The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
[Bolt is about as low as you can get running that story.]
When you have a very reasonable, basically conservative thinking person such as DavidWH saying this, I suspect that will be the reaction of most fair minded people. It’s called jumping the shark.
Cuppa
The govt need to tick off three things
The CT legislation
MRRT legislation
And for Telstra shareholders meeting to take place in October.
i never saw the lord of the rings, gosh i may see if i can get that down loaded on my new i pad when it comes.
is that possible
victoria,
I think maybe this time, they have crossed a line.
Burgey is right, it makes the whole Thomson thing look overly confected, losing its cred. The Australian really has pushed shit uphill at a time when the hackgate affair has left people wondering is it happening here and they are now more aware of the total ownership of news by Murdoch.
This might have repercussions Murdoch might have wanted to avoid right now.
well its up to us to ring and write to sen, conroys office,
Pride goeth before a fall. The bigger they are the harder they fall.
Pure smear campaigns based on nothing of substance have a habit of back-firing. They must have been so carried away with the way the Thomson issues was going that excitement got in the way of common sense. They should think back to 2007 when everything thrown at Rudd just improved his standing.
Idiots.
[The CT legislation
MRRT legislation
And for Telstra shareholders meeting to take place in October]
then do howard stuff, either nothing, or sweets for the biscuit barrel
nice lovley things the libs understand, no changes they dont get that
as the majority still live in around 1958
DavidWH
I believe in the short term this is damaging the govt. The polls will be even worse for the govt in the short term and this will feed into their narrative that this is a bad govt.
I just received a phone call. Recorded message. Said press one to hear this free message or nine to reject it. I pressed nine. Has anyone else received such a call?
yes we hope david wh repersents the may be swinging voters.
or level headed liberals
what was it about, what ashame you didnt press to listen,
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@
LULZ!! RT @Kimbo_Ramplin They should have a new category at the #walkleys … The #Milne Perpetual Trophy for Services to F@#kwitism
]
[Pride goeth before a fall]
well said
Victoria,
Yes those items you listed are high priority. They need to be bedded down asap to help defuse them as issues. However the media – it’s almost total bas to one side, and lack of diversity – harms not only the government but democracy itself. It’s in everyone’s interests, even those on the right, to bring the Fourth Estate to health. The longer this is delayed, the deeper the damage.
my say
If it was something important, why give me a choice to listen to the message?
Austalians are basically fair minded. They also come to realise when they are being manipulated. It may take time but when they start to wake up to what is going on it may not be very pretty for Tone and his gang of followers.
OzPol @ 195
Thank you for that summary. It clears up a couple of points I wasn’t sure of, i.e. which Victorians went to Qld and became Joh-lovers. My parents lived near Gympie for a while and they were certainly sucked in. 🙁
It turns out the that:
(1) ‘The Australian’ is under increasing pressure to re-sack Milne.
(2) Mr Abbott is under some sort of increasing pressure from the remaining few who are still sane in his parliamentary party.
(3) Mr Stevens is under increasing pressure to stop Mr Abbott verballing him.
(4) Mr Abbott is under increasing pressure to stop lying about Mr Thomson.
(5) The MSM is under increasing pressure to start having a look at what the
(6) Mr Joyce is under increasing pressure to stop calling Mr Abbott ‘compassionate’. Government has achieved rather than on who said what about whom in the polinfotainment industry.
(6) Mr Bolt is under increasing pressure to stop dredging up 16 year old muck.
(7) Mr Jones is under increasing pressure to start telling the truth about the convoy of ill-consequences for Mr Jones.
(8) Mr Abbott is under increasing pressure to get his schatological fixations under control
(9) Mr Abbott is under increasing pressure to stop lying about the independents.
(9) Mr Rudd is under increasing pressure to make a still-better cup of tea, and to enjoy his dinner with Mr Jones.
Meanwhile, back in the real world:
Our mining boom, 83% of which industry is owned o/s, is busting our chops.
Gary I just believe in fairness. It disgusts me when these types of smears are used and I don’t care who is doing the smearing. People get what they deserve when they back-fire.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@
LULZ!! RT @Kimbo_Ramplin hey should have a new category at the #walkleys … The #Milne Perpetual Trophy for Services to F#@kwitism
[Kimbo_Ramplin Kimberley Ramplin
If #Milne ever gets another opinion piece published by #thedrum they can get f#@ked as well.
]
Boerwar
Hear hear
[Gary I just believe in fairness. It disgusts me when these types of smears are used and I don’t care who is doing the smearing. People get what they deserve when they back-fire.]
I agree. Which is why I hope Labor does not retaliate in kind.
BB
[Milne wrote that this accusation was the most heavily “lawyered” piece he’s ever written, and he still f**ked it up!]
Milne really is a fool if he trusted lawyers when what he needed was the advice of some ordinary folk who were capabable of common sense and a sense of human decency.
He was never going to get that from lawyers.
I read the Milne article this morning, and by the standards set by the OO, I thought it unremarkable.
It was here, but has been pulled –
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/pm-a-lost-cause-for-warring-unions/story-e6frgd0x-1226124001057
While Milne is responsible for writing the crap, the fact he put that “heavily lawyered” bit at the start of that paragraph should have been a red flag for the editors.
The Australian are responsible for what gets published, not the journalist.
4 corners tonight – we are seeing this being played out right here, right now
[About The Program
An examination of the scandals plaguing the Murdoch media empire – has the company been humiliated by rogue journalists operating in isolation or was the phone hacking and information theft approved higher up?
]
gary
i think labor will hold the line
It should be noted that the Coalition primary vote moved between 35-44% (newspoll) through all of 2001 until 911. This produced a 6% jump in coalition support and they then slid back over the next 8 weeks to win the election (but not a majority of the TPP) with 43.1% primary.
Sprocket,
Just saw a journo on ABC say some 15 people, many with links to crime, have now been arrested.
Next appearance before parliament is into who knew what.
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2011/08/we-think-rich-are-too-rich-but-theyre.html
How the public underestimates economic inequality in Australia.
@ 232
2001 2pp was Coalition 51.03 ALP 48.97
Coalition took GST to 1998 election and won without winning majority of 2pp
1998 2pp Coalition 49.02 ALP 50.98
As always, this headline is a little misleading.
Natural disasters lead to anxiety – that’s not news.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-29/climate-change-linked-to-mental-health-problems/2860150
NBN is bad mmmkayyyy!!!!
Can Gillard sue Milne ( and Bolt)? I assume it would be stupendously bad politics – or maybe she has nothing to lose.
what did glenn write?
Glen @ 239,
A load of shite, as per usual – this time it was defamatory shite though.
Sounds like someone is trying to get attention…his irrelevance to Australian journalism is complete me thinks.
Bill Shorten announcing changes to financial advisors. Presser on ABC
Most of it is still on Bolt’s blog if you really want to read it.
Wonder how Jack TI is feeling this morning.
There is little doubt that climate change is going to lead to massive ill health on a global scale.
Starving, being flooded out of your home etc, etc, will do that for you.
No brainer.
[It has nothing to do with being female, and everything to do with
a. She backstabbed Rudd
b. Citizen’s assembly
c. Fake and real Julia
d. Lies]
Bulls^it, dovif!
The above (& more) also fit Abbott more closely & frequently when you swap “Turnbull” for “Rudd” and “Tony” for “Julia”. Besides, since his uni days, Abbott has “form” as nasty to those who oppose him (even dying men) and an aggressive sexist pest when confronted by strong women. His obscene aggression towards Nicola Roxon (caught on camera) and nastiness to dying Bernie Banton (ditto) added to the extent of Howard’s 2007 defeat.
Julia broke ONE election promise.
That Abbott’s election promises (with their A$7-11 Billion “Black Hole”) were fully funded, was a Great Big Compound Lie! His over-the-top bribes (esp the billion he offered Wilkie for a A$500 million project) & outrageous ambition scared off Indies Oakshott, Windsor & Wilkie, all of whom seriously doubted his honesty. He even confessed to Kerry O’Brien that we couldn’t trust his word unless it was “scripted and rehearsed”. Now we discover that Abbott – a well-known deal welsher – has also lied to Katter, welshing on a deal which was in writing & signed!
Abbott was going to be in The Lodge by November 2010. Today’s 29 August 2011!
Abbott’s Just say NO! would stop the Gillard government’s legislation. Yet he has failed to amend so much as one tiny part of any Bill!
In QT, Abbott & his Front Benchers constantly call the government a “Do Nothing” government. In fact, it’s introduced 181+ bills since Election10, and passed every one of them without amendment.
Be honest. Abbott’s not only an outrageous hypocrite, he couldn’t lie straight even in a well-fitted coffin.
[Can Gillard sue Milne ( and Bolt)? I assume it would be stupendously bad politics – or maybe she has nothing to lose.]
You can’t sue excrement in our legal system… that’s exactly what Milne and Bolt would love, the appearance of someone “trampling” over their right to be dickheads
OzPol
[introduced 181+ bills since Election10, and passed every one of them without amendment.]
How embarrassment Mr Abbott.
Lizzie,
Why do you ask that?
Boerwar
At first glance, I thought the article might be referring to mental health problems in those who refuse to admit there is any truth in AGW predictions. 😀
[217 victoria
Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 11:33 am | Permalink
my say
If it was something important, why give me a choice to listen to the message?]
Well i may have done the same thing, i am was just thinking may be it was some sort of politcal message
i wouldnt be surprised at any thing any more thats all.