Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining the results of the last two weekends’ polling, adds to a picture of Labor’s slight gains over the previous month or two being reversed. The Coalition has picked up two points on the primary vote directly at Labor’s expense, with the Coalition on 49.5 per cent and Labor on 32.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 12 per cent. On respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5; on the previous election measure it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.

I’ve had quite a lot to say about the persistent gap between Morgan’s two two-party preferred measure, which is a fairly recent phenomenon. The chart below shows how Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has tracked in the three poll series that publish results for both measures, namely Morgan’s frequent face-to-face polls, their less frequent phone polls, and the monthly Nielsen results. All three began the year more or less in the territory of the 2010 election result, which delivered Labor 65.8 per cent of all non-major party preferences.

Up to a month ago, all three seemed to agree that this had declined by about 10 per cent. Since then, we’ve seen individual Nielsen and Morgan phone poll results (which may prove to be aberrations) showing a revesal of that trend, while Morgan face-to-face has the Labor share lower than ever. Morgan face-to-face has also been consistent in giving Labor the lowest share of the three series throughout this year. I should note as always that the previous election measure has a better track record for predicting the election result in any case.

In other poll news, a fortnightly Port Macquarie-based publication called The Port Paper has published results from an automated phone poll conducted by ReachTEL in Rob Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne showing support for Rob Oakeshott at just 14.8 per cent, against 55.3 per cent for the Coalition and 17 per cent for Labor. This has raised eyebrows on a number of counts. Firstly, the question on voting intention was the last of three put to respondents, after attitudinal questions on carbon tax and pokies reforms (both of which were strongly opposed), which is commonly recognised in the polling caper as the wrong way to get an accurate response. Secondly, the principals behind The Port Paper are very strongly associated with the Nationals. And thirdly, Bernard Keane in Crikey today relates that ReachTEL “proudly announced it was an associate member of Clubs Qld, which has this year been campaigning aggressively against the Andrew Wilkie-led poker machine reform push. The Port Paper story fails to disclose that.”

The Port Paper also published a poll from the corresponding state electorate of Port Macquarie before the election in March, and while it was not brilliantly accurate, its errors were not in a direction that would inspire doubts about its motives. The vote for soon-to-be-defeated independent incumbent Peter Besseling was about right (34 per cent, compared with 36.5 per cent at the election), but the Nationals were too low (40 per cent against 52.2 per cent) and Labor too high (14 per cent against 5.7 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,840 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 57
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  1. [Yes please,I only know his self satisfaction rating is at the traditional 100%.]
    Take a look at William’s comments in past threads. The numbers are there for all to see.

  2. [While Govts do lose elections it is extremely rare for unpopular opposition leaders to win them.]

    True Ru but still look at Ted Baillieu and Colin Barnett they werent exactly popular opposition leaders yet they still won in the final analysis…

    Of course with Malcolm back the Carbon Tax would sail through…

  4. Sparrow@76
    We always get back to the Conservatives old faithful..Govt’s inability to sell..as opposed to Abbotts great ability to cut through.
    Just for once Sparrow ..do you think if gillard got 24/7 shock jock loving and Abbott got constantly ridiculed, and the MSM faithfully reprted eveything that the PM said as true , and never mentioned Abbott in a positive light, and the cashed up Tobacco companies , Mining companies , clubs industry all took out glowing adds giving much love and support to the PM , that just maybe she could cut through , and just maybe the good news would get some airplay and just maybe if all the above happened , do you think the poll numbers would change…..just maybe.
    If all the above happened and Abbott was in front..even I would vote for him..wait I take that back .

  6. [True Ru but still look at Ted Baillieu and Colin Barnett they werent exactly popular opposition leaders yet they still won in the final analysis…]

    Er did they win in the Abbott sense of the word? 😉

  7. Gary

    [Take a look at William’s comments in past threads. The numbers are there for all to see.]
    I know, after just reading his replies to bloggers I thought I’d report his self satisfaction rating. 🙂

  8. Gary 59,
    And the Libs with the backing of those vested interests are very well funded. Those crocodile tears calling for donations because they are broke I reckon is BS. How does LNP or whoever they call themselves happen to have the seed money to start up another paper in Port Macquarie?

  11. Arunta…

    I think it’s easier for Labor supporters on PB to blame the fact that they’re this far behind on the media than their own policies/leader (whom those Labor supporters believe is a wonderful woman and that they have unquestionably great policies)…to admit Labor were part of the problem they would then have to admit Gillard and her govt’s policies were partly to blame and I don’t think any Laborite is willing to admit this.

    The media’s influence is grossly exaggerated IMHO and by blaming the media all you’re doing is avoiding any self reflection on any reasons beyond the media that may explain partly why they are so unpopular.

  12. Dave two credit cards have been mentioned. One a Diners Club which was issued following proper authorisation and a second card not authorised and organised by the card holder. The HUA specifically mentioned cards (plural) in their press announcement two days ago. If there was only one authorised card then the circumstances change somewhat.

    However if the experts saying no criminal offence applies are correct then this will go away fairly quickly. I still find it unbelievable that a person can misuse a company credit card to the extent suggested and only have to face civil proceedings.

  13. [I know, after just reading his replies to bloggers I thought I’d report his self satisfaction rating]
    Fair enough and correct too.

  15. [I think it’s easier for Labor supporters on PB to blame the fact that they’re this far behind on the media than their own policies/leader (whom those Labor supporters believe is a wonderful woman and that they have unquestionably great policies)…to admit Labor were part of the problem they would then have to admit Gillard and her govt’s policies were partly to blame and I don’t think any Laborite is willing to admit this.

    The media’s influence is grossly exaggerated IMHO and by blaming the media all you’re doing is avoiding any self reflection on any reasons beyond the media that may explain partly why they are so unpopular.]
    So the media have been fair and reasonable? No distortions, no selective reporting?
    News Ltd are reporting all that Gillard says positively?
    Glen, two words come to mind – bull shit.

  16. [I’m assuming this one isn’t available online, so are there any key quotes?

    Also, Abbott saying that for Gillard ‘the end justifies the means’ is more hilarious hypocrisy.]

    Rishane, Kitney said:

    “In language which had people in the public galleries sitting bolt upright, Gillard characterised the opposition’s tactics as descending into “a stinking hole of mud”….the sittings concluded with a whimper from the opposition.”

  17. [Same here. My son is 21 and has a debit card. He has not got around to getting a credit card.]

    Tell him to avoid it like the plague, it’s the start of a slippery slope!.

  18. I thought I’d share with you some highlights from Tone’s MPI yesterday. It was followed by a fine speech from Kate Ellis.
    [Mr ABBOTT (Warringah—Leader of the Opposition) (15:36): After one of the most extraordinarily graceless prime ministerial performances in question time that this House has seen in many a long year, it is worth reminding the House of the words of the current Prime …

    This week marks the first anniversary of the election that nobody won, least of all the Australian people. In the 12 months since last year’s election, thanks to the Greens and Independents, who put this government back into office, we Australians have been saddled with a bad government that is getting worse every day. …

    We also have a Prime Minister with out of control integrity …

    This government is lurching from crisis to crisis. It has a Prime Minister who lacks the courage or the integrity to force the member for Dobell to answer elementary questions …

    The government is rapidly revealing all of the dysfunction and lack of principle which characterised the late New South Wales Labor government. So why should we be surprised when we see the Prime Minister and other senior members of the government lining up now to excuse the inexcusable and defend the indefensible that we have seen reported in connection with the member for Dobell? …

    This is a government which has no plan for our country. …

    This is a truly bad government. Members opposite like to say that everything they do is historic. Well, this is a historic government all right! It is historically the worst. It is historically the worst we have ever seen. Those people who merely say that it is the worst since Gough Whitlam are wrong. They are being totally unfair to Gough Whitlam—who did not lack idealism and who never sold his soul to the Greens and Senator Bob Brown. This is the worst government ever. It lacks integrity; it lacks ideals; it lacks honesty; and it should be gone—and, increasingly, that is what the Australian people want. Be gone!]
    http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/reps/dailys/dr250811.pdf page 56.

  20. With the reported statements by Chris Smith and other shock jocks, I just hope Craig Thomson sues for defamation and they are taken to the cleaners.

  21. [So the media have been fair and reasonable? No distortions, no selective reporting?
    News Ltd are reporting all that Gillard says positively?
    Glen, two words come to mind – bull shit.]

    Gary people have a tendency to view any criticism of the Govt or any reporting of a failure of the Govt as bias. It’s their job to hold the Govt accountable. The media sure reported the failures of the Howard Govt. I was guilty of squealing like a stuck pig whenever the ABC rattled off problems with WC or other policies and felt they were being biased. It’s exactly the same with your mob.

    Need I remind you that sections of News Ltd endorsed Kevin Rudd in 2007?

    Gary if you dislike the editiorials they publish so be it. It’s their right. But in general as Mr Bowe has pointed out you can’t find any evidence of media bias because it’s a furphy.

    Keep blaming the media because all that will ensure is the election of an Abbott Govt.

    I think the extent to which shock jocks have power to persuade swinging voters is small it’s not funny. It is they were have a slant either way but I doubt you could make a case about papers.

    It’s a two edged sword because if and when the LNP wins back govt no doubt I’ll revert to your line of argument and say well they’re not reporting all the good things the LNP Govt is doing and the ABC is being biased for highlighting the mistakes the LNP Govt has done.

    The circle of life…

  23. Sparrow@112
    Exactly sparrow..give us a level playing field and I will gladly accept everything you say , until then , the poll numbers are great , and Abbott surely looks like a landslide win but please don’t tell me its his or his partys brilliance.

  24. To clarify, Ruawake’s return does not mean I have relaxed my zero-tolerance policy towards bully-boy behaviour towards those who have the temerity to oppose the Labor Party. On this basis, “Billy” has just been despatched to the sin bin. I am in no doubt whatsoever that the volume of such incidents of late is a result of Labor supporters having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls.

  25. [I am in no doubt whatsoever that the volume of such incidents of late is a result of Labor supporters having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls.]

    I assumed as much too Bilbo.

  26. [Well, this is a historic government all right! It is historically the worst. It is historically the worst we have ever seen. Those people who merely say that it is the worst since Gough Whitlam are wrong. They are being totally unfair to Gough Whitlam—who did not lack idealism and who never sold his soul to the Greens and Senator Bob Brown. ]

    This from Abbott is another example of the history myth I mentioned last night. No actual proof offered but keep saying that Whitlam is the (now allegedly second) worst PM in Australian history because what he represents is so against what the current Liberals stand for. And I love the anachronism of mentioning the Greens there as if that was a choice Whitlam could also have made.

  27. poroti – I just asked Abbott to say a few words about what a significant and worth piece of legislation the plain cigarette packaging bill was. I trust he will be willing to do so since the Opposition did not oppose it, and they oppose EVERYTHING.

  28. Awesome! Note the number of instances of right-wing projection in just a few sentences:

    [Abbott:

    extraordinarily graceless

    a bad government

    out of control integrity

    lacks the courage or the integrity

    dysfunction and lack of principle

    lacks integrity; it lacks ideals; it lacks honesty]

    Right-Wing Projection – then tendency of right-wingers to project their own behaviour/motivations onto their opponents.

  29. Shh don’t tell Tony
    [Power bill rises not so harsh
    PREDICTIONS that the Australian carbon price will rise once emissions trading starts in 2015 have been challenged by an analysis that found the price would slump dramatically because of an influx of cheap international permits.
    Research by analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance found the carbon price would fall from a fixed $25 in 2014-15 to $16 when emissions trading began in 2015-16.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/power-bill-rises-not-so-harsh-says-survey-20110825-1jcjd.html

  30. gs@122
    [Keep blaming the media because all that will ensure is the election of an Abbott Govt.]
    Mission accomplished as far as they are concerned.
    Also ,which cashed up vested interests campaigned for Rudd and which shock jocks were anti howard , and were the conservative media as anti howard as they were of Rudd and now Julia.

  31. [To clarify, Ruawake’s return does not mean I have relaxed my zero-tolerance policy towards bully-boy behaviour towards those who have the temerity to oppose the Labor Party. On this basis, “Billy” has just been despatched to the sin bin. I am in no doubt whatsoever that the volume of such incidents of late is a result of Labor supporters having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls.]

    William, I think there is truth to that. I for one think you provide a fantastic service for pathetic types like me who have no other outlet to express these opinions. I thank you for the opportunity and I will certainly try my best not to offend anyone. I know I don’t always succeed, but I am conscious of your comments and I agree with them

    cheers, and thanks for the chance to express my opinions.

    😆

  33. [Gary if you dislike the editiorials they publish so be it. It’s their right. But in general as Mr Bowe has pointed out you can’t find any evidence of media bias because it’s a furphy.]
    The Oz? Come now.

  34. Arunta,

    Might as well save your breath.

    You’ll never get them to admit the advantage their side enjoys. They’ll play it down, say you’re exaggerating its effect, etc. I’ve seen it again and again.

    To admit they enjoy the benefit of a rigged playing field would be to admit their side’s inability to compete on a non-rigged field. Because the fact is, if forced to compete on a non-rigged media field the Coalition would be a minor party within months.

  35. MY SAY –

    I was just saying how immensely proud I was of the ALP over plain paper packaging (which I am). I think you are misinterpreting me.

    Interesting that the libs didn’t oppose it. I bet it was because Tony couldn’t be sure some in his own party wouldn’t have crossed the floor (particularly the doctors).

  36. [I think it’s easier for Labor supporters on PB to blame the fact that they’re this far behind on the media than their own policies/leader (whom those Labor supporters believe is a wonderful woman and that they have unquestionably great policies)…to admit Labor were part of the problem they would then have to admit Gillard and her govt’s policies were partly to blame and I don’t think any Laborite is willing to admit this.]

    and exactly the same can be argued in reverse – you also refuse to consider that there is nothing wrong with the policies, and that it could well be a combination of false messages, repeated and taken at face value by the media, that is driving the polls at the moment.

    I am prepared to accept that I could have it completely wrong, and that all these policies, which to me and many others (and to the experts) appear perfectly sound and in good standing with the science and economic outcomes, could be a dog’s breakfast. And that ALL the media are wise to this, 60% of the population have also read through the details of all these policies, and via an informed and well thought out process, have reached that same conclusion. And somehow all us “Laborites” are going through some kind of failure to see all this and we’re all in a delusional state.

    But the reverse doesn’t work, nope, nothing wrong with the media, etc.

    I don’t buy it; not because I’m a “Laborite” but because of common sense and the bleeding obvious.

  37. [I am in no doubt whatsoever that the volume of such incidents of late is a result of Labor supporters having shit on the liver because they’re getting flogged in the polls.]
    Agree Bilbo but any opinion as to why the msm has ‘shit on the liver’ when their team is doing so well?

  38. [To admit they enjoy the benefit of a rigged playing field would be to admit their side’s inability to compete on a non-rigged field. Because the fact is, if forced to compete on a non-rigged media field the Coalition would be a minor party within months.]

    Cuppa, straight to the point, as usual. 🙂

  42. The Claw

    [poroti – I just asked Abbott to say a few words about what a significant and worth piece of legislation the plain cigarette packaging bill was..]
    Looks like Mr Abbott does his blogs like he does his pressers.Seems to have lost interest after 24 . I am sure he would have said it was reallly really good but really really badly done by Labor

  45. DavidWH
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

    I still find it unbelievable that a person can misuse a company credit card to the extent suggested and only have to face civil proceedings.

    I find it a totally low act that guilt is assumed on an ongoing basis without investigations having been completed, nor charges laid, nor a court finding having established guilt.

    Libs sweep away such inconvenient matters when it involves others. They scream like stuck pigs if the same treatment is dished out to them.

    But you know that, of course – you are a lib.

    The time to make the statement you have above is, if and when Thomson is actually found guilty in the normal way.

    In the meantime share with us all YOUR proof of the allegations you are making on an ongoing basis

    *the burden of proof rests on who asserts, not on who denies *

  46. BB@26 (yes sorry a while back just catching up):
    I really hope the Convoy of No Consequence types do go looking for Albo’s office in Newtown. Partly because they’ll get a very unfriendly welcome from an area which is proudly and overwhelmingly pro-gay rights, pro-decent treatment of refugees and pro-action on climate change. And mostly because Albo’s office isnt actually there anyway of course. Imagine a handful of semis and whining winnebagos wnadering inconclusively all day up and down King street looking! what fun

  47. [and exactly the same can be argued in reverse – you also refuse to consider that there is nothing wrong with the policies, and that it could well be a combination of false messages, repeated and taken at face value by the media, that is driving the polls at the moment.

    I am prepared to accept that I could have it completely wrong, and that all these policies, which to me and many others (and to the experts) appear perfectly sound and in good standing with the science and economic outcomes, could be a dog’s breakfast. And that ALL the media are wise to this, 60% of the population have also read through the details of all these policies, and via an informed and well thought out process, have reached that same conclusion. And somehow all us “Laborites” are going through some kind of failure to see all this and we’re all in a delusional state.

    But the reverse doesn’t work, nope, nothing wrong with the media, etc.

    I don’t buy it; not because I’m a “Laborite” but because of common sense and the bleeding obvious.]

    George I do agree that the issue of shock jocks is a clear cut case of favouritising one side over the other. You may be able to make a case out of the media but it is the extent to which they influence opinion polls is what I take issue to. I dont think they influence them as much as others think.

    George there is no doubt a lot of positive aspects in policies advocated by Labor. That is not to say they are in any way perfect or do not contain flaws. I don’t hold the opinion that one side is only good as doing the right thing for Australian’s and the other side is always going to rip them off as others believe on here about the LNP.

    [To admit they enjoy the benefit of a rigged playing field would be to admit their side’s inability to compete on a non-rigged field. Because the fact is, if forced to compete on a non-rigged media field the Coalition would be a minor party within months.]

    Since it is almost impossible to prove rampant bias by MSM that’s not an issue.
    I think many confuse critical analysis of policies and the perception of bias.

  48. The shit in my liver has nothing to do with the polls. (I actually do have shit in my liver but thats not relevant).

    It is the complete rubbish about Craig Thomson. Nothing new has happened, except New Ltd decided Fairfax had had the scoop for too long. So they made up crap about a Iguana type incident that did not occur. Then wham overdrive. It is a commentary on the putrid media not politics, except the putrid members of the Lib/Nat party decided they were on a win/win situation.

    Unions/Fair Work/Prostitutes/PM weave it together and spin.

    I have shit in my liver, they have shit all over their faces.

  49. [You may be able to make a case out of the media but it is the extent to which they influence opinion polls is what I take issue to. I dont think they influence them as much as others think.]

    We’ll agree to disagree on this.

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