GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead up from 56-44 to 57-43, from primary votes of 27 per cent for Labor (down two), 47 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and a solid 14 per cent for the Greens (up two). Taken together with personal ratings, the figures point to a still worsening disaffection with both options. After a slight recovery last time, Julia Gillard is back in the doghouse with 29 per cent approval (down four) and 61 per cent disapproval (down three), but Tony Abbott is also down three on approval to 36 per cent and up three on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott has maintained his one point lead as preferred prime minister, with both down a point to 39 per cent and 38 per cent.
Today’s Essential Research had Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.
In further poll news, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald related yesterday that a JWS Research automated phone poll had the Liberals leading 60-40 in beleagured Labor MP Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. The Weekend Australian also had Newspoll results on a range of issues to do with health policy, from which GhostWhoVotes presents the tables here, here, here and here.
UPDATE: Tasmanian gentleman psephologist Kevin Bonham offers the following historical context in comments:
OK so we have Gillard net sat -32 Abbott net sat -19. I did my bit by giving them both negatives.
The combined net sat of -51 for both leaders is now their worst and the =30th worst on record. The 29 worst readings are:
* Two Hawke-Peacocks from just before the 1990 election
* Four Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Twenty Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* Three Keating-DownersThe record is -76 by Keating-Hewson in Sep 1993.
The “best” net sat of -19 is their worst and the =22nd worst on record. The 21 worst readings are:
* One Hawke-Peacock
* Six Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Thirteen Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* One Keating-DownerThe record is -30 by Keating-Hewson in June 1993
There are only eight cases on record of the PM having a net sat of -32 or worse and a LOpp having a net sat of -19 or worse. These were all Keating-Hewsons (two before the election and six after).
Howard’s worst net sat in his successful term as Leader of the Opposition was -12.
lizzie: 😆
Of course.
I’m a little surprised people here expect Brandis to be accurate about his assertions afterall he is a Liberal. Seriously isn’t that just using the scatter-gun approach and hoping you hit the target?
My wish is that a pollster ask “Would you / Australia be better off if the opposition were in government?”
jaundiced view
At least for me digging holes was an occasional event. Bugger doing it as an occupation like you did. I met a retired Telstra guy years ago who back in his day dug by hand all sorts of trenches etc. .I saw him dig a long narrow slit trench to put in this fence and man what a work of art. I would not have believed anyone could, by hand, dig something so incredibly straight and neat until seeing what he did.
confessions
If a blonde bimbo is on the evening news pointing to “the spot” I shall demand a fee 🙂
lizzie,
But what spot? Carpark?
Who realistically thinks these polls can turn around for Labor within 2 years – is it more than just “living in hope”?
My say, LMFAO are a unc, unc group they sing the hit song, everybody shuffling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LMFAO_(group)
Carey Moore, I’m reffering to the Thomson affair. The soon to be former member of parliament is Rob Oakeshott was right it’s beautiful in its ugliness
@thornleigh,
polls are irrelevant i think atm, I think people have other concerns right now, especially the general public.
billy
Thank you.
[rishane
No, no, no, it’s Julia who is desperate. You must listen properly to what Abbott says 😆 ]
😀
Of course! Abbott would never ever project his own motivations onto another politician, and god forbid he’d ever lie about a female politician.
All these fancy allusions! It’s most likely the shovel was left by a half-cut boofhead who pulled up outside Kathy Jackson’s house, slumped out of his ute (dragging a few empty tinnies with him), grabbed a garden tool from the tray, shat on it and chucked it over her fence. His only “meta” thought would have been “for my brothers…”
Fkn Morgan.
It’s impossible to take anything from their polls due to mixing and matching of phone/face to face, and them using respondent prefs rather then 2010 election prefs.
Mr Brandis has demonstrated that he is an incompetent legal person.
He should be sacked from his Shadow Cabinet position before he does to the country what he is trying to do to Mr Thomson.
[That this decrepit old boiler, the diva of the Gallery, the nasty, vicious, jealous-as-hell Michelle Grattan presumes to be the arbiter of decency, morality and truthfulness is bad enough.
That they actually pay her for the sanctimonious, yin-yang twaddle she dreams up out of her haze of advanced dementia is what really astounds me.]
I really, really needed to read that. I feel so much better now. The woman’s session on RN this morning was an insult to fairness. Taa muchly BB
[Who realistically thinks these polls can turn around for Labor within 2 years – is it more than just “living in hope”?]
They turned against Rudd after two years.
Thornleigh Labor Man
I suggest you learn the concept of cognitive dissonance before you write off the ALP’s chances at the next election.
The longer this government lasts, the worse things will get for Abbott.
Puff
The “spot” over the fence where the object was found.
[Who realistically thinks these polls can turn around for Labor within 2 years – is it more than just “living in hope”?]
Who realistically writes off Labor with 2 years to go – is it just “living in hope”?
[I saw him dig a long narrow slit trench to put in this fence and man what a work of art. I would not have believed anyone could, by hand, dig something so incredibly straight and neat until seeing what he did.]
poroti – one of our sons recently tried construction work for awhile. Said he wanted to do something to clear his head and he thought digging and cementing the drains on new roads would be pure relaxation. We’ve been told that his cementing was so perfect that the bosses would come along and say ‘that’s a …… (his name) drain, that’s not, that is and so one. As a joke he ended up signing his work so there is a freeway in Oz that bear drains perfectly signed by an artist.
He’s back to his other work now but said it was a fantastic eye opener into blue collar work, the dreadful intolerance of some of the bogan types and the awesome companionship of the older blokes. He considers himself lucky to have experienced it.
Let’s just call a spade and spade. The Libs are digging up any dirt they can find on any topic and any person. In the process, the risk digging a big hole for themselves and there is a risk they’ll be buried if some of the dirt they dig hits the fan and sprays back at them.
[Who realistically thinks these polls can turn around for Labor within 2 years – is it more than just “living in hope”?]
2008 with Mr 70% .2PP vote 59 v 41 …….2 years later…… 2PP vote 49.9 v 50.1 . Remember the serious articles being written speculating that we were seeing the demise of the Liberal Party ?
Why does Morgan go to so much trouble to be user unfriendly?
On a working holiday in the UK a few years ago I was a temporary barman in a very busy pub. There was a small group of well dressed professional shoplifters among the ordinary customers. It was truly mind boggling to discover what and where they stole. The matter of fact way they described their various activities and risks they took.
Anyone trying to understand our latest prominent shoplifter could have a read of this link.
http://www.shopliftingprevention.org/whatnaspoffers/nrc.htm
[For almost all non-professional shoplifters, stealing from stores is basically a reflection of a person’s ability (or inability) to cope with a multitude of situations in his or her life. It’s a response to their personal life situations. While these unhappy life situations may not easily be changed (or may recur from time to time) shoplifters must learn how to cope with these situations in a way that’s not harmful to themselves or others. This may not be easy to achieve, because approximately 27 percent of shoplifters caught for the first time have already developed a shoplifting habit or even an addiction. Many admit that it will be hard for them to stop shoplifting… even after getting caught]
[But for the Shadow Attorney-General to make a formal written allegation of crime to the Commissioner of Police and to allege a range of offences that could not possibly be the basis for a criminal charge is beyond sloppy.]
It appears the brandis affair may be deepening, but regardless of the charges that brandis wanted laid against Thomson there are still many unanswered questions.
The police minister has released his version of the phone calls yet brandis has not, why not.
brandis has not released what advice he relied on for the charges, why not.
was any undue pressure experienced or applied by any of the parties involved in this affair, do we know?
can any citizen ring up the police minister to let them know they are wanting charges laid against a political or other opponent
can I ring up the minister and tell him i reckon charges should be made agin someone for treason, no specifics, just a feeling in my bones.
While US presidential polling is very different to the Australian political scene, it is interesting to look down this list and see that just 18 months or so before the 1992 Presidential election, Bill Clinton got 1.7% – yes 1.7% – of the vote and then to win handsomely. Who’da thought it?
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-ii/
SK at 4954
It would be good to see the letter. Normally if a letter is seeking information from a third party it would read, as an example:
“Dear Space Kiddette
We act for John Smith.
We have instructions from Mr Smith to challenge your capacity to sit as a member of the House of Representative etc”
A cold request or assertion, without identifying who you are acting for, is an abuse of the position of legal practitioner IMHO
[Who realistically thinks these polls can turn around for Labor within 2 years – is it more than just “living in hope”?]
They only have to get back to 52-48 in the last campaign week. That is not too difficult.
castle
Brandis has a lot to answer for
[They turned against Rudd after two years.]
No they didn’t! Labor was polling 70% IN PRIMARIES until Gillard knifed Rudd in the back!!!1!
BH
[He’s back to his other work now but said it was a fantastic eye opener into blue collar work, the dreadful intolerance of some of the bogan types and the awesome companionship of the older blokes.]
Sounds like things are the same in the building game. When I was in it for a while way back when I was shocked at level of intolerance and racism.It was like shock jock radio land come to life. I did enjoy watching the bogan racist guys changing tunes when a few big Maori boys were working on site 🙂
shellbell
Not sure if I understood correctly, but whoever has been demanding that the MPS needed to show their citizenship, are no longer required to do so. It is now the end of the matter. i am still bamboozled by the whole thing
[Some very brave predictions in here about Labor winning the next election – I guess some of you really can see into the future?]
evan, can you name those people saying Labor WILL win the next election. As far as I can tell you are the only one saying they definitely won’t.
Even your friend Glen says this –
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 11:42 am | Permalink
I have never called this election 2 years out and would be rightly called a clown had I done so.]
I agree with him.
[No they didn’t! Labor was polling 70% IN PRIMARIES until Gillard knifed Rudd in the back!!!1!]
😀
Yes! They were down in the polls, but the next one (if Rudd had stayed) was going to be 95-5 with a 5% margin of error, I know it!
[No they didn’t! Labor was polling 70% IN PRIMARIES until Gillard knifed Rudd in the back!!!1!]
I call BS on that one.
@Carey Moor/5180,
Funny how you mention that, I do remember how Turnbull was knifed the same way (just the opposite ends of the polling %), and now Turnbull is the preferred alternative to Abbott.
And yet the party hates the man, but wants Abbott?
Bit silly to bring this up.
The public tends to silly things.
New thread.
Oh, I see. Sarcrasm. One of the hardest things to get across on a blog I reckon.