Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  2. [And we got done in Aotearoa. I should add “as usual”. Offspring is with a bunch of old school friends down at the Rah Rahs pub. Says they’re going to cheer for Frogland next. As if they need encouragement. NOT.]

    The AllBlacks are very focussed and very, very determined.

    How much blood did you see?

    Just watched James O’Connor interviewed. A precocious talent, baby- faced, tough as nails, and refreshingly honest he has much to offer Oz Rugby in the years to come and has plenty of company in a young and talented team. He said WTTE he had not experienced that level of physicality and intensity in a test before.

    This is for keeps.

  4. confessions
    [But doesn’t find its way to the Greens website which is where most people (incl me) would go to find it.]
    Seriously, you assume that you know what “most people” do?

    It is astounding that you still do not seem to grasp that each Greens parliamentarian has their own web site that contains their specific press releases.

    If I don’t find what I am looking for at the general Greens site, I then look further afield after identifying the relevant parliamentarian responsible for the policy area.

    Is that too difficult for you to do? It is what I did to locate what you have been demanding for days.

    It is the same strategy I undertake when I am searching for ALP or Coalition policy statements, media releases, etc which can also require some effort to track down at times.
    [I am as demanding of the Greens as the Greens are of other parties when it comes to transparency and openness. If the Greens can only talk the talk and not walk the walk they should zip it]
    Strawman.

    Links were prominently displayed on the front pages of the Greens senators web sites, fully transparent and available to all.

    Keep digging.

    PS. Apologies to all PBers but I will continue to respond to confessions disingenuous comments for as long as she persists with this latest tedious obsession of hers about the Greens.

  5. When did Harvey Norman say this? I thought Harvey Norman blamed the ALP government for everything???
    [And don’t get Australians started on the economy. Gerry Harvey, chief executive of the Harvey Norman chain, which also operates in Ireland, recently said Australians should be “as happy as pigs in shit” about their economic situation. But they’re not. They whinge about their lot and demand a new election, as if the government they voted for just over a year ago is the worst thing ever]
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/1014/1224305756729.html

  7. Gaffy

    My experience is that transexuals are the worst people to deal with of any group. I’ve murderers, terrorists, arsonists, many sociopaths etc etc and they are much less problematic.

  8. sprocket
    It is a small-minded attitude from the wowser who wrote the Vexnews piece. If you started outing heavy drinkers among parliamentarians then there would be few left. At what point do your rule them out, or in on that criterion? Who decides on who drinks too much?

    The criterion is how they perform, and in the major parties who can possibly tell if a backbencher is slightly off their usual speed in putting their hand up as required?

    I’d say the “Darwin stubby” became fair game for the ALP-right because she crossed Gillard, hence this sort of reportage, with Scullion as collateral damage.

    Anyone remember Blackie, the NSW lower house member for Broken Hill? He’d drink either of those two NT ‘legends’ under the table in the first 30 minutes. Darwin-shmarwin. 😀

  9. [Seriously, you assume that you know what “most people” do?]

    Yes. It is reasonable that people would seek information about Greens statements from their website, not the individual Senators websites.

    [It is astounding that you still do not seem to grasp that each Greens parliamentarian has their own web site that contains their specific press releases.]

    So the individual is bigger than the party? How nice for the Greens. This actually isn’t normal, save for independents and Ministers, who have their own department website to post announcements under.

    [Is that too difficult for you to do?]

    The point is I shouldn’t have to. In the interests of transparency this information should be front and centre on the party’s website, not individual MP’s. I come back to my original argument that we the voters don’t actually know, nor can we find Greens statements simply because a) they don’t exist and b) if they do exist they are stored in an obscure location on individual MP’s pages. And even then we don’t get the whole picture, but Greens-approved versions only.

    [It is the same strategy I undertake when I am searching for ALP or Coalition policy statements, media releases, etc which can also require some effort to track down at times.]

    They are all available on the party’s website. Freely available in the one central location most people would go to search for them. I don’t believe for one minute you can’t find Labor announcements on the internet.

    [Links were prominently displayed on the front pages of the Greens senators web sites, fully transparent and available to all.]

    Yeah, I get it. In an obscure place. Who the hell knows who Senator Di Natale is? Who knows who SHY is? Are these people bigger than the Greens, who all voters would surely know about, or are they members of a larger team?

    And SHY’s announcement from the other day STILL isn’t on either her web page or the Greens.

    Keep digging.

  10. Actually now would be a good time to repeat a story I’ve told before. I have a colleague who saw a lady who wanted a breast augmentation. They chose the breast implant size and he performed the surgery a few weeks later. At the end of the operation, they transferred the patient off the operating table to the barouche.

    The patient’s penis came loose from being strapped between his legs.

    One of the funniest things I’ve ever heard. 😆

    True story.

  11. If I’m not mistaken, Nielsen is due …

    Not sure when they conduct the poll, but if it was after the news that the ALP went back to onshore processing, it could be interesting …

  12. [PS. Apologies to all PBers but I will continue to respond to confessions disingenuous comments for as long as she persists with this latest tedious obsession of hers about the Greens.]

    Shorter Horsey

    The Greens Do things differently – comply or else….

  14. @1860
    Sounds like a cock up.
    Aren’t there tests like the Minnesota Multiphasic and house /tree/person, done before this happens?, or did I read it in a Thomas Harris novel. I think I might.

  17. [but I will continue to respond to confessions disingenuous comments ]

    How are my comments disingenuous when they are demonstrably true?

  18. Diogenes
    [The patient’s penis came loose from being strapped between his legs.]
    What a coincidence!
    Something similar has happend to me – apart from: the coming loose; the strapping; and the augmentation. 😀

    Seriously though, we were talking about botox and silicone breast implants at dinner last night, and my strong point was that every woman should have breast implants, because it assists forensic investigators should a woman be found dead and badly mutilated in suspicious circumstances without ID. I have heard of such a woman being identified from the factory serial numbers on her silicon implants. So it’s a public policy issue really.

  19. [confessions

    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    but I will continue to respond to confessions disingenuous comments

    How are my comments disingenuous when they are demonstrably true?
    ]

    Cos Horsey, as a Green Decrees So – They asren’t called High & Mighty for nothing….

  20. Dio

    [My experience is that transexuals are the worst people to deal with of any group. I’ve murderers, terrorists, arsonists, many sociopaths etc etc and they are much less problematic.]

    A lifetime of internal conflict might lead them to wanting resolution of some sort and not wanting to be given ‘face value’ for their problems or the prejudices they have faced.

  24. grey

    There is very extensive testing done before gender reassignment surgery; this patient bypassed it.

    I don’t think they have clinics in SA for it. There were issues of some sort and it was shut down years ago. It’s mainly managed in the East now.

  25. Thanks William

    Given that Fairfax went heavy with the Nielsen poll that showed onshore processing was popular (although if I’m not mistaken, it could be inferred from he question phrasing in that poll that onshore processing could have included Nauru) it will be interesting in terms of their newspapers narrative to see what happens to the ALP voting intention.

  26. Not particularly upset about the Kiwis winning, particularly as our media had spent the entire last 7 days annointing the Wallabies as World Cup Champions prematurely. 🙂

  27. HaveAChat

    I dunno what the cause is but the end effect is bad news in many, but not all, people I have met. The whole area is a minefield.

  28. FYI I heard a rumour that Ghost’s contact at News Ltd/Newspoll was discovered and fired which is why The Australian mentioned him/her in the Media Diary as someone who had only been tweeting Newspoll for a month when he/she been doing it for way longer.

    Not sure if that’s true or not. Would be very sad if it is true.

  32. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 29 Rudd 53 #auspol
    25 seconds ago
    GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 29 L/NP 51 GRN 12 #auspol
    55 seconds ago

  33. #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 29 L/NP 51 GRN 12 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 29 Rudd 53 #auspol

  37. Okay, I will withdraw from my latest engagement with confessions.

    My withdrawal is not an admission of defeat but the desire to contribute to the positive and harmonious vibe on PB 🙂

  38. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 50 Rudd 43 #auspol]

    And watch for that figure to be ignored.

  40. Thornleigh LM
    [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/mike-rann-says-some-of-factional-heavies-who-outsted-kevin-rudd-got-him-too/story-e6frgczx-1226167779571]

    [“I think this involves a lack of respect whilst this fellow from the shop assistants’ union was in my office, it was being leaked deliberately to the media it was an ambush basically,” Mr Rann said in the interview with ABC radio.

    “The people involved in leaking it would sort of be fairly low on the IQ food chain.”]

    All of that rings true, especially the Diplodocus reference.

  41. @1874
    My experience with transexuals is mainly through addiction related issues. Which in most of these cases the addiction related directly to the gender issues.
    Unpredictable is the word that comes to mind.
    I didn’t know whether I was hated or tolerated no matter what I said or did.
    I was not, nor pretended to be, someone who really understood, because I didn’t.
    Still don’t.

  45. [#Galaxy Poll Would PM Abbott have mandate to abolish Carbon Tax: Yes 60 No 29 #auspol]

    A better question would be whether Abbott has the bottle to do so.

  48. Pegasus
    [My withdrawal is not an admission of defeat but the desire to contribute to the positive and harmonious vibe on PB]

    Good. I didn’t see all of it, but it was just a paltry attempted diversionary tactic from the usual ALP minions given the great week the Greens and indies have had, and the failure of Gillard’s AS amendment bill. Waste of your time, by design.

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