Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

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  1. BK

    Are you sure it was the suburb of Lalor which is in Harry’s electorate of Scullin, or in the the seat of Lalor, which is the PM’s seat?

  2. [Obviously read Bernard’s piece in Crikey yesterday. Trouble is they are wrong. Branding is yesterday’s news. With the 24hr news cycle even branding no longer applies. Bernard reckons we’ll go back to Rudd because his brand is ‘better’ but that is just as silly because his brand will be equally trashed (as it previously was) as soon as he regains the top job (which he won’t).]

    Its ironic. Labor gets blasted for being too poll-driven, but as soon as they get to governing in a way that’s less about ‘brand’ and being poll-driven etc:, they get judged on those same outdated standards. Maybe the press realised they missed it because having to think about things makes their brains hurt. And lemme guess, they’re going to return to Rudd because he’s Mr. Popular? *groan* I love how they ignore what’s actually going on to tell their own narrative.

  3. BK

    [arunta
    As I said earlier it is enjoyable and informative to watch so many senior public servants, and others, who are right on top of their game.
    It is also instructive as to how shallow are the stocks of talent in the Opposition.]
    Until the last week I have not bothered to sit and watch them.For me the most astounding things have been a) The seemingly endless line of Coal MP’s unable to express or maintain any coherent argument and who appear to know little or nothing about the topic they are persuing. b) How lucky we are to have the civil servants I’ve seen.

  4. [rishane

    No sooner would Rudd be back in the top job, that the msm would crucify him. I daresay he realises that too.]

    Of course. I imagine a lot of people in Labor (and no, not the ‘faceless men’ BS) are happier working under Gillard’s governing style than Rudd’s anyway.

  5. Victoria,
    We all despair at the MSM – non-stories, false information,opinion rather than news,dumbing down etc. You know it as well as anyone. That’s why I go beyond Fairfax and News for information – to a dozen web sites around the world like Daily Beast,etc. I don’t watch commercial TV or the ABC – get enough from Middleton at SBS ( a Gillard critic generally), the BBC and CNN sometimes. Don’t think we’ll ever go back to the days of Graham Perkin, Daffy Bowers,Wally Brown, Alain Reid etc for forensic journalism. Its over.

  6. [rishane

    No sooner would Rudd be back in the top job, that the msm would crucify him. I daresay he realises that too.]

    Too true Victoria. I remember ringing up the local ABC radio station and complaining at the time Rudd was replaced that in my 40 years of watching politics I had never seen such concerted “assassination-by media” campaign. However, I think that attacks on Gillard have been worse, fomented by Abbott and his cronies and the despicable Jones.

  7. [Lynchpin

    I have come to the conclusion that no matter who the leader of the ALP, the attacks would be the same.]

    Yes, so it comes down to who can withstand it the best. Gillard is very tough and I think has their measure. Combet is tough and would stand ant BS. Don’t know about Shorten and Smith. I’m not sure Rudd is thick skinned enough, as much as I admire him.

  8. The curtsy BS is just another variation on the Lizard of Oz stuff with Keating a few years back.

    I wonder if Abbott curtsies to Alan Jones before he goes in (to the studio)?

  9. [These newshounds have become junkyard dogs. And we are getting their regurgitated ‘tuckerbox’ and told it is gourmet cuts.]

    jenauthor – top comment. I don’t think many of them know how to dissect or understand policy enough to write about it anymore. It’s so easy to write the absolute junk we are getting. The sooner they all go behind a paywall , the better.

  10. [Yes, so it comes down to who can withstand it the best. Gillard is very tough and I think has their measure. Combet is tough and would stand ant BS. Don’t know about Shorten and Smith. I’m not sure Rudd is thick skinned enough, as much as I admire him.]

    Good point. It probably irks some that JG can stay cool under an incredible amount of pressure. And nothing against Rudd there, it’d be hard for anyone in that situation.

  11. Curtsying today is not required, which even the shock jock on 2GB admits, and indeed supports.

    Yet he is still banging on about it.

    It was “such a little thing” to do, opined the shock jock. Why couldn’t she, just this once, put ideology to one side? If she had curtseyed then no-one would have said a thing about it. Proves Gillard has a tin ear for politics and therefore unfit for office.

    One woman on the news with a plummy voice said QB was “so gracious and dignified”, contrasting her with JG who “wobbled up and shook hands”, and didn’t even wear a hat and gloves. QED.

    Of course if Giullard had curtsyed, the same shock jock and the same plummy mouth would have been saying what a damn hypocrite she was – being a staunch republican and all that – and how she disgraced the nation, Ju-LIAR, not having the courage of her convictions, etc. etc. How typical of this woman!

    God help us if they ever find out whether the dunny paper in the Lodge is “over” or “under” on the toilet roll.

  12. [I wonder if Abbott curtsies to Alan Jones before he goes in (to the studio)?]

    You dummy! You only curtsy to a Queen…

    Oh, I get it…

  13. [God help us if they ever find out whether the dunny paper in the Lodge is “over” or “under” on the toilet roll.]
    BB
    Or whether she is a folder or a scruncher!

  14. [God help us if they ever find out whether the dunny paper in the Lodge is “over” or “under” on the toilet roll.]
    Definitely “over”. Toilet rolls faster under a Labor government.

  15. [God help us if they ever find out whether the dunny paper in the Lodge is “over” or “under” on the toilet roll.]

    BB, which is it? I can never remember. My brother, an architect, explained to me once that according to the law of physics it rolls better depending on whether it is over or under. Do you know?

  16. Here is a nice contribution to the WA news site arising from story about Allan Asher’s resignation. English might be the contributor’s second language.

    “Rid The World Of; gillard and the brown snake of Perth Posted at 11:18 AM Today

    There must be questions about the validity and the integrity of the governement, speculation must lead to the fact that gillard could be a green in disguise. It could well be that she is in fact a ALP infiltrator and the cracks are starting to appear with regard to this. You only have to listen to brown’s back up and diversionist type of responses. Why is he always on the wings of any major development with some fippant or diversionistic type of comment. I’m extremely suspicious that this government has made a political coup by deciet and devious means and are in fact greens not ALP members. Think about it all Australians it is not outwith the realms of reality with the political system we have here.”

  17. [BB, which is it? I can never remember. My brother, an architect, explained to me once that according to the law of physics it rolls better depending on whether it is over or under. Do you know?]

    We scientists like to keep open minds on these things. At Chez Bushfire, controversy rages.

    HI is an “overs” girl, but I am an “unders” kind of guy. It’s a matter of whether you pull the paper downwards (unders) or pull it out (overs).

    The peer reviewed research is ambiguous on the point.

    More importantly, what would the Queen do? Someone must know…

  18. [Morgan – LNP 53.5 (+1), ALP 46.5 (-1)]

    Compared with what? Morgan has recently had an annoying habit (and bad psephologically, I would have thought) of comparing one week’s face to face with the previous week’s phone poll and vice versa.

    Also, is this respondent-allocated or as per the last election?

    So many questions, so little answered in a way that gives Morgan any credibility these days …

  19. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 4:15 pm | Permalink
    rishane

    No sooner would Rudd be back in the top job, that the msm would crucify him. I daresay he realises that too.]

    Only if they had sufficient time. It’s generally agreed that if Rudd took over again he would have the benefit of a short honeymoon period.

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