The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
Steve Gibbons to retire at the next election
[
Bendigo Federal MP Steve Gibbons has announced he will not seek Labor’s next federal pre-selection for the Bendigo Federal Electorate and will retire at the next Federal Election due some time in 2013.
He said the current Federal Parliament shows every indication of running the full three year term and that will mean a Parliamentary career spanning close to fifteen years.
]
http://www.stevegibbonsmp.com/media-centre/media/retirement-announcement/
lizzie
[Shouldn’t Bolt also issue an apology for his smears?]
Went over to Bolt A blog page and at the bottom of it was
[UPDATE
Milne’s story is removed from the Australian’s website and an apology is printed: ]
The full The Australian apology was also printed. Also a copy of Bill Leak’s great cartoon.
poroti
Yes, I saw that, but I didn’t consider it an apology from Bolt himself. It made him look ‘fair’ to his followers, but not to me. I shan’t forgive him for his negative effect on the AGW ‘debate’.
Full Milne Article:
http://iw.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/InfoWeb?p_action=doc&p_theme=aggdocs&p_topdoc=1&p_docnum=1&p_sort=YMD_date:D&p_product=AWNB&p_docid=139695D1AF6C9C18&p_text_direct-0=document_id=%28%20139695D1AF6C9C18%20%29&p_multi=AUSB&s_lang=en-US&p_nbid=D5DF49TAMTMxNDU3ODgxMi4zNDA1MzU6MToxMjoxNTIuOTEuOS4xOTY
dovif,
You left out the final page on your Murder Mystery thriller.
Howasrd was re elected.
As will Gillard.
And we all lived happily ever after.
[As I said before many times, you can make a comparison with Carbon tax and the GST. Howard had his worst poll, 9 month after the beginning of the GST, and the transition to the GST was smooth.]
What compensation did the GST give to people?
Will the OO haver to sack Milne again?
[latingle Laura Tingle
So here is the ultimate extension of current stupid politics. Somebody else did something wrong (allegedly) about which the PM knew.. 1/2]
[latingle Laura Tingle
2/2 nothing. But it is all a reflection on her judgement, nonetheless, that said alleged things happened
]
Bolt is about as low as you can get running that story.
Laura Tingle going to town on Milne/Bolt/OO
[ latingle Laura Tingle
So here is the ultimate extension of current stupid politics. Somebody else did something wrong (allegedly) about which the PM knew.. 1/2
latingle Laura Tingle
2/2 nothing. But it is all a reflection on her judgement, nonetheless, that said alleged things happened
5 minutes ago
latingle Laura Tingle
Andrew Bolt is a source. “Gillard hersefl is not accused of any misbehaviour…but her judgement will come under question” . Oh please!
latingle Laura Tingle
@ there was embezzlement of money by others WHICH OF COURSE NO-ONE IS SUGGESTING JG knew about but THAT’S NOT THE POINT (needless to say)
11 minutes ago ]
Well said Laura Tingle
[Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Too funny! RT @MattCowgill: @Pollytics @timdunlop they understand Glenn Milne, because they own him. etc etc etc]
Twitter having fun at Milne’s and the OO’s expense.
Bolt is not stupid. He is dangerous. He knows there is nothing to this story. It is all about perception. What is the govt response?
I thought Milne had already been sacked from the OO.
Quality performance from the OO to dump an article and retract and apologise on the same morning it was published. Standards are still at the bottom of the barrel there.
you would have to think that News Ltd has got a death wish allowing Milne’s slander to be published. i suspect their lawyers are going to make a pretty penny shortly
[A small point but one that indicates the pressure is beginning to show on Gillard as she desperately searches for points of deflection. During the same press conference she also vainly tried to defend Thomson’s decision not to make a statement to the parliament on the facts. We all know why; if he lies he’s finished as an MP and Gillard is washed up as Prime Minister. Gillard and Thomson are shackled together just as surely as two First Fleet convicts.]
Does anyone know if Milne’s article was published in the paper version of The Australian? Or was it just an online story?
William,
If you are about can you delete my #154. And this one. Thanks
Looks like the only judgment being called into question is the editors of the Australian, not Julia’s.
@Dio I thought OO was always at the bottom of the barrel?
cyril,
It’s in the hard copy.
Likely to be their most popular edition for some time.
Dio,
I’d say he is a contractor who supplies copy once a week.
MadCyril 140) The link to Andrew Bolt, enabled me to have a look at it, what a disgusting article, and the comment below it are equally disgusting. I had a look on pge 3 guess what the retraction was because of the Government??? Are any comments published that are anti? Isent one doubt if it will be publshed
Thanks GG
The dinner the PM had with News Ltd went really well
madcyril’s link to the CT is well worth a read, IMHO.
It strenthens the theory of Mr Abbott as a one-man MAD.
Mr Abbott either runs the place or destroys it. He either runs the place or destroys himself. He either runs the place or he destroys Ms Gillard.
Quite clearly, the Coalition has a sociopath on the loose.
Sociopaths do not have a good track record in government.
It is time the MSM started having a very serious look at the psychiatric state of the LOTO.
The Australian’s finest journalists…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlzDHY9CRB8
Milne wrote that this accusation was the most heavily “lawyered” piece he’s ever written, and he still f**ked it up!
Does this mean that we will soon see an apology to the various real estate agents, second-hand car dealers, smalltime businessmen, lurk merchants and white-shoe’d dodgy chancers of Ipswich who, comprising the shadowy “Ipswich Inc.” (with Kevin Rudd as its secret chairman) Milne accused of being the REAL rulers of this country back in 2008?
I’d like to see that.
Milne gives spivs and shonks a bad name. They should form a convoy and picket Holt St.
[you would have to think that News Ltd has got a death wish allowing Milne’s slander to be published.]
Dare I suggest that they ‘have some hard questions to answer?’
dont you love stephen mayne
News Ltd goal is for the polling to be so bad this week for the govt. Then they can try and scuttle the carbon tax legislation with the narrative of how unpopular it all is.
Just in case anyone didn’t realise it, the reason Australia is currently farked is because we have a PM who is not married, deliberately barren and has a large earlobes and a barge arse.
Obviously if Kevin Rudd was still PM everything would be going swimmingly.
Jesus wept.
[It is time the MSM started having a very serious look at the psychiatric state of the LOTO.]
Video just in of what Abbott’s craving for the prime ministership has done to him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk4Ntcq5uNg
Just a thought – did News Ltd’s Col Allen use shareholder money to pay for his visit to Scores in New York with Kevin Rudd and others? Was it a News Ltd corporate credit card? Can shareholders ask how much of their (shareholders) money does News Ltd spend each year on such “entertainment”?
Double standards, double standards
Remember, the NOTW demise started with the alleged behaviour of “only one” rogue reporter.
DL
Australia is farked because the miners are going to be taxed a little more and the NBN is going to affect Murdoch’s bottom line. Also the gaming industry is afraid of losing some monies from gambiling addicts. Boy, we should feel sorry for these billionaires.
Bolt and Milne is doing their bidding. Make no mistake. When will the Aussie public wake up, or is it going to be too late, just like their US counterparts?
Greensborough Growler
The election Howard won was about 2 years after the introduction of the GST, Gillard will have one year, Howard would have lost the election, if it was held at that time
Gary
There was large tax cuts that accompanied the GST, as well as Sales tax reduction
For anyone interested Richard Fydler in Conversation hour on ABC is currently interviewing Andrew Robb about his depression – he is being very frank.
[Bolt is not stupid. He is dangerous. He knows there is nothing to this story. It is all about perception. What is the govt response?]
Yup it is all about perception, and to me that seems to be the beginning and end of the Coalitions game plan. Actually its about negative perception. Trying to create a perceptual reality out there in which ANYTHING about the Govt is seen as bad and hoping that perception is carried by the voters into the ballot box.
Tho Opposition meanwhile is shielded from scrutiny but the meme is that they cant be as bad as the govt.
It’s an interesting model being played out, at the moment to an extreme. Its certainly the model that the media owners would like to prevail since if it was seen to work it would cement the “authority” of the media in terms of deciding political outcomes.
Unless and until the journo’s in Aust say enough, about the only credible response by the Govt in the short term is to just get on with their legislative program and hope that the electorate is not as stupid and easily led as the current polling makes it appear.
Mid term they need to muscle up and have a good look at concentration of media ownership.
BB,
I can only think that ‘permission’ to run that article came from someone higher than the editor.
Danny Lewis
It has nothing to do with being female, and everything to do with
a. She backstabbed Rudd
b. Citizen’s assembly
c. Fake and real Julia
d. Lies
When you accompanished those things within 4 months of being made leader, how are you suppose to ask people to respect you. She get no respect not because she is a female, she gets no respect because she is bad in her job
the person who invented the internet which has mostly good points.
deserves the noble peace prise as i am sure lots of things have been stopped through the people knowing and also the invention of tweeting.
O what the dutch underground and the french underground would done for this,
instead of bit of coat hanger wire sticking out of a received under a floor in an attic the trap door and floor area i saw for my self.
just thinking back and its oh ,ohs dads birthday to day ( anniversary of }
as i say dont read the libs but i thought i was reading someelse
they sound a bit desperate today ,
[Just in case anyone didn’t realise it, the reason Australia is currently farked is because we have a PM who is not married, deliberately barren and has a large earlobes and a barge arse.
Obviously if Kevin Rudd was still PM everything would be going swimmingly.
Jesus wept. ]
And she’s not a god-fearing Christian, gasp!
Also, I’d have been more suspicious about that News Limited dinner if the coverage for Gillard after it had suddenly improved.
[Also remember also that 20-30% are actually refugees from the South.]
Mainly Victorians. The first were attracted by Joh BP’s “christianity”, “antiMarxist” and “open slather for rich supporters, esp re property and mining development” policies (he banned Mao’s Little Red Schoolbook; always available at Brian Laver’s Red & Black Bookshop) so most yrs’ 10-12 kids bought & read it in protest). Some of these had children, at least one (though I believe more) very conservative one now representing a Q electorate.
The big rich second wave (many in the “White Shoe Brigade”) came with Joh’s abolition of death duties, and continued to for sun, warmth, “christianity” and “free for all” policies (qv above) after other states also abolished death duties. Minimal heating costs, cheap electricity & and cheaper cost of houses and living attracted poorer southerners. The last “Joh wave” featured fundamentalist US-style sects, inc evangelistic & pentacostal and the infamous Logos which migrated en masse from Goulburn, bought a stack of Range properties and disappeared (with considerable financial & “face” losses) after their leader was “taken in sin” most scandalously.
The Goss- early Beattie era drew (a) Sidneysiders who found they could sell their Sydney cottage, buy a Q mansion & then have some left over, (b) Victorians who were (or feared they would be) “jeffed”. Since Victorians jeffed Jeff himself, and Q cost of housing & living approached southern city levels, Victorian migration has diminished. Since FIFO hit mining areas, many mine workers (usually self-employed contractors on huge salaries) live in their original homes & “camp” at the mines. This, the GFC, and high SEQ house prices, have seen migration direction reversed.
IOW, Until Jeff, most interstate migration was Victorian, rich, “christian” and RW, producing (in the main) similar offspring. From then until recently, much was economic.
It’s interesting to watch the way these attacks at a personal level often go, isn’t it?
There is almost invariably a massive over reach by the attacker. What will come of the Thomson thing who knows, but this idiocy by Milne and Bolt makes it all look so contrived and stupid.
That Mike Smith non-entity was apparently on 2ue last week drumming something up about the PM. I didn’t hear is as I was in the UK, but I wonder if it was the same things that Milne was on about.
Crazy times really. Think I’d rather go back to watching Tranmere v Sheffield United.
I had an email this morning from an American friend, I told him about what is happening out here and he has been having a bit of a look at Australian politics and said Opposition is following Tea Party tactics to to T??? I said Murdoch has 70% of paper coverage out here, won’t print his reply
SK
The OZ did not fail. They succeeded. Print the story, then apologise. How convenient.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/aug/28/labour-law-stop-bskyb-bid
[Mid term they need to muscle up and have a good look at concentration of media ownership.]
Why wait? The current state of the media is far and away the NUMBER ONE threat to the integrity of democracy. The need to address it is urgent.
dovif,
The GST was introduced on July 1, 2000. Howard’s poll rating tanked and reached their nadir following the Ryan bi election in February 2001.
Howard went on to win the election later that year.
Gillard is introducinng the Carbon Price from July 1, 2012. The election is due in October 2013. This is approximately the same time period that Howard had to bed down his GST.
You are an historic illiterate as well as an economics dunderhead.