Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining the results of the last two weekends’ polling, adds to a picture of Labor’s slight gains over the previous month or two being reversed. The Coalition has picked up two points on the primary vote directly at Labor’s expense, with the Coalition on 49.5 per cent and Labor on 32.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 12 per cent. On respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5; on the previous election measure it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

I’ve had quite a lot to say about the persistent gap between Morgan’s two two-party preferred measure, which is a fairly recent phenomenon. The chart below shows how Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has tracked in the three poll series that publish results for both measures, namely Morgan’s frequent face-to-face polls, their less frequent phone polls, and the monthly Nielsen results. All three began the year more or less in the territory of the 2010 election result, which delivered Labor 65.8 per cent of all non-major party preferences.

Up to a month ago, all three seemed to agree that this had declined by about 10 per cent. Since then, we’ve seen individual Nielsen and Morgan phone poll results (which may prove to be aberrations) showing a revesal of that trend, while Morgan face-to-face has the Labor share lower than ever. Morgan face-to-face has also been consistent in giving Labor the lowest share of the three series throughout this year. I should note as always that the previous election measure has a better track record for predicting the election result in any case.

In other poll news, a fortnightly Port Macquarie-based publication called The Port Paper has published results from an automated phone poll conducted by ReachTEL in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne showing support for Rob Oakeshott at just 14.8 per cent, against 55.3 per cent for the Coalition and 17 per cent for Labor. This has raised eyebrows on a number of counts. Firstly, the question on voting intention was the last of three put to respondents, after attitudinal questions on carbon tax and pokies reforms (both of which were strongly opposed), which is commonly recognised in the polling caper as the wrong way to get an accurate response. Secondly, the principals behind The Port Paper are very strongly associated with the Nationals. And thirdly, Bernard Keane in Crikey today relates that ReachTEL “proudly announced it was an associate member of Clubs Qld, which has this year been campaigning aggressively against the Andrew Wilkie-led poker machine reform push. The Port Paper story fails to disclose that.”

The Port Paper also published a poll from the corresponding state electorate of Port Macquarie before the election in March, and while it was not brilliantly accurate, its errors were not in a direction that would inspire doubts about its motives. The vote for soon-to-be-defeated independent incumbent Peter Besseling was about right (34 per cent, compared with 36.5 per cent at the election), but the Nationals were too low (40 per cent against 52.2 per cent) and Labor too high (14 per cent against 5.7 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,840 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Whatever the statistical patchwork of the polls, the all, more or less, are about 57 ish to 43 ish. That’s a 7% ish swing since the last election.

  2. [Whatever the statistical patchwork of the polls, the all, more or less, are about 57 ish to 43 ish. That’s a 7% ish swing since the last election.]

    Yep. But will it last? That’s the question.

  3. you mentioned a few weeks ago that morgan comes to its figures in a different way than they use to do, are they still doing that,

    have you allowed for that and if so what would be the fig if they did it the same as ess. for example

  4. i would hope after this disgusting week with abbott and his mob, people may start to wake up

    but did anything appear in the msm about what julia bought about the liberals in question time yesterday

    i havent seen any one mention that.,

    so if not why not,

  5. Can’t wait for intrepid reporter Suzy Quatro to give us the details of Shovel gate drive from an alleged hovering helicopter

  6. my say I think the point was it was basically 50/50 at the election and now is 57/43 which equates to a 7% swing in 2PP terms.

  7. Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    I look forward to the Liberal Party taking a principled stand on anything at all.

    We should support whoever it is in the Liberal Party that sets the principles ball rolling if it ever does.

    At the moment no-one in the Liberal parliamentary part appears to have any ethical backbone at all. Mr Abbott and his toxic opportunist approach has turned even decent men and women in moral jellyfish.

    + 1

  8. WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU PEOPLE DOING? YOU SHOULD ALL BE OUT BUYING THE NEW RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS ALBUM TITLED “I’M WITH YOU”!

  9. [my say I think the point was it was basically 50/50 at the election and now is 57/43 which equates to a 7% swing in 2PP terms.]

    except the tiny point that you’re comparing an actual election result with a poll taken with no election in sight. So there’s no “swing” of any kind happening at the moment

  10. my say

    [7 percent is not muich realy is it?]
    Indeed, changing the vote of 7 people in a crowd of 100 does look like mission impossible. I think people are a bit more movable these days as to which way to go.

  11. thanks david i want ask how its done, i will just believe it

    i am the arty type maths i use to feel sick from prep.

    but now i can draft patterns and design clothes, and as my oh says thats maths.

    so dont know the answer

  12. george I have said on a number of occasions I believe the numbers will tighten when we get closer to the election however I would rather be 57/43 than 43/57 even this far out. But yes they are just polls and only one really counts.

  13. [Indeed, changing the vote of 7 people in a crowd of 100 does look like mission impossible]

    gosh i thought that would be not hard at all, thanks paroti thanks george

    i think what we are seeing is abbotts fear re money in pocket, before Julia announced the carbon pollution it was nearly level i accidently clicked on to a febuary poll on pollbludger last week and i noticed that.

    gosh i think if i had 100 people in a room i could change 7 in to aggreeing with me

    so youhave 100 people in a room you do a talk and 7 change.

    in my job i had to convince people about my product i think i could of convinced very quickly life time guarantee ect. thats my product of course not me. but now i am retired.

  14. Chris Smith this afternoon spent all his time stitching up Thomson.

    Smith had Thommo for everything: using prostitutes, fraud, theft, being a Kiwi, lazy, deceptive. It went on and on.

    He got the law professor from Charles Sturt on to really put the boot in.

    Funnily enough, said lawyer thought that Thommo wasn’t guilty of anything. Maybe a breach of contract, but certainly not anything criminal, not even a misdemeanour.

    Smith had built him up as the final arbiter on the subject of Thomson’s guilt, and maybe in pre-on-air discussions this bloke revved himself up to the program’s producers. But when he got on he was a pussy cat. Uhm-ing and aah-ing like a true professional obfuscator. Most disappointing to Smith who cut him off quicker than he cuts off some of his callers.

    Didn’t stop Smith from going on and on about Thommo, though. Within a couple of minutes of the professor’s sobering opinion on the subject – which included an observation that the media coverage, such as Smith’s endless cycle of Thommo-bashing would certainly be brought up by any future brief for Thommo as prejudicing a fair trial – Smith has the MP locked up in Long Bay and the key thrown away.

    Seems to me the very worst thing Thomson may have done is rort his credit card, which is a civil matter, not a criminal one. As Drake pointed out above, the card was in good order, Thomson doesn’t seem to have represented himself as anyone other than who he is, he was authorized – by the credit card company – to sign it and incur expenses. He didn’t exceed his limit. Credit cards are rorted every day of the week, literally thousands of times.

    Yet Smith banged on and on and on about alleged criminality.

    Abbott is now trying to bring Gillard into it because – before she was PM apparently – one of her staffers made enquiries of the Fair Work commission (or whatever it was called before that) and was rightly told to bugger off and mind his own business.

    Smith also wondered why the ATO hadn’t gotten itself involved. He clearly implied political interference in the workings of the ATO, Fair Work and just about anyone else who’s been within coo’ee of Thomson’s matter.

    In ChrisWorld (TM) everyone is guilty of something. All public servants are corrupt. All offices, bureaux and departments are in the thrall of their political puppet-masters, working to stop Tony Abbott from taking over as Prime Minister forthwith.

    He also had the CATA (Consumers and Taxpayers’ Association) idiot on. Apparently they are planning to stage a demo outside Albanese’s office tomorrow week (from memory). “Hundreds” of people, from as far as Ballarat in Victoria are heading to Newtown to storm Albo’s office. If he “has any guts”, say Smith and CATA, he’ll grovel and apologize for calling the Convoy one of “No Consequence”. I would hazard a guess that any takeaway restaurant asked to provide bacon and egg sangers along the route, for the “hundreds and thousands” who will be attending this “quiet and peaceful demonstration” (yeah, right), will be loathe to be fooled a second time.

    In ChrisWorld, “thousands” attend every rally. Everyone who disagrees with him is a hypocrite and a liar, probably corrupt too, if public servants. Tony Abbott is forthright, honest and level headed. He never changes his mind or misleads anyone. A man of his word is Tony.

    It’s hate, hate, hate, from the moment the newsreader and the Harvey Norman commercials finish at about 5 minutes past the hour until the end of the show. How anyone can take this tit-tweaking buffoon, Smith, a self-confessed serial standover merchant of young women with an alcohol problem, seriously is beyond me.

    As to the above allegation, consider exhibit “A”:

    [DISGRACED 2GB RADIO presenter Chris Smith is facing a mountain of opposition over his return to work with a number of women at the station said to be planning a walk-out should the self-confessed “groper” be reinstated.

    Smith, exposed at the weekend as the mystery “groper” who drunkenly went on the prowl harassing four women at the 2GB Christmas party is hoping management will welcome him back in the new year but senior bosses are said to be scrutinising his newly signed four-year contract in hope of showing Smith the door.

    Despite a frank interview in The Sunday Telegraph in which he said he suffered from depression and had a problem with alcohol abuse, everyone from program director Ian Holland down is being looked at for failing in their duty of care to female staffers at the station who were harassed by the self-confessed “runaway train”.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/confidential/gb-female-staff-worried-about-groper-chris-smiths-return/story-e6frf96o-1225810359743

    This is the calibre of the man who is now condemning others for moral laxity of a sexual nature.

    Sexual groping and alcoholism are not Smith’s only failings: he’s a self-confessed forger, too… something which he blithely accuses Craig Thomson also of being.

    Consider Exhibit “B”:

    [“If you carry on like a lunatic, full of grog, and have disrespect for women, you should be fired,” he said. “I have been, 12 years ago. I’ve been guilty of, not this, but I have been stood aside, and I’m just telling you that that should have happened, it did happen, and in Matthew Johns’ case, it’s the right decision.”

    The incident in Smith’s history related to an ugly and very public episode that occurred while he too was employed by Channel 9.

    While working on A Current Affair in 1994, Smith was found to have forged the signature of Nine’s corporate lawyer Jane Marquard to have a prisoner released from Mulawa Detention Centre for an interview.

    Smith was later charged by police and admitted forging the signature.]

    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/gbs-chris-smith-reflects-on-his-bad-behaviour/story-e6frfmqr-1225712352657#ixzz1W6jNW500

    Smith actually sprang a prisoner from lawful detention by forging a signature, and now has the temerity to accuse others, in the most sanctiminonious manner possible, of far lesser crimes.

    Smith would no doubt say that he paid for his crimes and misdemeanours. This may be true, which makes his plenary moralizing about Thomson, the public service, the government and the Prime Minister all the more gut-wrenchingly sickening.

    I keep thinking – hoping’s a better word – that the general public – the relatively sensible ones – will snap out of it some day and realise just how far they have been misled and conned by these 2GB types and their reactionary mates. These are people from the innocent burger flippers of the Convoy Trail to the truly gullible who genuinely believe a Double Dissolution election – one for which there are no constitutional triggers – is just around the corner.

    Abbott chews them up and spits them out. The Smiths, the Parrots and the Hadleys whip them up injto a frenzy of excitement and anger, ready to throw away everything they have given by the current government – their jobs, their pensions, their civil society where unemployment and economic performance are the envy of the world, and one where interest rates are lower than they have been for seven years – for five minutes of grim satisfaction on some distant election night.

    The hatred, the raw viciousness, the petty minded negativism, the constant whingeing and moaning surely can’t keep up for another two years. Eventually the punters will have to get sick of it.

    Won’t they?

  15. [OFFICIAL records undermine suggestions a senior adviser to Julia Gillard tried to pressure the official in charge of the investigation of problem Labor MP Craig Thomson.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/records-undermine-claim-julia-gillards-adviser-pressured-official-in-craig-thomson-probe/story-e6frfkvr-1226122859259#ixzz1W6mHuerb%5D

    sorry to put this here again i just wanted to point out sick to death i am of joe hockey. and she must ect.

    did you all read the post about hockey and pyne jerring at the pm as she walked passed them or behind them or something.

    these are not gentleman , what are they would any of you gentleman like to give them a name

  16. [Chris Smith this afternoon spent all his time stitching up Thomson.

    Smith had Thommo for everything: using prostitutes, fraud, theft, being a Kiwi, lazy, deceptive. It went on and on.

    He got the law professor from Charles Sturt on to really put the boot in.]

    surley all this sort of think even if mr thompson had done something,

    asking shellbell here , would it make it impossible now as this is so tallked about out there in their media land.

    i thought when things can go before the court, we or no one was to discuss this.

    i thought that was the law if so why are they able to do so

  17. [thought when things can go before the court, we or no one was to discuss this]
    may got to court, or speaking in general terms which i realy was.

  18. It is not changing any old 7 people. It is changing 7 Coalition voters to swing back to Labor – that is 7 out of 57 which is about 12% of those poor souls.

  19. [Oh Dear…

    Republicans looking like giving the nomination to Perry…

    What is it about Texans and being President all the time???]
    At least Perry is a real Texan. GWB was born in Connecticut, and was part of the establishment (how could a son of a president not be part of the establishment!). He just had a ranch and pretended to be a Texan so he could say he was an “outsider”.

    But that was just the role he played.

  20. It is not changing any old 7 people. It is changing 7 Coalition voters to swing back to Labor – that is 7 out of 57 which is about 12% of those poor souls.

    And thats just to get back to 50-50. Add another % point or 2 to get a comfortable majority.

  21. [The Liberal party are resorting to blatant lies. This is getting quite desperate and disgusting]

    This wuill not stop the media on tonight’s news from regurgitating every scintilla of Abbott’s accusations as though they were true, and then offering he-said/she-said equal time to Gillard to put “her side of the matter”.

    A rolled-gold denial by the Authority in question will be reduced to a matter of opinion.

    The public will be asked to make up their own minds without any messy “guidance” Sydney Morning Herald-style from the covering journalists.

    It will all add to the atmosphere, the perception of “chaos” surrounding the Thomson matter.

  22. BB as people work all day and dont have a chance to read this, why dont you email your exact words to Senator Conroys office.

    you can always say you dont need a reply then its see quickly.

  23. [ is not changing any old 7 people. It is changing 7 Coalition voters to swing back to Labor – that is 7 out of 57 which is about 12% of those poor souls.]

    i would say a lot of these are mixed up swing voters or even mixed up dont understand labor voters.

    the compensation and the peace of mind when things settle will help

    julia had got and she has mind you we could lose medi care and pbs

    if we can get this out there and keep saying it, she explained this last week re the 70 billion.

    what person out there really want to lose the PBS

  24. j[ulia had got and she has mind you we could lose medi care and pbs]
    gosh what a mixed up sentance

    Julia has got to keep reminding people we could lose medi care and pbs.

  25. [ It is changing 7 Coalition voters to swing back to ]

    or swing voters or worried voter becauce abbott sends fear around,.

    the fear they should have is abbott

  26. I would be completely surprised if under the following circumstances some form of criminal activity hadn’t taken place under existing law – that an officer of an organisation secretely issues themselves a corporate credit card, uses that card for personal use for an amount of $100k and then authorises those uses on behalf of the organisation. If that type of behaviour is only a civil matter then we have a gaping hole in our criminal law.

    Please note I am not saying all that happened however that is what is alleged to have happened.

  27. The only thing we can be absolutely sure about in relation to Mr Thomson is that Mr Brandis has made a goose of himself.

    The rest has the status of gutter crawling by the Liberal Party and brothel crawling by ‘The Australian’.

  28. I wonder when anyone in the Coalition party rooms checked:

    (1) global glacier ice mass balance trends?
    (2) Arctic sea ice trends?
    (3) Arctic atmospheric methane concentration trends?
    (4) ocean acidity trends?
    (5) global temperature trends?
    (6) atmospheric CO2 concentration trends?

    I suppose that if you think that CO2 is weightless all of the above are irrelevant.

  29. my say

    Courts in NSW are not sympathetic to claims by accuseds that they will not get fair trial because of pre-trial publicity. They regard jurors as being made of stern stuff who take their oath/affirmation as jurors solemny and seriously.

    If, however, someone of high profile and with an audience was to assert person A, who was charged, should be convicted or acquitted for certain reasons, that is classic attempting to pervert the course of justice. It is what Neville Wran did prior to the retrial of Lionel Murphy and he was convicted and fined.

    I think Derryn Hinch might have done something similar in Victoria.

    What Chris Smith is doing is cowardly and of course defamatory but probably not criminal in advance of any charges being laid.

  30. DavidWH

    [that an officer of an organisation secretely issues themselves a corporate credit card,]

    um, no. It wasn’t a secret card, he didn’t issue it to himself.

    [uses that card for personal use for an amount of $100k]

    firstly, we don’t know that’s what happened – he’s saying it didn’t.

    secondly, running up personal expenses on company credit cards is perfectly OK with some organisations, as long as the money is reimbursed.

    Certainly I know of one council where the mayor had an arrangement with council that he could use the mayoral credit card on personal expenses. He was sent the bill every month, and would go through it and work out which items he needed to pay for.

    [and then authorises those uses on behalf of the organisation]

    Quite common for the card user to sign off on their expenses as being theirs.

    Of course, in this case, Mr Thompson is claiming that – although he signed off on them (which simply suggests he didn’t check items carefully enough) – someone else had in fact booked them up.

    As several posters here have pointed out, someone else using your credit card isn’t unusual (my son can recite my credit card from memory now, he doesn’t even need to have it with him if using it on line)!

    If the money was paid back, it’s even less of an issue.

    It was more convenient for him and didn’t cost council anything, so no one worried about it.

  31. Better Better Best

    [It is not changing any old 7 people. It is changing 7 Coalition voters to swing back to Labor – that is 7 out of 57 which is about 12% of those poor souls.]
    True but on the other hand people I think are far more “volatile” in their voting alliegence these days. Lots more swingers alot less rusted ons. We will know when the carbon price arrives. If,as I expect,nothing much happens will the electorate punish the man who spent years shouting at them that a price on carbon would mean the end of their world ?

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