Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Dee

    Avatar, schmavatarl, gravatar. Still grappling with the nomenclature.

    It’s amazing how personal pics don’t translate. Haven’t tried, but Puff’s was always outstanding until she changed it to her lost pups. Not a criticism, Puff, but I recognised your post before you lost your beloveds. Now it is grey, rather than crimson.

  2. Catch you later, bludgers. I think this site is one of the few things Oz has going for it in terms of actual analysis of what’s going on that’s accessible to plebs such as moi. Onya, William and the bludgers.

  3. [Further, a media release about the new Greens policy was only released on Friday 14 October.]

    But doesn’t find its way to the Greens website which is where most people (incl me) would go to find it.

    [IMO, you seem to be rather demanding about turnaround times for the Greens Party]

    I am as demanding of the Greens as the Greens are of other parties when it comes to transparency and openness. If the Greens can only talk the talk and not walk the walk they should zip it.

  4. [BK
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
    Cooper loses the ball.
    Er, yibbedy yibbedah. That’s all folks!]
    Is Cooper the Gary Ablett (senior or junior) of Rubgy?

  5. HSO

    Yes I felt that too. Although the msm and coalition are milking the leak for all its worth. Saying that the govt is losing control etc.

    Anyhow hope all is well on your end?

  6. [BK
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
    Come on Wallabies. Time to rattle some teeth!]
    What’s the score, damn you? Is it close? Is it catchupable?
    How much time?

  7. Harry at 1612

    And to think that those on the right of the ALP used to poo-poo the ‘pledge faction’ of Labor lefties. The pledge was one thing…….

    But the Lib’s Blood Pledge?

    It just makes the lot of them just look stupid. Pledging their blood to stand by a policy they can never implement. Good one.

    They’ve gotta know they have Buckley’s of unscrambling the carbon permits egg, especially once trading starts and some real dosh is laid out by the Big End of Town. Two years and a few tens of billions down the track and they’re screwed. Wiser heads within their own party must know this.

    I’m not sure that this is behind the recent (slight) trend to Labor, however. The reason is that I don’t think the true stupidity of the Libs “wind-back” position has sunk-in with the Great Unwashed yet.

    It will, but that will take time. A half decent ad campaign by the Government ought to get the fires well and truly burning.

    Be that as it may, I think the recent ‘trend’ (if that’s what it is) is due to something else. Probably to people becoming sick and tired of Tony’s relentless negativity. There’s only so much ‘liar liar, pants on fire’ one can listen to without it starting to cause one’s teeth to start to grate.

    I think we’ve reached that point. And I reckon it’s all on the up and up from here. Once people begin to think of someone as a whining, carping idiot, it’s pretty hard to reverse that call.

    As for the recent threats and blandishments from Abbott and Mesma towards warning-off the Big Boys from any engagememt with the carbon trading scheme, that’s just silly.

    One thing you don’t want to do if you ever want to be a Liberal PM is to try and tell Mr. 1% how to run his business. No siree.

    They don’t like it one little bit.

    Make no mistake, there will be fallout from this and none of it good for the Libs.

    The Big Boys (save for some mining, tobacco and gambling interests) will probably close their cheque books. Hell, they already have if the recent ructions over the Liberal Federal Presidency are anything to go by.

    If Tones needs cash for his next election campaign, he’d best be very careful about what he says in terms of trying to put the frighteners onto those who, after all, own him and his party.

  8. [BK, the Wobblebys do not deserve to win this game]

    They didn’t deserve to beat the Springboks either. And the Frogs certainly didn’t deserve to win either.

    The All Blacks will kill the Frogs.

  9. NZ just look more solid and well drilled, not that I know much about Rugby.

    As for Hadley, being in SA I never hear him (fortunately), but his commentary seems adequate, but more suited to radio. Do we need to be told everything that we can see?

  10. Okay, so 21 mins to go, now.

    If we lose, does that mean we’re out of it? Or does that mean we’ve failed to out NZ on their home territory.

    I did hear earlier that we haven’t beaten NZ at Eden Park (?) since 1986.

    No time like the present. So, FFS, c’arn the Walls (pronounced Wolls); still time left. Give ’em a stinger with the wet ball.

  11. smithe

    The Libs honestly think they can force an early election. If you factor this in their statements make some twisted sense.

    Abbott seriously thought his CT amendment to delay until an election would force one. The delusion will end, it will be messy. But it is real.

  12. So, BK, put your heart into it, matey.

    Carn the Walls (pronounced Wolls)

    You need some AFL rooters.honestly.
    We’d get you over the line.

  13. Those of us who support the progressive side of politics are appalled by the thought of an Abbott led government, whether this be any time soon, or in 2013.

    However, it is not we who need convincing, it is the 7-8% of the electorate which make or break government out in the marginals.

    There are, to use the current cliche, a number of elephants in the room which progressive supporters sometimes do not like to face up to.

    *The next elections, will be for a third Term for Labor. These are hard to come by at the best of times.
    *Whether we PBers like it or not, some voters did not like the way Rudd was axed. While the purists have it that under the Westminster system we vote for a local member of a political party as part of representative democracy, many who voted in 2007 believed it was some kind of Presidential competition between Rudd and Howard and voted accordingly. Having “made” Rudd in 2007, Labor did not give these voters, according to them, the chance to either endorse Rudd or kick him out at a subsequent election. The near-run thing at the election called by JG is ample evidence of this, regardless of the so-called “lie” over the Carbon Tax – a so-say vote losing issue much over-rated.
    *The way Rudd was axed also irks some. Many, of course, were conservative crocodile -tear voters, but nonetheless, the same voters – with the aid of the conservative press – turned this into the nasty knifing of a popular leader by and untrustworthy Deputy.
    *Despite all the PM’s skills, she does not seem to be able to convince some voters that she has “presence”. The continuous carping about her looks, dress, voice and many other personal attributes are more than just nastiness from women haters.
    *The Labor brand has been damaged by its need to form government with small groups of individuals. This may be good for democracy but for Labor the message is becoming blurred after the indies and Greens have been accommodated.

    It is pointless blaming the media.

    They are not friends of Labor and never have been.

    For years Labor owned papers and ran radio stations to counter this self-same pro-conservative message. Labor has off-loaded its media interests years ago, but the conservative press is still out there.

    At the end of the day the most important thing is for Labor to govern. It must keep on its feet, continue to produce legislation and continue to confound its carping critics.

    The conservatives are not going to dump Abbott yet despite many wishful thinkers here. However, the conservatives are getting more frustrated, more angry and the more naked Abbott’s lust for power becomes apparent the more vulnerable he becomes.

  14. [Australia: 42 (A Uate 2, D Boyd 2, C Lawrence 2, K Galloway, W Tonga tries; J Thurston 4/7 conversions, C Smith 1/1 conversions)

    New Zealand: 6 (K Locke try; I Luke 1/1 conversions) ]

    🙂

  15. smithe
    There is so much anger building around the world against the big end of town scalping the little people.
    The time is ripe for the ALP to use this ‘vibe’ against Rabbott’s plan for households to wear the total cost subsidising the big end of town.

  16. [jeffemu
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    Hi all,

    Long time lurker, rare poster. But I think I should all warn in here before you get comfy to watch the Union.

    guess who is calling the big one for Channel nein. Yep its Ray Bloody Hadley.]

    As a southerner, our superficial take is that union is the more refined version, and league a bit crass. Somewhat borne out by outsider’s post.

    That’s why it struck me a bit odd that Hadley should be doing the gentleman’s game. Given his crass ignorance and vulgarity on politics, I’d have taken him for a league man. Still, Old Gloria got his start in union, and there’s nothing much refined about him.

    To Outsider, I worked with a bloke in SA (originally from NSW) who played union. Did fairly well, representing SA (which is not all that big a deal, given the interest in the game there).

    He always thought that union was a good reflection on life – containing all its diversities from brute vulgarity and thuggery,to subtle nuances and innovations and joys at triumphs. Sounds a bit like you described.

    I must say he was an unusual mix, singing in opera was his other hobby.

  17. ruawake

    ha ha i dont reference DT. the poll results are in for next years – its labor all the way. no buzz anymore. i want the ten year plan, not ten day. i also love the intolerance that underpins many contributors – all is sweet until you disagree.

    what was that? i think a butterfly just Portugal.

  18. GD
    [As a southerner, our superficial take is that union is the more refined version, and league a bit crass. Somewhat borne out by outsider’s post.

    That’s why it struck me a bit odd that Hadley should be doing the gentleman’s game. Given his crass ignorance and vulgarity on politics, I’d have taken him for a league man]
    We, and my ilk, must be more southern than you. 😆

    rugby a gentlemans game? sounds like cricket, the way it’s supposed to be played.

    It’d help if the scoring could be explained, but then again, probably not.

  19. [WA Governor Malcolm mcCusker makes a personal Donation to Telethon here in WA for $1 Million , Our Premier makes a Donation on behalf of the WA Govt – $350,000.]

    What’s the bet next year’s Telethon sees the govt pledging at least double that.

  20. [confessions

    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    WA Governor Malcolm mcCusker makes a personal Donation to Telethon here in WA for $1 Million , Our Premier makes a Donation on behalf of the WA Govt – $350,000.

    What’s the bet next year’s Telethon sees the govt pledging at least double that.
    ]

    Well considering 2012 is close to an election year in early 2013 anything could happen.

    WA Govt under Alan Carpenter did donate a $1.1 Million in 2007 to mark the 40th Year of Telethon.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Nh6zotlC0E

  21. [Denise Cook
    @SpudBenBean
    If LIBS disagree with Abbott they’re a broad church. If LAB does it, it’s a spill. #ABCnews quoting J Bishop to Uhlmann as FACT. #FFSABC
    20 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone]

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