Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

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  4. Sorry, guys
    What does 0-8 or 3-8 mean?

    Actually, don’t bother explaining; i’m sure you’ll tell me after the game

    Go Wallabies (or is that Kangaroos?) (Or is that being a heretic!!)

  6. [Australia’s Casey Stoner sealed the MotoGP world title on Sunday with his fifth consecutive victory at the Australian Grand Prix as he celebrated his 26th birthday in style.]

    Let the Kiwi’s win something. 🙂

  8. “blah 2 more days till Telstra NBN vote”

    Another milestone, if it passes.

    The other one for me, at the end of the year, will be the departure of Maurice Newman as Chairman of the ABC Board. He is the last of the Howard appointees apart from Scott, who sadly will be around for a good while longer due to some tricky Newman manoeuvring, I gather.

  9. kezza2
    [Or is that being a heretic!!]
    Not being a fan of ball sports I think moi has arrived at the wrong end of the day for the political goss. 😀

  10. [The Finnigans

    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    kez, it’s the Wobblebys
    ]

    Watch the media blame Julia cos she ggave them the kiss of death at the end of QT last Thursday.

  15. [Another milestone, if it passes. ]

    I think there is less chance of the sun not rising on Wednesday. The Telstra-NBN stuff is a done deal.

  16. kezza2
    [Speaking of heretics, have you heard the latest of Abbott?
    Wants to tear the economy a new one.]
    Is this about his threats to business, pensioners about repealing the the price on carbon?
    Haven’t seen or heard anything all day. Spent the day washing the exterior of the house, with the help of youngest daughter.

  18. I heard Abbott telling businesses not to plan on buying ct credits if wttee they wanted to make good business decisions.

    This crap soon has to be crossing some line about interfering with investment, surely?

  20. I have heard of house-proud but

    Spent the day washing the exterior of the house,

    takes the cake! Doesn’t it rain over there?

  21. Puff
    [This crap soon has to be crossing some line about interfering with investment, surely?]
    A lot of what Rabbott espouses crosses the line in some shape or form but am yet to hear someone really bowl him out on any of it.

  22. Dee
    [Haven’t seen or heard anything all day. Spent the day washing the exterior of the house, with the help of youngest daughter.]
    A more productive day that Tones could dream of. Think you’ll find he’s winging it north to help prevent indigenous jobs!

    But, yep, you’re right. He’s threatened just about every economic benefit known to the universe.

  25. [A more productive day that Tones could dream of. Think you’ll find he’s winging it north to help prevent indigenous jobs!]

    He still made time to indulge in some Government-bashing though, of course.

  26. Puff
    [I have heard of house-proud but

    Spent the day washing the exterior of the house,

    takes the cake! Doesn’t it rain over there?]
    It sure does rain!
    Our house is a weatherboard & you would have to see the before & after to see that it really needed doing.
    But, the motivation came down to this.
    If I don’t want to do a complete paint job sooner rather than later then washing is apparently part of the paint maintenance.

  28. [The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 7:39 pm | Permalink
    i will be very very very happy with 11-6 at half time]
    So, none of you can explain the scoring. Figures – we could only get head count with COTW & B (with wet tennis ball) as explained before. Is that how it works?

    But go Walls (or Kangas) anyway. don’t let the haka get ya down, especially when they lose half their body weight doing it, or somesuch!

  30. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    OK, OK, we will let the Sheeppen Shaggers win something #rwc2011
    1 minute ago

  32. Dee

    You bugger! Just noticed your avatar!

    Still, like it. Not as mesmerising, is it the southern cross up close and personal?

  33. Why can’t the rugby players pass the ball to someone who actually has some momentum? Don’t they like running and timing a pass?

  36. The longer it goes after the enactment of the Clean Energy legislation the more and more will Abbott be boxed in to a position of his own making.
    1. His pronouncement to not buy carbon credits will be neutered by market activity.
    2. The tax free threshold will be well and truly in place.
    3. Pensions and other compensations will have been increases and paid.
    4. Prices will not have gone up too much (apart from electricity and water, things that the government will no doubt explain have little to do with carbon pricing).
    5. Investments in clean energy will be in train.
    6. He will have to explain how he will ensure that, in the absence of compensations he will claw back, price increases in all goods and services will be restored to previous, uncompensated levels.
    7. He will have to explain his direct action costings and benefits – particularly as it applies to post 2020.

    Enjoy yourself, Tone.

  37. kezza2
    [Still, like it. Not as mesmerising, is it the southern cross up close and personal?]

    At first I tried a really amazing fungi picture that the eldest daughter took in the Canadian rockies but it looked like nothing on the gravatar.

  38. Finns

    [Diog, you idiot. you need intelligence to pass the ball]

    It’s a bit like watching walruses having a fight. Not too much flair and not too many smarts.

  39. Nice post Ian.

    There has been an awakening of sorts in many countries of late. Hence the Arab spring and now Occupy Wall Street movement. Whether it gathers more momentum remains to be seen

  41. i seem to remember that before the GFC, the so called “expurts” were saying if USA FARQed then China will be FARQed. Yet, China managed to de-couple herself and still grew by about 9%. I cant see how Europe would “severely” affect China.

    [Is the dragon running out of puff? – NEWS that the economic turmoil in Europe is severely affecting Chinese exports has set alarm bells ringing in Australia.The logic goes that if Chinese exports are crunched so will be Chinese demand for the Australian resources needed to make these exports. This resource demand is driving the fast part of Australia’s two-speed economy – the other part being pretty much in neutral.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/is-the-dragon-running-out-of-puff-20111015-1lqdh.html#ixzz1avv5dBkB

  42. Thank you, BK. Reckon he’s painted himself into a corner on AS, as well. In fact, I reckon as a politician, that being the art of what’s possible, he’s just not very good at it.

  43. is there a new politics/new economics site anywhere? polls are so passe – like state governments, and the major parties.

  46. I have never seen as much rubbish on any news report as I saw on ABC tonight. I hope my 8cents a day didn’t contribute to it.

    Oh well I suppose if your a Labor support anything to keep the polls where they are and the Liberal from chucking Abbott out is a good thing. Me I am fed up with it. SBS news is looking better and better.

  47. [izzie
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    I do hope JulieB never becomes PM. She has such a Miss Prim air about her and says “Julia Gillard” in a pursed mouth kind of way that is soooo condescending. The more I see of her, with her cat’s claw gestures and bitchy smile, the less I can tolerate her.
    Soory if any of you are fans 🙂 izzie
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    I do hope JulieB never becomes PM. She has such a Miss Prim air about her and says “Julia Gillard” in a pursed mouth kind of way that is soooo condescending. The more I see of her, with her cat’s claw gestures and bitchy smile, the less I can tolerate her.
    Soory if any of you are fans 🙂 ]

    A few years back, Glen thought she was pretty hot. When I reminded him of this a few months ago, he said he had long cooled off that idea.

  50. [victoria
    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    Anyone think leaking of cabinet discussions re asylum seeker policy was “strategic”?]

    Yes I do, and I was impressed a wide range of views were aired.

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