Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, down from 58-42 last time. Consistent with other recent polling, it has Labor’s primary vote recovering from unprecedented lows, up three points to 30 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 48 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are basically steady (approval up one to 33 per cent, disapproval steady on 62 per cent), but she has halved her deficit on preferred prime minister, now trailing 44-48 rather than 40-48. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 41 per cent and up two on disapproval to 54 per cent. The poll includes yet another bad result for Julia Gillard against Kevin Rudd, who leads 61 per cent to 30 per cent, but Nielsen has at least done her a favour in extending the question to the Liberal leadership, which has Malcolm Turnbull on 44 per cent and Tony Abbott far behind on 28 per cent, with Joe Hockey also competitive on 23 per cent.

The News Limited tabloids also carry a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents which has it at 58-42, from primary votes of 51 per cent for the Coalition, Labor on 29 per cent and the Greens on 12 per cent. Attitudinal questions produce familiar results: support for the carbon tax is at 34 per cent against 57 per cent opposed, and Kevin Rudd holding a 53 per cent to 29 per cent lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader. On the question of whether Tony Abbott would have a mandate to abolish the carbon tax if elected, the results are 60 per cent yes and 29 per cent no.

UPDATE: Essential Research shows no change on voting intention: the Coalition continues to lead 48 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. There is some relatively good news for the Prime Minister on the monthly measure of leaders’ personal ratings, in the shape of an 11-point improvement in her net approval rating after a disastrous showing in the September 12 poll. Gillard’s approval is up six points to 34 per cent and her disapproval down five to 59 per cent, and her deficit on better prime minister is down from four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent) to one (39 per cent to 38 per cent). Tony Abbott’s ratings have recorded no significant change: his approval and disapproval are both up one, to 40 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

A question on carbon tax gives the government slightly better results than the Galaxy poll, with 39 per cent supporting and 53 per cent opposed, but effectively unchanged on Essential’s survey of September 19. This continues a pattern where Essential Research’s online panel methodology has consistently produced less unfavourable results on this issue than phone polls. Essential also gave respondents three options for what should happen to the tax if Labor is defeated at the next election, finding 34 per cent in favour of a double dissolution to secure the repeal of the tax, with 33 per cent prepared to allow that the tax should remain “if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution”. Twenty-one per cent felt it should remain in any case “to provide certainty for individuals and business”. Respondents were also asked to take their pick from 12 options to describe the positions taken by the leaders on asylum seekers, and the results provide consistently unflattering reading for Julia Gillard. The bitterest pill would be that she outscored Tony Abbott on both “too soft” (21 per cent to 7 per cent) and “too hard” (10 per cent to 6 per cent). Abbott even managed to record an effectively equal score to Gillard on his traditional negative of “just playing politics” (47 per cent to Gillard’s 46 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,267 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition; Galaxy 58-42”

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  2. [HI is an “overs” girl, but I am an “unders” kind of guy. It’s a matter of whether you pull the paper downwards (unders) or pull it out (overs).]

    BB, interesting. I am “unders” as well. I think it spins more slowly, therefore conserving toilet paper and mitigating against those uncomfortable occasions when one runs out and must waddle to the tissue box.

    I am sure Betty Windsor never runs out though. And I reckon she is an “unders” as well.

  3. [Barnaby could have roseacea.]

    Differential diagnosis.

    Joyce’s ruddy complexion could also be the result of the demon drink:

    [Alcohol causes your arteries to widen, but you may also have a genetic predisposition to this happening. Doctors call this “Alcohol Flush Reaction” and it is caused by your body not being able to properly break down alcohol.

    A number of molecules break down alcohol in your liver and one of them is called alcohol dehydrogenase. As it becomes less able to do its job, toxic substances enter your blood stream and this can cause flushing.]

  4. [It’s generally agreed that if Rudd took over again he would have the benefit of a short honeymoon period.]

    Yes, all of about 2 hours.

  5. The parents of those little girls curtsying to the Queen should be charged with child abuse.
    Fancy teaching your kid an accident of birth makes someone better than you.

  6. [As it becomes less able to do its job, toxic substances enter your blood stream and this can cause flushing.]

    …could the toxic substance be Toxic Tony?

    😆

  8. Thanks for the link, Ruawake.

    Wasn’t last week’s the one that everyone said might have been a rogue?

    Interesting then that it is still up on the fortnight before …

    Having said that, though, it is still bouncing around in MOE territory. But while it is not going backwards, all is good in Patient Julialand, and getting dodgy in Impatient Tonyland.

  11. Item 7 of 7 on front page OO online (you know those happy little snaps accompanying a story) shows Abbott’s very own Pell kissing the Pope’s ring (a long Catholic tradition afforded papal rings).

    But the ignorance of papal protocol has the caption reading, Pell kissing the pontiff’s hand. Or maybe they got all squirmy over the inference of “ring” in aussie colloquialism

  12. Trust me. The average Aussie – as distinct from the toffee nosed conservative element that still hasn’t arrived in the 21st century (and would never vote Labor anyway) – couldn’t give a shit whether Julia curtseyed or not. So why are we getting our knickers in a twist over what the MSM says about it?

  18. [But the ignorance of papal protocol has the caption reading, Pell kissing the pontiff’s hand. Or maybe they got all squirmy over the inference of “ring” in aussie colloquialism]

    I think saying he was kissing the Pope’s hand is a misrepresentation of the substance of what Pell does all the time.

  19. gloryconsequence @ 3092:

    [So Australia’s most senior naval officer says Abbott’s “turning back the boats” policy is ridiculous. I don’t know many people, regardless of political leaning, that advocate Abbott’s nonsense “turn ‘em back” slogan.]

    If Labor wins the next election, the Chief of Navy, Vice-Admiral Griggs, will be probably end up as Chief of the Defence Force.

    If the Tories win, he’ll be reduced in rank to seaman & discharged services no longer required.

    Maybe it’s a good omen for Labor that the most senior serving naval officer has entered AS debate.

  21. [Maybe it’s a good omen for Labor that the most senior serving naval officer has entered AS debate.]

    …and also a good omen that the News Ltd press reported it.

    Slap on wrist time for Tony Abbott. It would be wonderful if it snowballed into a leadership challenge, but sadly I think that is wishful thinking.

  25. Pell was definitely not kissing the Popes hand. As the Wikipedia bible states re the Pope
    😀

    [Today, Catholics pay respect to the reigning Pope by kneeling before him and kissing his ring.]

  26. Hi Bludgers
    The wingnutt has come to the point where he is like a bucket of prawns in the sun,everything he says and does,everything about him stinks to high heaven

  27. [Their ABC 24 reporting on Curtseygate – with a pom gerbilist saying the toffs in England will be upset.

    Jebus wept.]

    Oh, FFS.

    She is just a woman who has had the very good luck to have been born into a certain family.

    She possesses no special skills; she isn’t healing the dying or personally ministering to the sick and infirm, neither is she (as far as I can tell) the world’s greatest philanthropist.

    Why ANYONE should bow and scrape to someone for no other reason than they are PRIVILEGED is anathema to our egalitarian society, and anyone who tries to hold opposing “I’m a republican”/”She should have curtsied to the Queen” positions are either BS artists, partisans hacks of the highest order – or both.

  28. Socrates:

    […Mrs Windsor]

    How original!

    The only thing you forgot was to put “Betty” between the “Mrs” and “Windsor.”

  29. Perhaps June DWatkins should take a cold shower. She should read Welsh/English history and realise that the Welsh, even tho Charlie is the Prince of Wales, do not necessarily kowtow to an English Queen.

    Ask my OH – he wouldn’t even stand up for God Save the Queen in the piccies when he came over here. Wasn’t done in Wales.

  30. [Today, Catholics pay respect to the reigning Pope by kneeling before him and kissing his ring.]

    Was Mr Pell kneeling or bending over?

  31. […and also a good omen that the News Ltd press reported it.

    Slap on wrist time for Tony Abbott. It would be wonderful if it snowballed into a leadership challenge, but sadly I think that is wishful thinking.]

    And combined with his comments on China/Japan. Its ‘amazing’ how quickly he says dumb things when he’s forced to outline Coalition ‘policy’ rather than do nothing but bash Labor and say Coalition ideas will come out ‘in good time’.

  33. Abbott and the Coalition, natural rulers that they are, now know better than:

    * Treasury
    * The Immigration Department
    * The CSIRO
    * The Bureau of Meteorology
    * The Reserve Bank
    * Australian business leaders
    * The World’s Climate scientists
    * The Assembled Finance Ministers of the G20
    * Malaysian government
    * Indonesian government
    * China
    * The UK
    * The Head of the Navy

    The only ones who know any more than the Coalition are the Opinionistas, Rupert Murdoch, The Pope.

  35. [The only ones who know any more than the Coalition are the Opinionistas, Rupert Murdoch, The Pope.]

    …and George Pell, Kisser of the Papal Ring.

  36. BH

    The Aussie wannabes should realise that the English have moved on from those deeply Victorian traditions. It’s always “the colonies” that are the last to realise it.

  37. [How long can it be before Abbott condemns Gillard for not curtsying?]

    BB, I am sure Textor is running a focus group on it as we speak, so we should have the answer in a day or two.

  40. From the JD-W web site (yes, there is one):

    [Learn to be generous, open minded, kind and decent in your attitude towards others. These emotions will eventually be reflected in your face and will attract people to you.

    Your gentle nature, warm heart and ability to live easily with the people around you, make you lovely to know.

    Every moment you have the opportunity to create that lasting loveliness in your character and personality by the way you think, act and talk.]

    http://www.jdw.com.au/view_page.asp?intsectionid=6

  42. poroti

    [How lucky we are to have the civil servants I’ve seen.]

    Yes and I am very sorry that Allan Asher thought it necessary to resign. Apparently he is very highly thought of.

  44. For what a Morgan Face to Face poll is worth, the result is 53.5/46.5 on respondent allocated preferences, moving to 51.5/48.5 based on actual preference flows at the 2010 election (on the latter measure, last week’s Morgan was 50/50).

    William would offer more insight on the statistical relevance of 2 polls in successive weeks showing an averaged “last election 2pp allocation” around 51/49. My suspicion is that it provides some validation of quite a shift back to Labor, with both polls taken together, and after adjusting for the Morgan FTF bias, maybe a “real” result around the 53/47 or 54/46 mark. What will be more interesting is if the other polls over the next couple of weeks confirm this movement or not – given that we have been running for a while at 57/43 or thereabouts, a move in to around 53/47 at this stage of the electoral cycle would give the Government significant renewed optimism, especially in anticipation of 1 July, when the carbon tax dollars start flowing through to voters, and they will then fully abosrb the fact that Abbott’s policy is to take that money back from them.

  45. At some stage during the holy sacrament of Confirmation, in my wayward, force-fed Catholic youth, I had to kiss the bishop’s ring.

    Assuming that ancient custom is still carried out, I wonder if the pope kissed Pell’s ring.

    Abbott would probably have to greet Pell with a ring kiss too.

    Goodness me, that’s a whole lot of ring kissing going down over the centuries.

  47. Lynchpin @ 3221:

    [Maybe it’s a good omen for Labor that the most senior serving naval officer has entered AS debate.

    …and also a good omen that the News Ltd press reported it.

    Slap on wrist time for Tony Abbott. It would be wonderful if it snowballed into a leadership challenge, but sadly I think that is wishful thinking.]

    I hope Abbott suffers politically for his stupid stance but the best hope for Labor in my view is that he’s still LOTO at the next election.

  48. OT, but nicely so: Durham Cathedral: Readers’ choice for Britain’s best building High on a hill with the castle, almost entirely surrounded by river, it towers above the landscape. Pure Norman (completed 1133) it’s a superb gem where Normans learnt how to build a stone vaulted nave across vast space; set in a stunning “Cathedral Close” of gothic and later buildings, including part of the university (& its antiquities museum). Burial place of great Saxons: Venerable Bede (d 735), Cuthbert (d 687) and the head of Saxon martyr St Oswald (d 642); burial place of the Nevilles of Raby Castle (Westmorland, in Shakespeare’s Henry V is a Neville). Saxon jewellery, Norman wall paintings, ancient illuminated gospels, needlework and other artifacts. Used in quite a few English dramas, esp crime – Wire in the Blood, one (name forgotten) in which Stephen Fry was a uni porter (& Baddie).

    If you’re visiting the UK and haven’t been to Durham, I recommend it – also a good base to do Hadrian’s Wall (& lots more Roman); plenty of famous castles & old buildings; Beamish Museum & the Georgian North (esp you’re into the Industrial Rev, trains, trams etc); Shildon “locomotive” campus of the National Railway Museum.

  49. lizzie – I reckon the Queen is more modern than the conservatives in Oz. She readily accepted Tim into the Palace (a shacked up bloke according to shockjockland) because she had accepted that her oldest son, her daughter and her grandson had all ‘shacked up’ before marriage.

    Over here the conservatives think Tim shouldn’t even attend functions with his beloved.

    Funny old world!

  50. Channel 9 now reporting in their News promo there is UPROAR over the Prime Minister’s refusal to curtsey. They forgot to mention it’s only the cretins amongst us who are complaining.

    I actually think this will do Julia no harm at all. Indeed it will probably earn her a few brownie points from the dinki di Aussies..

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