The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
Voice of Harold
It appears to have been pulled from The Oz website
thanks lizzie
TLM @85
Don’t get the sense that BOF is in any sort of decline in NSW , unfortuneately I think it will be our grandchildren that finally re elect a labor govt. in NSW.
NSW govt. at the time was hopeless and 2GB/DT/shock jocks had a field day.
Kristina (what a knockout) Kineally didn’t deserve the drubbing she got and inspite of the huge loss of ministers etc., her govt still delivered surplus budgets ,generally.
I heard this morning that , I will ‘fix everything at no extra cost’ BOF already making excuses , so maybe a little discontent coming up but not enough to spill over to Federal politics , IMO.
Good Morning Bludgers!
The Gold Coast sunshine is out, has ditched the winter chill in exchange for the warmth of a spring day, absolute heaven!
All those LNP supporters who want to believe that because of the current polls and the Thomson beat up they have the 2013 election won and dusted you might want to consider this.
By insisting on pushing the “We will rollback the Carbon Price” promise Abbott has wedged himself. By 2013 the CP will be in for a solid 12 months, electors will have become more relaxed with it all because the sky has not caved in and the Thomson affair will be seen for what it is, a beat up.
But come election time the new Parliamentary Budget Office will be in place and Toxic Tony’s promises of rolling back the CP and NBN and everything else, and still promising to keep the Hi octane Parenting scheme, the tax free threshhold reduction, and the compensation AND fill his $70B black hole will be identified as a crock.
The only way Abbott is going to be able to do all that is to rip the guts out of some major buckets of money in health, education, policing etc and sacking masses of public servants.
And let’s not forget their insistance on pushing IR serfchoices. All very attractive to the average voter.
Good luck with those election promises, Abbott.
The only chance the LNP has of winning is to divest itself of the Toxic one and revisit some of his policies of ‘NO’ to develop a more pragmatic set of policies that give them at least some hope of winning.
Link to the OO retraction.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/correction/story-fn6nj4ny-1226124242214
Reposted from the Morgan Thread:
[WA, QLD, NT, NSW vs TAS, VIC, SA, ACT??]
IOW: The states & territory which, up till now, have “owned” the revenue their natural resources returned, and in Q & NSW (so far, until there are demands to dam and pipe tropical waters south) their inland water resources – and which, because of their positions in the cyclone belt, are most affected by natural disasters and the massive cost of infrastructure repairs
V
The states & territory which, because they lack (or have only small quantities of) those mineral and water resources, want the Federal (ALP) government to force WA, QLD, NT, NSW to share their wealth equally with Vic, SA, Tas, ACT – while their citizens constantly whinge and/ or constantly snark about how unfair and/or politically stupid minerals- and inland water-rich states & NT are.
And you wonder why WA, QLD, NT, NSW are thoroughly pi6sed off?
Use your brains! A little less whinging and derision, and a lot more gratitude for sharing money and resources to which Vic, SA, Tas, ACT are not constitutionally entitled would be a smart start.
Remember, if Gillard’s government is rolled before the MRRT is firmly in place, all that lovely revenue – and probably a lot of the GAB, MAB & LEB water, given the pressure Q & NSW can exert on an LNP government under Abbott – will stay in WA, QLD, NT, NSW!
Wouldn’t that just (& justly) serve ACT, Vic, Tas, SA right!
Thank you My Say, Socrates and Victoria re Andrew Bolt and his startling revelation, is it what Glen Milne has posted and The Austrlian has had to retract? Socrates I loved your summary re what AB would say By the way why doesn’t the Australan sack Glen Milne???
[101 madcyril
Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 9:59 am | Permalink
Voice of Harold
It appears to have been pulled from The Oz website]
why would that be
About Fisher:
I agree with the point that if she is really ill (as in clinical depression) she wouldn’t be able to function adequately to do her job, and should stand aside.
However, I think Abbott may be over-icing the cake as a defence.
It is easily possible that a lack of concentration and inability to make decisions may have caused her to walk out without paying for groceries, but her subsequent behaviour is a bit strange – may well have risen from “I’m a senator and you can’t do this to me”.
madcyril – doncha just love the way they publish a correction with a few sentences ‘online’. Should be big letters on the front page of the paper tomorrow and online today.
will they also put it in the dead tree version tomorrow,
Thanks BB for linking Paul Barry. He confirmed for me that Andrew Bolt is dangerous to the political discourse in this country. No wonder I despise the man. I stopped watching the 7pm project because of him.
i didnt think milne worked for them now, or didnt he in the first place
I was disappointed that Barry couldn’t explain why almost all the megaphones are right-wing. Just look at who pays them and put them where they are, and in the cases of people like Bolt, Devine and Albrechtson, promoted beyond their abilities or talent.
Did anyone see what the content of Milne’s piece asserted? Sorry I was out doing chores.
Is the Milne article online? I couldn’t find it at first look.
SK
The PBO is a fantastic reform. The coalition will be unable to hide any black holes in future!
The msm have been feral and continue to be the cheersquad for the coalition. Labor are struggling on this front.
[Of all people, Clive Palmer blasts the coal seam gas industry as “poisonous”:]
Because he owns Q coal resources which, because of international CP & ETS, will lose markets to cleaner, greener CSG – which, from memory, he does not control (or not to the same extent). Qld CGS will be pipelined to Gladstone/ Port Alma & shipped to the same countries as he markets his coal.
So he’d be about the first LNP heavyweight I’d expect to damn CGS!
V of H
I think it was more that Barry couldn’t explain why there were no lefty shockjocks (or at least, none with the same influence). But he nailed the RW pretty well, wtte ‘They get up in the morning and decide what they think, and then look for ‘evidence’ to confirm their opinion’.
I agree with Victoria (94) about the Oz doing Glen MIlne piece in the printed version and retracting in online, where were the sub editors allowing it to be published?
SK
I did not see Milne’s article, but from what I gather, it follows on from what Bolt has been alluding to all weekend.
[arunta
Posted]
for years we had a liberals here but the people elected labor fed, members
it was like a bit of security blanket i think
so dont think becauce the state may stay liber,. the people will do the same federlly
up till recent times its been very strange for us to have both labor and and labor in the fed and state,
and the libs in the bethune years and now i forget there names where there for some years
[arunta
Posted]
for years we had a liberals here but the people elected labor fed, members
it was like a bit of security blanket i think
so dont think becauce the state may stay liber,. the people will do the same federlly
up till recent times its been very strange for us to have both labor and and labor in the fed and state,
and the libs in the bethune years and now i forget there names where there for some years
I agree lizzie, he got that right. The Power Index results provide a pretty solid explanation for why ALP are doing so well in practice, but struggling in the polls. But we all knew that anyway…
gosh cyril you where quick off the mark to find that.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Finally, The #lolstralian admits it writes undsubstantiated shit: bit.ly/nv6yja #mediafail #murdochracy #auspol #abbottlies
]
[Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Might as well be for the whole paper some days theaustralian.com.au/correction/sto…
]
[geeksrulz Geekster
Quality Journalism for ‘The Arse of the Nation – The Australian’ is.gd/EzPazM Why do they insist on writing crap? #auspol
]
I’d say Milne would be hitting the turps pretty hard after this morning’s fiasco. Did anyone read his article?
SK
The OZ should print its apology on the front page of the paper tomorrow. Will they do that? I dont for one minute believe this was unintentional. It is all part of the smearing, and that is what Bolt and Milne did for their master
[The Oz publish a correction for a story by Glen Milne this morning that contained more information on the crap being pushed by Bolt about the PM]
So I guess they were just writing crap after all?
Such a pity: I would have loved a chance to read that article, now sadly expunged, I presume.
have any of you checked the bolt report today tosee whats being said today
So glad the apology was demanded quickly. I bet there was a lot of anger in the PM’s office this morning.
And well tweeted SK.
So does the Milne correction relate to the substance of threats that Bolt was making all weekend? I’m a bit confused here as I don’t know what the original piece was about.
well conf has found it again.
[geeksrulz Geekster
So we had a lie over FairWork Australia, misquoting RBA’s Glen Stephens and now a dirt piece on PM – Unhinged NewsLtd needs inquiry #auspol
]
@ SK
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/conman-broke-my-heart/story-e6frf7l6-1111114848747
It was a rehash of this story from 1995 that Bolt was trying to claim would finish of the PM and Milne wrote about it today.
The Fibs are dishing up the dirt so it’s about time Labor went down the same path IMHO. Forget the were better than them attitude it’s all our war now with the gloves off and if Labor don’t step into the ring it will keep getting worse.
[aus_politics Australian Politics
Correction: THE AUSTRALIAN published today an opinion piece by Glenn Milne which includes assertions about the c… bit.ly/nPPFHe
9 minutes ago
in reply to ?
Space Kidette
@SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@aus_politics So will that be a full front page apology, heh? Alongside your admission that RBA statements about IR are also BS? #auspol
]
Shouldn’t Bolt also issue an apology for his smears?
Those bloody pigs are flying again.
You can still read a large portion of Milne’s article on Bolt’s blog
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/whats_williamson_so_scared_of/
So all that panic in the PM’s office, the information which – whilst not implicating her in any wrong doing whatsoever, you understand – was going to force her out, etc etc …and it all amounts to nothing.
didnt one tweeter say that yesterday there would be a lot people up set in the pms office.
will it be on the hard copy tomorrow
SK
i wonder do you know how many tweets when re tweeted ect
what are the numers of viewers
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
The Australian: Overreach; The LNP: Overreach. And people don’t believe certain elements of the media are pushing for regime change? #auspol
]
Is that all there is? Is that all Bolt had? sheesh
Was Bolt the one who asserted that Gillard would be gone by the end of August? Maybe this was his attempt to make it happen.
my say,
I can only measure my own retweets, but i only get to see the retweets of my followers, not those who follow my followers, if that makes sense.
OPT @ 106
Are you serious with that post?
yes it does makes lots of sence, you are doing a wonderful job for democracy
of the country,
just think if there was no computer and no tweeting , we would beleive all we saw or thought we saw
my say,
That is just too scary to contemplate.
Space Kidette
As I said before many times, you can make a comparison with Carbon tax and the GST. Howard had his worst poll, 9 month after the beginning of the GST, and the transition to the GST was smooth.
The problem with the ALP is that, there will be more paperwork, there will be an increase of the grocery bill (dispite some people getting money back, unlike the GST where everyone got more money)
So if you are expecting the polls to turn around on 1/7/2012, think of what happened with the GST.
There is always going to be implementation problem, and there will always be people, with bad/hard luck stories, which the press will run, it happens with the GST and it will happens with the Carbon tax
Also, when the public hear of the Carbon tax, it is BAD for the ALP, because the public is reminded of Julia’s “Lie” and the Greens having control of the ALP.
This is going to be the same as border protection, where if it is in the news, it is bad for the ALP. If it is off the news and not actively hurting the ALP, it would be considered a “win”
So recently during the recess, the ALP’s polling improved because there were little mention of the carbon tax. Now that it is mentioned again, the ALP 2PP has tanked again.
The problem is that at the next election, people will be paying the Carbon tax, on top of mortgage rate (unlike GST), and cost of living pressure (unlike GST). And if they are struggling with their budget, they will be blaming the CT.
Howard’s worst poll came 9 months after the introduction of the GST, I expect the same will happen with Gillard