Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining the results of the last two weekends’ polling, adds to a picture of Labor’s slight gains over the previous month or two being reversed. The Coalition has picked up two points on the primary vote directly at Labor’s expense, with the Coalition on 49.5 per cent and Labor on 32.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 12 per cent. On respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5; on the previous election measure it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

I’ve had quite a lot to say about the persistent gap between Morgan’s two two-party preferred measure, which is a fairly recent phenomenon. The chart below shows how Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has tracked in the three poll series that publish results for both measures, namely Morgan’s frequent face-to-face polls, their less frequent phone polls, and the monthly Nielsen results. All three began the year more or less in the territory of the 2010 election result, which delivered Labor 65.8 per cent of all non-major party preferences.

Up to a month ago, all three seemed to agree that this had declined by about 10 per cent. Since then, we’ve seen individual Nielsen and Morgan phone poll results (which may prove to be aberrations) showing a revesal of that trend, while Morgan face-to-face has the Labor share lower than ever. Morgan face-to-face has also been consistent in giving Labor the lowest share of the three series throughout this year. I should note as always that the previous election measure has a better track record for predicting the election result in any case.

In other poll news, a fortnightly Port Macquarie-based publication called The Port Paper has published results from an automated phone poll conducted by ReachTEL in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne showing support for Rob Oakeshott at just 14.8 per cent, against 55.3 per cent for the Coalition and 17 per cent for Labor. This has raised eyebrows on a number of counts. Firstly, the question on voting intention was the last of three put to respondents, after attitudinal questions on carbon tax and pokies reforms (both of which were strongly opposed), which is commonly recognised in the polling caper as the wrong way to get an accurate response. Secondly, the principals behind The Port Paper are very strongly associated with the Nationals. And thirdly, Bernard Keane in Crikey today relates that ReachTEL “proudly announced it was an associate member of Clubs Qld, which has this year been campaigning aggressively against the Andrew Wilkie-led poker machine reform push. The Port Paper story fails to disclose that.”

The Port Paper also published a poll from the corresponding state electorate of Port Macquarie before the election in March, and while it was not brilliantly accurate, its errors were not in a direction that would inspire doubts about its motives. The vote for soon-to-be-defeated independent incumbent Peter Besseling was about right (34 per cent, compared with 36.5 per cent at the election), but the Nationals were too low (40 per cent against 52.2 per cent) and Labor too high (14 per cent against 5.7 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,840 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 57
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  3. DavidWH
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    I would be completely surprised if under the following circumstances some form of criminal activity hadn’t taken place under existing law – that an officer of an organisation secretely issues themselves a corporate credit card, uses that card for personal use for an amount of $100k and then authorises those uses on behalf of the organisation. If that type of behaviour is only a civil matter then we have a gaping hole in our criminal law.

    Please note I am not saying all that happened however that is what is alleged to have happened.

    Who says a corporate card was secretly issued and where was this aspect published ?

    Those alleging stuff are either liberals or the media who are seeking someone they have made accusations about to prove themselves innocent, as you are well aware.

    Then there is another law lecturer, who agrees with the law professor from Charles Sturt BB refers to in his post above –

    Ian Dobinson, a criminal law lecturer at the University of Technology, Sydney, said it was unlikely Mr Thomson would face a fraud charge under the NSW Crimes Act as suggested by the federal shadow attorney-general, George Brandis.

    It would need to be proven there had been dishonest deception in the way a financial advantage had been obtained, and this was unlikely to be proven.

    ”This position is based on the facts as we currently know them and at best what we have now is an inappropriate use of a union credit card – just another type of corporate credit card ,” he said.

    ”He may be in breach of union rules and even Fair Work provisions but there is no fraud.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/thomson-unlikely-to-be-charged-experts-say-20110825-1jcja.html#ixzz1W5bY4g2B

  5. I am really intrigued by the increasing desperation of all shock jock and msm outlets to ‘remove this gillard govt’ by any means, really amusing, not because it is funny, but because it is so obvious.
    Can any of the LNP supporters on this blog really think that it is Abbotts or their partys brilliance that is giving them these great poll numbers rather than our pathetic media and cashed up friends delivering the goods.

  7. billy

    The msm are deliberately putting out every bit of rubbish and speculation they can find or make up. Everyone is bamboozled today.

  9. [I am really intrigued by the increasing desperation of all shock jock and msm outlets to ‘remove this gillard govt’ by any means, really amusing, not because it is funny, but because it is so obvious.
    Can any of the LNP supporters on this blog really think that it is Abbotts or their partys brilliance that is giving them these great poll numbers rather than our pathetic media and cashed up friends delivering the goods.]
    Agree 100%. Vested interests are at work here.

  10. billy

    I wonder whether there has ever been a party leader in Australia who has told more verifiable lies than Mr Abbott?

    He has told so many lies that even his followers think that once you have made something up it must be true.

  11. Victoria I agree with the sentiment of the NSW greens David Shoebridge (who is unusually economic in his language):

    http://davidshoebridge.org.au/2011/08/25/police-minister-has-no-answers/

    On the NSW ALP website, which is mostly dedicated to the thoughts of their leader in the upper house (Luke Foley), the subject matter is solar panels – off the pace as usual.

    There were some imaginative suggestions last night as to what should happen to Brandis. ICAC if asked to investigate wont because it will not be able to traverse the courtesy call suggestion. May also have a jurisdictional issue because whatever Brandis did was when he was outside the State.

    Queensland Bar would not do anything for following reasons:

    (a) although a member, Brandis wont have a practicing certificate;
    (b) nothing to do with his role as a barrister – although that is not a barrier for serious criminal or anti-social behaviour (eg violence, tax cheating etc)

    Brandis is a blowhard and self-promoter but nought will else will happen IMHO.

  13. I agree about the MSM media,

    What annoys me more is what do the Coalition/Liberals/Nats think that this nice little “arrangement” will last forever? Do they think it won’t backfire on them badly eventually?

    I would have thought that MSM would be everyone’s enemy, including but not limited to political parties, specialist groups, every day joe public etc?

  14. victoria

    What worries me is that no matter how untrue, the smear is adding to all the previous smears and will stick in people’s minds. As the anti-Labor media types know well.

  16. [I wonder whether there has ever been a party leader in Australia who has told more verifiable lies than Mr Abbott?]

    John Howard, surely? Always and forever, King of the Lying Rodents.

  17. thanks shellbell seems as a lay person this law should be seen to,

    i am so mixed up as to what has supposed to have done,

    i dont think any one could make head nor tail out there any more.

    seemed clear to me once but have not a clue now.

    there is a good link somewhere today where a legal person has a positive opionion it was in the other thread

  18. yes i had some one to the door a while ago, sort of grinned
    smoke v fire type thing, this is the problem, it really is quite awful

    but thats human nature,

  20. lizzie

    A week is a long time in politics. We will have to wait and see.

    Catch you bludgers later.

    Going to get the diagnosis on daughter. Whether she has appendicitis or not,

    Ciao

  21. [What worries me is that no matter how untrue, the smear is adding to all the previous smears and will stick in people’s minds. As the anti-Labor media types know well.]
    It has two 2 years to dissapate and that’s what the Libs will be worried about.

  22. [The msm are deliberately putting out every bit of rubbish and speculation they can find or make up. Everyone is bamboozled today. ]

    I suppose the only upshot is that the polls aren’t reflecting people actually being pro-Liberal, its more that they’re buying into the crappy myths about Labor. If people’s opinions on Labor swing around when/it some of the BS is cleared, then they’re easier to win back than voters who wholeheartedly believe in what Tony’s doing.

  24. Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 3:26 pm | Permalink
    The only thing we can be absolutely sure about in relation to Mr Thomson is that Mr Brandis has made a goose of himself.

    The rest has the status of gutter crawling by the Liberal Party and brothel crawling by ‘The Australian’.

    You do know that it is the SMH that first presented the story and the Union did an audit, which raised the allegations to begin with, which the Union decide not the persue.

    It was also probably someone in the union that leaked this to SMH

    This has nothing to do with Abbott and the Australian, they just picked it up and ran with it

  26. [Can any of the LNP supporters on this blog really think that it is Abbotts or their partys brilliance that is giving them these great poll numbers rather than our pathetic media and cashed up friends delivering the goods.]

    Arunta….

    I think the current polling is a collection of factors coming together to produce these results we are seeing in the polling.

    Now like it or lump it Tony Abbott has performed well as an Opposition Leader. That’s not to say he’d make a good PM.

    He uses simple clear messages to ciriticise the govts policies and it has cut through very well in the minds of the public.

    Hi opposing of the Carbon Tax seemed to be the beginning of his rise in the polls an issue which won him the Liberal Leadership.

    He has successfully played a small target (not being drawn in to release a FightBack style of document outlining policies well before the next election because it did Hewson a lot of damage).

    He has successfully planted the idea in the minds of the people that Gillard and her govt are incompetent and that they deliberately lied to them at the last election and winning because of it. Now regardless of whether this is true or not he has successfully done this…and the Malaysian Solution, Cattle Trade and BER hasn’t helped the image of the govt re: their ability to act competently in govt IMHO.

    But I would say more credit for Labor’s position is due to their unpopular policies and their ability to sell said policies than anything Abbott or the LNP has done. Julia Gillard has also suffered from a legitimacy problem ever since taking over from Rudd and it has never gone away.

    IMHO the media have little/no impact on current polling…no doubt others will agree.

    Remember the old saying that Oppositions don’t win elections…Governments lose them…the Gillard government looks like losing the next one….

  28. [You do know that it is the SMH that first presented the story and the Union did an audit, which raised the allegations to begin with, which the Union decide not the persue.

    It was also probably someone in the union that leaked this to SMH

    This has nothing to do with Abbott and the Australian, they just picked it up and ran with it]
    If you believe that then you’re more politically naive than I thought.

  29. It almost appears that having championed Abbotts ‘Weeks not Months” in terms of longeivity of this minority govt. and their pronounced ‘illegitimacy’ of the PM, that they must be proven right at all costs, and therefore the PM’s continuing individual brilliance and the minority govt’s continuing existence and performance is leading their callous and somewhat hilarious (dirty shovel , really) performance.
    BB was correct in calling the whole media thing , one gret big reality TV performance.
    The judges won’t admit they got it wrong.

  31. [Remember the old saying that Oppositions don’t win elections…Governments lose them…the Gillard government looks like losing the next one….]
    At the moment.

  32. In this alternate universe, the Liberals are in disarray, they are desperate, and they are struggling, being beaten to a pulp, by the charismatic Gillard. The public does not trust Abbott and they fear him

    Opinion poll Liberals 58.5 ALP 41.5 on 30% primary

    Alternate universe

  34. [In this alternate universe, the Liberals are in disarray, they are desperate, and they are struggling, being beaten to a pulp, by the charismatic Gillard. The public does not trust Abbott and they fear him]
    Do you want me to quote Abbott’s satisfaction ratings to you?

  37. dovif

    Please stop putting your thoughts into our mouths. The Libs are desperate to return to power, yes, but no one is saying they are “beaten to a pulp”. They are simply acting as a savage dog does when it is cornered. Situation normal.

  38. Some amusing replies from Mr Abbott in his live blog over at the Daily Telegraph.

    Still sooking over the election is young Mr Abbott.”Julia stole my keys to the lodge”
    [Q “How can the Liberals expect Julia Gillard to hold Craig Thompson to account and ask him to tell the truth for once, when she herself lied shamelessly to the whole electorate
    TA “I guess you’re just reminding me that there’s no honour among thieves!]
    With a straight face
    [TA re the PM “…..for her, the end always justifies the means “]
    This week in Parliament
    [TA “This week has been especially graceless and unedifying. I know that statesmanship tends to be in the eye of the beholder but I challenge any fair-minded observer to find any comparable vitriol and bad temper in John Howard’s performances]

  40. Dovif

    [In this alternate universe, the Liberals are in disarray, they are desperate, and they are struggling, being beaten to a pulp, by the charismatic Gillard. The public does not trust Abbott and they fear him]

    Not just here. You might like to read Kitney in today’s AFR. Clearly Gillard has the better of all of your motley crew. More class, more cajones, more honesty, more spirit than those powder puff Jesuit-trained rent seekers called the Liberal Party.

  42. [Do you want me to quote Abbott’s satisfaction ratings to you?]

    Imagine Gary where the Libs polling numbers would be if they had a leader with a high satisfaction rating.

  43. [Imagine Gary where the Libs polling numbers would be if they had a leader with a high satisfaction rating.]
    It’s the fact that Abbott’s there that still gives Labor a chance.

  44. [Not just here. You might like to read Kitney in today’s AFR. Clearly Gillard has the better of all of your motley crew. More class, more cajones, more honesty, more spirit than those powder puff Jesuit-trained rent seekers called the Liberal Party. ]

    I’m assuming this one isn’t available online, so are there any key quotes?

    Also, Abbott saying that for Gillard ‘the end justifies the means’ is more hilarious hypocrisy.

  45. Gary @ 78

    What exactly is the matter with Dovif’s comment?

    The SMH have been running on this one for months … The (evil..shudder..shudder) Oz are very much the newbies on the block on this one.

  46. gary

    [Do you want me to quote Abbott’s satisfaction ratings to you?]
    Yes please,I only know his self satisfaction rating is at the traditional 100%.

  48. [Imagine Gary where the Libs polling numbers would be if they had a leader with a high satisfaction rating.]

    About the same, but much more likely to win the next election. While Govts do lose elections it is extremely rare for unpopular opposition leaders to win them.

  50. people keep saying to me, why what julia said in qt yesterday
    is that not out in the media to day.

    have not got hanzard but something to do with nsw liberals.

    dont know i say and shake my head. you see most people dont get it

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