The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining the results of the last two weekends’ polling, adds to a picture of Labor’s slight gains over the previous month or two being reversed. The Coalition has picked up two points on the primary vote directly at Labor’s expense, with the Coalition on 49.5 per cent and Labor on 32.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 12 per cent. On respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5; on the previous election measure it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.
I’ve had quite a lot to say about the persistent gap between Morgan’s two two-party preferred measure, which is a fairly recent phenomenon. The chart below shows how Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has tracked in the three poll series that publish results for both measures, namely Morgan’s frequent face-to-face polls, their less frequent phone polls, and the monthly Nielsen results. All three began the year more or less in the territory of the 2010 election result, which delivered Labor 65.8 per cent of all non-major party preferences.
Up to a month ago, all three seemed to agree that this had declined by about 10 per cent. Since then, we’ve seen individual Nielsen and Morgan phone poll results (which may prove to be aberrations) showing a revesal of that trend, while Morgan face-to-face has the Labor share lower than ever. Morgan face-to-face has also been consistent in giving Labor the lowest share of the three series throughout this year. I should note as always that the previous election measure has a better track record for predicting the election result in any case.
In other poll news, a fortnightly Port Macquarie-based publication called The Port Paper has published results from an automated phone poll conducted by ReachTEL in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne showing support for Rob Oakeshott at just 14.8 per cent, against 55.3 per cent for the Coalition and 17 per cent for Labor. This has raised eyebrows on a number of counts. Firstly, the question on voting intention was the last of three put to respondents, after attitudinal questions on carbon tax and pokies reforms (both of which were strongly opposed), which is commonly recognised in the polling caper as the wrong way to get an accurate response. Secondly, the principals behind The Port Paper are very strongly associated with the Nationals. And thirdly, Bernard Keane in Crikey today relates that ReachTEL “proudly announced it was an associate member of Clubs Qld, which has this year been campaigning aggressively against the Andrew Wilkie-led poker machine reform push. The Port Paper story fails to disclose that.”
The Port Paper also published a poll from the corresponding state electorate of Port Macquarie before the election in March, and while it was not brilliantly accurate, its errors were not in a direction that would inspire doubts about its motives. The vote for soon-to-be-defeated independent incumbent Peter Besseling was about right (34 per cent, compared with 36.5 per cent at the election), but the Nationals were too low (40 per cent against 52.2 per cent) and Labor too high (14 per cent against 5.7 per cent).
I was referring to the principle and not the person dave. I have already made my position on the person and specific situation clear a number of times. That’s the problem around here much of the time in that it’s hard to talk about issues in a general sense without being misunderstood.
[On this basis, “Billy” has just been despatched to the sin bin. I am in no doubt whatsoever that the volume of such incidents of late is a result of Labor supporters having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls.]
william, one cannot have a debate with liberal people
David Wh and blacspur yes
can you tell me why some liberals only come here when the polls are coming in and when scandals like this one for want of a better word happen.
there gr avatars are enough to turn anyone off , also.
you said one was a troll but you dont do anything about it.
i am sorry but you seem to be less tolerant of people, and yes polls are bad now
when the polls turn and they will i will bet you you dont see them here then.
if you want to run the blog with just liberals thats up to you.
havent read what billie had to say, and dont care. but we get fed up with remarks the other way around good for goose and the gander i would say
when i see the gentleman with the tipped hat i leave well that s up to me of course but why anyone stays to debate nothing i dont know.
Reading my say’s link to New Matilda, I find this:
[It has been Thomson’s misfortune to attract the interest of Liberal Senator George Brandis, a former barrister and one of the sharpest legal minds in federal politics. ]
Well if he’s one of the sharpest minds…
[We’ll agree to disagree on this.]
George we really need to find things to agree on now and again 🙂
[having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls]
and if i was me and you where you
i bin you for the above nuff said
ladie present. that type of language is not allowed in my lounge at home
btw George…
I iz withdrawing the ‘glee’ comment from earlier re:Norway.
Not that you may care either way.
But based on one post you made it did it did in no way warrant the comment I made about you.
gs@147
You forgot to add , I don’t know ,how many millions of dollars of negative advertising by , mining billionaires, tobacco companies and Clubs which have contiuous feed negative adds in all their clubs , and reporting of same by the ‘fair and balanced media’.
I find it hard to accept your ‘it doesn’t amout to a mess of beans in this crazy world ‘view.
But then again it does support your argument.
Sorry cuppa , I said I wouldn’t but I can’t help it.
[Well if he’s one of the sharpest minds…]
lizzie, as Foghorn Leghorn would say, “that boy is about as sharp as a bowling ball..”
[lizzie
Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
Reading my say’s link to New Matilda, I find this:
It has been Thomson’s misfortune to attract the interest of Liberal Senator George Brandis, a former barrister and one of the sharpest legal minds in federal politics.]
keep in mind the young author now whisper so will. doesnt know is a liberal also.
wish i had not of posed it now but it another perspective i suppose.
perhaps we can find that link or was the one in smh
[In this alternate universe, the Liberals are in disarray, they are desperate, and they are struggling, being beaten to a pulp, by the charismatic Gillard. The public does not trust Abbott and they fear him
Opinion poll Liberals 58.5 ALP 41.5 on 30% primary
Alternate universe]
Dovif:too true!
Poll Bludger has become as partisan in one direction, as News Ltd is partisan in the opposite direction.
There’s a constant theme running through many posts here: the tendency to blame anyone else except the current Labor leadership for the bad polls – the media is biased, or we’ll retrospectively attack Kevin Rudd, or things will turn around in 2 years(as Gary constantly reminds us).
When there are Labor supporters in here who actually are seemingly so complacent about the polling situation, and think “She’ll be right mate, Julia will come good!”, I just scratch my head.
[I have shit in my liver, they have shit all over their faces.]
A poetic return salvo, Rua (glad you came back btw)
I keep thinking, “Is today the day everyone will wake up and smell the roses?” And every day the rubbish just continues. The front page of the tabloids (and they are now definitely tabloids) says it all about the fairness of our media slant.
[ DavidWH
Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
I was referring to the principle and not the person dave. I have already made my position on the person and specific situation clear a number of times. ]
I just don’t believe you. You are only going about this way to keep the accusations coming without having to provide *proof* or adhere to normal process.
Shame on you.
How may legal minds are there in Federal politics? 10 at most
Damning with faint praise?
Just worth pointing out that its fine for people in the media to criticise the Government. What’s more frustrating is when they do it on spurious or fabricated grounds.
I support William.
To insult any poster by saying wtte you are … because you are a Lib, is childish.
DavidWH, and some others, are at least polite and will argue a case. It’s the rude ones I don’t like, on both sides.
If that’s how you want to see things then fair enough.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/thomson-unlikely-to-be-charged-experts-say-20110825-1jcja.html#ixzz1W5bY4g2B
lizzie this is i think where the gentleman explains that things willl may be not progress
William – I disagree with you.
My posts for days have been in line with what Ru details in #148 above.
David and blackspur are never rude.
and are easy to converse with it the one liners from some i dislike
sarcasim
Crabby is actually pretty funny for a change
[Same goes for the rest of the stuff that’s happened over the last fortnight in this paralysed parliament, which somehow has managed, possibly by way of one of those straw things that Christopher Reeve had, to pass 22 pieces of legislation.]
[The last week has demonstrated that it can pretty much do anything in the parliament without getting on the telly, so long as it doesn’t involve Craig Thomson. To an on-the-ball government, this could provide a perfect opportunity to legalise gay marriage, send 800 asylum seekers to Disneyland and outlaw the Daily Telegraph as a terrorist organisation.
There’s no opportunity like a crisis, after all.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-26/crabb-the-thomson-distraction/2857310
rishane
Yes, that’s what riles me. I just want fairness and truth. Silly me 😛
william its good to have a bit of good debate i am not good at it but i enjoy reading it.
the blog would be nothing with out these bits and pieces
its not uni lecture hall you know somtimes it reminds me of the uni bar though
lol
[or things will turn around in 2 years(as Gary constantly reminds us).]
If you read carefully I said may turn around. I’m not ruling it out. You have.
[ We’ll agree to disagree on this.
George we really need to find things to agree on now and again 🙂 ]
Gen, tell me where else the average punter gets his ‘political’ information, if not the media. I am not talking us nerds who actually watch parlt. and read the reports. The ‘AVERAGE’ voter.
The ONLY place they get info is via the press. And our press have been doing a severe hatchet job on Labor since Rudd’s mea culpa over the batts. Since that time EVERY news report about labor (with very few exceptions) has literally trashed, misrepresented, or channelled Abbott verbatim.
And you DON’T think the media has MUCH of an effect? Naive, me thinks!
[When there are Labor supporters in here who actually are seemingly so complacent about the polling situation, and think “She’ll be right mate, Julia will come good!”, I just scratch my head.]
I’m not quite sure what you are after. Can you explain please?
BTw Bludgers…
Am enjoying watching The West Wing…I know they’re democrats but I iz liking the show it makes for good viewing.
If you havent seen it I suggest you do its a good TV show and you’d like it IMHO.
Also because the Repugs are sleaze bags and the show is about a Democrat in the White House.
Why is it with Channel 10, when Paul B reports it is usually very fair reporting but when one of the announcers it is usually anti ALP, still on about Julia Gillard’s office being dragged into the mire re advisor ringing about CT and Yes a lovely picture of TA at a sewing machine somewhere talking JG being stiched up. Obviuosly the headline on the news site hasn’t rwached them yet??? And of course the shovel being left
[poetic return salvo, Rua (glad you came back btw)
I keep thinking, “Is today the day everyone will wake up and smell the roses?” And every day the rubbish just continues. The front page of the tabloids (and they are now definitely tabloids) says it all about the fairness of our media slant
]
me to jen every day i think that, will commonsense return to aus.
the people who are doing this will pay a lot in the long run, either becauce abbott takes over and they lose all the things labor have put in
or that people wake up stop listening to them, i hope its this one
ii think we see it all here but they only see bits of it shame isnt it.
i nearly does one head in sometimes trying to understand why any one would vote for that lot
even people like glen that says he is a teacher, i would of thought would see though the liberals
jenauthor, I love watching people who “read” the Herald Sun when I (often) find myself in cafes. Page turning every few seconds, reading the headlines and quickly “scanning” through thousands of words.
Be wary of legal academics – an opinion from a former prosecutor within any state, territory or commonwealth DPP would be more meaningful as they have the job day in day out or reviewing evidence gathered by police before serious charges are laid and recommending to charge or not to charge
I trace Labor’s decline back to June 2010 – we all know what transpired then.
[being dragged into the mire re advisor ringing about CT and Yes a lovely picture of TA at a sewing machine somewhere talking JG being stiched up. Obviuosly the headline on the news site hasn’t rwached them yet??? And of course the shovel being left]
did he use that word if he did doesnt he understand the true meaning of the word
stitched up and its actually sewn up mr abbott you ingnorarmous
[The ONLY place they get info is via the press. And our press have been doing a severe hatchet job on Labor since Rudd’s mea culpa over the batts. Since that time EVERY news report about labor (with very few exceptions) has literally trashed, misrepresented, or channelled Abbott verbatim.
And you DON’T think the media has MUCH of an effect? Naive, me thinks!]
Jen…
Whether the media has the effect it is said to have is another issue entirely.
Whether the news on TV is biased or newspapers is biased cannot be proven either way as Bilbo mentions.
The question is whether I was squealing like a stuck pig in 2006/7 about the media (being biased against Howard) as you and others are now in 2011 (against Gillard)…I think we’re even on that count.
jA @175
Agree none of my friends and I mean ‘none of them ‘get their news from any source other than MSM , and I hate to say it , shock jock radio, needless to say they repeat and believe what they hear, that is why I find it hard to agree with sparrow and others that downplay the role of the media in all of this.
george
Yes, someone I knew much preferred the Sun, because it was “quick to read”. Says a lot about the depth of thinking required – but also allows the headlines to dominate their thinking, and it’s the headlines, as opposed to the facts/details further down the article, that the bludgers rightly complain about.
The lead in Gillard’s sandbags:
1. The perception that she came to the top job by knifing her predecessor
2. Going back on her word that there wouldn’t be a carbon tax
3. The two speed economy
4. Craig Thomson
I really doubt she can overcome all of that by the time of the next election.
[I trace Labor’s decline back to June 2010 – we all know what transpired then.]
A tyrant was removed?
Mr Brandis is the sharpest legal brain in the Coalition not in the Parliament.
Even Mr Shanahan thinks he is a dumbcluck.
Maybe they could make Mr Jocyce Shadow AG?
shellbell – High Court ??
[even people like glen that says he is a teacher, i would of thought would see though the liberals]
I am not a teacher my say.
My career has changed.
Btw I have been routinely critical of Abbott and the failures of the Libs over the months just so you know.
[I trace Labor’s decline back to June 2010 – we all know what transpired then.]
It went back further than that.
Interesting to me how some talk in a condescending way about the Labortariat on this site. Without the “Labortariat” I wonder if this site would pay its way.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
I trace Labor’s decline back to June 2010 – we all know what transpired then.]
so evans back on the kevin thing again william and U wonder why people get crabby
well i leave you to the trolls
night all
TLM
By the time the next election comes around Aussies will wake up to two basic real things:
(1) Mr Abbott has lied to them hundreds of times.
(2) Ms Gillard is one of the great reforming prime ministers of Australia.
They will put (1) and (2) together and gratefully return a Labor Government which can rule in its own right.
back from doctor. At this stage, they are ruling out appendicitis. Daughter is feeling better.
RNM
exactly becareful what you wish for as they say.
about 5 people at the mostl
i have been wondering for some time why they dont get to ge together and build a site for them selves. somewhere
thats interesting glen to what
Boerwar
I am prepared for Labor to lose in 203, but not anytime soon. They need to get the policies in place and bedded down, and that is what that creep and his cronies are trying to stop.
What the corporate run media are now doing in this country is simple they are pushing for the end of the Gillard Government because they want what their rich corporate advertisers want greater flexibility in the labour markets and the trashing of overtime and penalty payments. This which the idoits in the media and our boardrooms do not understand would create greater harm to the economy than good. It would slowly see more jobs go because their would less demand in the economy. The dills in the media and the economic rationalists who now run the world have no idea and should start looking at Keynesian economics and ask why for so long after the second world war did world economies prosper. Economic rationalism has had a negative affect and is forcing world economies to the wall because the wealthy have to much money and their are very few of them meaning that their discretionary spending overall throughout our economy is much reduced. Just watch if Abbott wins the next election the assault upon working people will be significant.
Meantime unions are now doing what they do best fight with each other and continue to be self interested in themselves. Where is the ACTU you ask and where have they been for the last few years?
Also where are the people who put Gillard into power last year? Where is Shorten, and his mates hardly sighted in helping Julia this week?