given up on PVO on Friday arvo lately but will watch today to see if they mention Morgan. When it went down for Labor a few months ago they and ABC Breakfast mentioned it, which is pretty rare.

  23. Whilst this poll does more than likely overstate labor’s vote, it is worth noting that is does follow a pattern of movement towards the govt over the last month.

    The last three newspolls
    5/9 — 41 59
    19/9 — 42 58
    10/10 — 43 57

    Essentials polls for the same dates
    5/9 — 43 57
    19/9 — 44 56
    10/10 — 45 55

    Last 3 Morgan F2F (Primary voting figures)
    10-11/9 & 17-18/9 — 32 48
    24-25/9 & 1-2/10 — 35.5 46.5
    8-9/10 — 38.5 43.5

  24. [TheLastWord
    Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    Whilst this poll does more than likely overstate labor’s vote, it is worth noting that is does follow a pattern of movement towards the govt over the last month. ]

    Good point TLW…the steady climb back up, 2 years to go, but still great poll today, excellent tonic for the believers 🙂

  25. come on will iam fair shake of sauce bottle

    why do we have this bias thing. i think we should scared whats it out of them

    and ring news radio dont you.

    truly why do we need the bias thing i am taking NO notice of it

    becauce how do you know 3 percent of those people where telling porkies

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