Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  2. Well, hard played game – shame about the ref. All over for Oz. Cooper should not have been played in that position. To answer kezza earlier – Rugby is a true team game – it doesn’t really have “stars” like Ablett and it shouldn’t. The media want to make it about celebrities and it ruins the game for them and us in my opinion.

  6. According to twitter account, the last tweet was 5th Oct. One before that was 26th Sept.

    I hope the ABC haven’t shut him down. Some of his tweets were hilariously appropriate.

  8. [Do you remember the ABCNewsIntern on twitter? Whatever happened to him?
    I have not seen any tweets from ABCNewsintern for a while]
    This is what I was alluding to a few days ago when I asked what had happened to the journos.
    It’s not only ABCNewsintern that has disappeared off twitter but quite a few other journos who use to regularly tweet.

  11. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You fuggin Twitters, i did call them the Wobblebys and i was fuggin right #rwc2011
    3 seconds ago

  12. And we got done in Aotearoa. I should add “as usual”. Offspring is with a bunch of old school friends down at the Rah Rahs pub. Says they’re going to cheer for Frogland next. As if they need encouragement. NOT.

  15. [ GG_Australia The Govenor General
    by darrenlaver
    1 more text from NZ PM Mr Keys and One will be sending the 4th Royal Australian Regiment to sort out the World Cup once and for all #RWC2011]

    🙂

  16. [Julia Gillard
    @JuliaGillard
    To the Wallabies – thanks for your courage, the spectacle & for never giving up! To John Key – a bet is a bet. I’ll be eating a NZ apple. JG]

  17. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @JuliaGillard Dear PM, when are you going to invade New Zealand #auspol
    17 seconds ago

  20. [Victoria Collins
    @HillbillySkill
    Barry O’Farrell is a bastard. Julie Bishop is a bitch. That is all I have learnt about politics today. #auspol]

  22. Diogenes

    what is wrong with you South aussies. Don’t be such Mysoganists, give a girl a go. :mrgreen:

    [Adelaide Remand Centre inmate Leslie “Krista” Richards has complained to the Commissioner for Equal Opportunity and the Ombudsman, alleging discrimination by being placed in a male prison.

    Correctional Services has refused to let Richards, 61, wear women’s clothing since being arrested in May last year – despite the fact he was allowed to wear a dress and make-up when an inmate at Mobilong Prison between 1994 and 1998.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/sex-change-inmate-leslie-krista-richard-pleads-let-me-wear-womens-clothes/story-e6frfkvr-1226167676553#ixzz1awGniJec

  23. [Scarp, i believe it is now at “overseas” Manly]

    Finns,

    Then they can take out Tony Abbott and Chris Mitchell at the same time…

  29. Has anyone noticed that the PM, apart from Shanahan, refuses to take questions from News Ltd journalists? I did read she had placed a ban on them.

    The only exception I noticed was last week when she allowed that scum bag Franklin to ask a question. Of course, he started disrespectfully by not even adressing her as PM, and simply said “Oh, thank you very much for asking me”

    What a grub!!

  32. Vic
    [Checked Franklin’s twitter account. He has actually been conversing with Rod Hagen and SK in past few days]
    I haven’t seen his tweets but then I haven’t been on as much lately.
    So obviously, I’m missing in action not the journos. 😀
    Actually thinking of shutting my online accounts down for security reasons.

  33. Well I thought NZ 20 – Australia 6 was a fair reflection of the game. NZ were better than us – they were more in control, had more ball, a better scrum, and better kicking. We made more breaks, but Pocock aside, three of the first four to each ruck were usually Kiwis. Like Dio said, we were lucky to get this far.

    If only we’d had the carbon tax in place longer, like NZ 🙂

  37. Dee

    I find twitter great for news updates and tidbits, and I like passing on selected articles. If you’re worried about security, perhaps make sure you real full name is not in the user profile anywhere, and the email account is not your normal everday one.

    I know what you mean about online accounts in general. I’m not on facebook for that reason.

  40. Barnes should have been played much more – our last emphatic victory over the AB’s was in 2008 when he played 5/8. No kicking game, no world cup glory.

    Followed the game on my iphone which updated the score every 15 seconds. Meant I got to see our score of 6 points nearly 200 times since we did not score for the last 48 minutes.

  41. Occupy Wall Street protests are now spreading aroudn teh world, having already gone to at least half a dozen US cities. The Guardian has an “occupy London” live blog.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/16/occupy-protests-europe-london-assange

    Power to them I say. The young are correct to protest; they have no hope of a job or a future if current policy persists. To paraphraase Lenin, (would be) workers of the western world, rise up! You have nothing to lose but your student debt.

  42. Victoria
    [What security concerns do you have?]
    I was notified by a newspaper that my account was shutdown because there had been volumous attempts at hacking my account.
    Plus, moi can still access a certain site 😉 😉 without registered password.

  43. [If only we’d had the carbon tax in place longer, like NZ :)]

    And they’d shown a bit of gratitude for all we’ve done for them, esp this year. Why, even as I type, they’re over trying to stop the whole place being smothered in seriously environmentally yucky flotsam and jetsam.

    We didn’t even ask for penalties when those interfering Kiwis, in a trooly dastardly cunning plan, removed all that weightless, harmless, healthy CO2 gas from the air.

    Was 20-6 gratitude, I ask?

  45. Socrates

    The success of the movement, speaks to the dire circumstances people are facing. I am surprised it has taken so long. There should have been action a few years ago. What people got instead, was astroturfing. I believe the election of Obama was a strategic move by the powers that be. It lulled people into a false sense of real change and hope for them. We all know now, that was a mere illusion.

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